Six theories on why penalties (and power plays) are dramatically down this NHL season

Power plays in the NHL haven't been this dominant in decades.

The average conversion rate this season was 21.6% entering Tuesday night's games, according to ESPN Research. That's the best rate since the 1985-86 season, back when Wayne Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers were scoring at will against helpless penalty kills.

This season's power-play success is part of a multi-year trend. It would be the third straight season with power-play conversion rates higher than 21%, the first time that's happened since the mid-1980s.

But there's actually another trend that undercuts that dominance: Power plays in the NHL have also never been this rare.

The 2.71 power-play chances per team per game in 2024-25 is the lowest average of any season since the stat was first tracked by the NHL in 1977-78. The previous lows were 2.89 in both 2021-22 and 2020-21. Again, it's a multi-year trend: The NHL has averaged under three power-play chances per team per game in five of the last seven seasons.

Teams can't have power plays if there aren't penalty calls. Overall, the average penalty calls per team per game are at their lowest levels for an 82-game season in the last 20 years -- 3.48 penalties on average, with just 8.15 penalty minutes.

In 2014-15, those averages were 4.03 and 9.86, respectively.

Where have all the penalties gone?

"See, I'll say something and then I'll take six penalties tonight," New Jersey Devils center Cody Glass said, with a laugh. "I have no idea, to be honest. With some games you might have none and then some games you might have seven. It's all over the map."

Many players don't even realize power plays are down.

"It was one of those things where I had no idea until I read it about it," Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman said. "I haven't noticed a lot of difference."

In speaking with NHL players, executives, data analysts and former referees, there are a handful of theories about why penalties and power plays have dipped historically low this season.

Here's a look at six of the most compelling ones:

The perils of parity

Entering Thursday night, 14 of the 16 teams in the Eastern Conference were either in a playoff seed or within six points of one. Thanks to the St. Louis Blues' recent surge, the field has narrowed in the Western Conference, but there are still 11 teams either in a playoff spot or within a reasonable distance from the last wild card.

When that many teams believe they can gain entry to the postseason party, every point matters. Which is why the league's parity is a factor in the decrease in penalties and power plays, according to Stephen Walkom, NHL executive vice president and director of officiating.

"When you have the competitive balance that we have in this league, teams just don't want to take any penalties," Walkom said.

The threat of guilt and shame can be a heck of a motivator, too.

"Nobody wants to be the guy that's in the box," Coleman said. "I can understand the decline in penalties because of parity. So many teams are trying to get into the playoffs. It's the importance of every point."

Dave Jackson, NHL rules analyst for ESPN, has observed a palpable difference in players as the games have grown more important in the standings this season.

"You can say that a lot of teams have been already playing playoff games," said Jackson, who was an NHL referee for over four decades. "Early in the season, you get a lot of penalties that are just pure laziness and retaliation. When you're playing in a playoff game, you don't get lazy penalties. You don't get retaliation penalties anymore. All you get are desperation penalties and accidental penalties from just competing too hard."

Given how tightly the standings have been packed, teams have been in playoff mode for quite a while.

Reinforcement of rules

This is tracking to be the second straight season in which penalty calls have technically declined, although the difference between the last two seasons was negligible (3.85 to 3.84). But there's a larger trend: The number of penalties called per team per game has precipitously dropped since the 2005-06 season.

In 2005-06, the number of minor penalties per team per game was 6.49. Five years later, it was 4.05 minors per game. Five years after that, it was 3.66 per game on average. This season, it's been 3.18 on average.

From 2010-11 through 2014-15, the average number of minor penalties per team per game was 3.84. Over the last five seasons, that average is 3.34.

Why have penalties declined in the last 20 years?

"I give the players credit for it more than anyone else," Walkom said. "You would think over 15 years of being called for hooking, you don't want to hook in the hands anymore. You don't want to slash on the hands anymore. So are players more disciplined? Possibly that's a reason for it. Are they taking more care not to take penalties? Possibly."

Players are informed about standards of enforcement every preseason. Devils forward Tomas Tatar, a 14-year veteran, said points of emphasis and the repetition of those rules standards have an effect on players.

"They were harping on us to not to use your stick around the gloves, hooks. That's probably one of the biggest warnings when you play -- you might get called for it," he said. "So we try to protect the hands of the player. I notice these calls getting called immediately if it's somewhere between or if it's on a line.

"You have to adapt. You either do that or you're going to get called on it."

It's possible this emphasis on certain penalties and reinforcement of officiating standards each season has paid off in the declining numbers.

"I think the most compelling argument is that we've reached a tipping point of players who have always played the game a certain way," one NHL executive said.

One of the hypotheticals that always comes up in rules debates: How many power plays do fans really want to see during games? It's a debate the players have themselves, too. Glass said most players would prefer not to have the game decided on special teams, but at 5-on-5.

"That's where you get the best hockey," Glass said. "You want the game to keep moving and it's good to have, if there's a penalty, call it, but if it's ticky-tacky stuff, obviously let us play. That's part of hockey: how rough it is."

Letting too much go?

Given the decline in penalty calls over the last 20 years, are on-ice officials now letting too much go?

The NHL tracks every game for penalties called as well as calls the referees should have made. "We look at missed calls and that percentage isn't up," Walkom said.

Both Walkom and Jackson pushed back on the idea that on-ice officials have allowed players to get away with more lately.

"Our standard hasn't changed. In fact, all we do is reinforce to the NHL standard. We have it for really every penalty now. And so that remains the same," Walkom said. "We support our guys to call it at any point in the game. And if it's not there, we don't want them to make it up."

Jackson said he's attended numerous NHL preseason officiating camps as a referee and an analyst.

"I've watched Gary Bettman talk in front of that room. His message to the guys is, 'We've just spent thousands of dollars bringing you to training camp. We've been showing you videos. You guys know what the standard is. If it meets the standard, call the penalty and I will support you.' And that's always been his message," he said.

Jackson said that consistency doesn't come from evening-up calls or managing a game -- something critics have accused NHL officials of doing for years -- but rather from adhering to that standard.

"It's about being true to the standard. That way the players know where they stand and it's far easier to justify a penalty," he said.

Peaks and valleys

Jackson has seen a certain cycle play out every decade with penalties. "It's a wave. High, then low, then high, then low," he said.

Jackson was an on-ice official during the 2005-06 season. When the previous season was cancelled due to a lockout, the NHL used that down time to revise its rulebook and reevaluate its rules enforcement, with average scoring having reached its lowest point since 1956.

The legalization of two-line stretch passes was one way to break through the defensive systems that had muzzled offenses, but the most aggressive remedy was when the NHL instructed its referees to take a "zero tolerance" stance on all obstruction penalties, such as interference, holding and hooking.

"When we brought in the obstruction standard in 2005, the penalties were way up," Jackson recalled.

Average power plays per team per game jumped from 4.24 in 2003-04 to 5.85 in 2005-06, the highest average since 1987-88. The reeducation of players would continue through the 2008-09 season, when power plays finally settled back down to 4.16 per team per game.

Jackson said that whenever the NHL emphasizes a rule that needs to be enforced, there's a spike in power plays. He points to the 2017-18 season, when power plays rose slightly during a crackdown on slashing, and in 2021-22, when the NHL's crackdown on cross-checking helped power-play chances plateau year-over-year and then rise in 2022-23.

Peaks and valleys. NHL players learn the hard way that the league won't tolerate one nefarious act, and then eventually move on to another underhanded tactic ... until the NHL declares war on that one, too.

"It's almost like cybercrime," Jackson said. "The criminals come up with a plan, everybody's getting hacked, and then [the authorities] figure out a way to stop it. That slows them down for a while. Then they come up with a new crime and numbers spike, and then that gets figured out and numbers come down again."

One theory Jackson buys about the sharp decline in power plays and penalties: The NHL isn't "cracking down" on anything in particular right now. There's no point of emphasis like there was with obstruction or cross-checking.

"There's no teachable moment right now. The game is where they want it to be," he said. "And the players are playing within the rules."

Fear of a dominant power play

In the past 40 years of NHL power plays, one would expect to see teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings show up among the top 10 in that span.

But take a closer look. Those aren't the Gretzky Oilers: The most effective power play since 1984-95 has been Connor McDavid's 2022-23 Oilers unit that converted at an astonishing 32.4%.

And those aren't Sergei Fedorov's Red Wings: Through 71 games this season, Dylan Larkin and the 2024-25 Red Wings had the fifth-best power-play conversion rate (29.1%) in the last 40 years. In total, eight of the 10 greatest single-season power plays of the past 40 years are from 2018-19 to the current season.

As mentioned earlier, this season's conversion rate of 21.6% is the best since 1985-86 (22.2%) on a per team per game basis. There are nine teams with a power-play conversion rate above 25% this season.

All of this success comes from teams having averaged an absurd 15.1% shooting percentage with the man advantage this season. To put that in context: Since the 2005-06 season, there's been only one campaign with an average shooting power-play shooting percentage above 14% (2022-23).

At the recent general managers meetings, the NHL trumpeted "offensive trends" that included a 10.5% league-wide shooting percentage in all situations, which the league said was the highest in 30 seasons.

Conversely, penalty kill save percentages are also at a 20-year low: .850, even lower than in the chaotic 2005-06 season (.860).

During a presentation to the media at the GM meetings, the NHL emphasized that these historic conversion rates play a "large part" in the average number of power plays being down. "Teams don't want to go down a man because of the overall success teams are having on the power play," noted Gary Meagher, NHL senior vice president.

Are the referees aware of this, too? Do the on-ice officials acknowledge that power plays are so good right now that they don't want to give certain teams the man advantage in situations that could put the game out of reach?

"No," Jackson said, tersely.

Generation Fast

At the GM meetings, the NHL proudly boasted that this is the fourth straight season in which average scoring per game was at six goals or better -- the first time in the last 30 campaigns that the league has had such a stretch.

Several factors combined to create that spike in scoring. In the short term, there have been increased shooting percentages and power-play success, plus two rounds of expansion that impacted rosters. In the long term, the rules changes set forth in 2005-06 created a style of play that emphasized offense and encouraged teams to build rosters with more overall speed. The days of hulking players with limited skating ability on the fourth line and in defense corps were waning.

"The game obviously got a lot faster than what it used to be. Guys are not as big. They're more agile, faster," Tatar said. "That comes with defensemen as well. Everybody can skate."

Players we spoke with theorized that speed is a reason that penalties have dropped over the last decade. Gone are the days when the less-skilled would waterski behind star players with a stick hooked around them, according to Coleman.

"Everyone is such a good skater now. I feel like it's a little easier to defend using your feet and your legs," he said.

There's a perception that the NHL has "gotten younger" during the last 20 years, but the data doesn't necessarily back that up. Cathy Squires of Pension Plan Puppets ran the numbers in September 2024 and found the average age of a player in 2023-24 who played half the season (27.72) was higher than it was in 2013-14 (27.36). James Mirtle of The Athletic noted that the average age on opening night rosters this season (28.3) was higher than it was three years earlier (27.6).

Coleman, 33, said he "wasn't the old school, but wasn't quite the new school" either. While the kids haven't taken over the league, he believes the generations that arrived after him in the NHL have created a cleaner game.

"You don't see as many headshots, for example," he said. "I don't know if guys just have a little more awareness. It's just been drilled into our heads [not to do it]. They've probably heard it too since they were little kids."

What it means for the playoffs

Jackson likes to play myth-buster when it comes to power play opportunities in the playoffs.

"In the first round of the playoffs, there are more penalties per game than there are in the regular season," he said. "I think that's because of the discrepancy in the talent. You've got a 1-vs-8 eight or a 1 vs. the last wild-card team, and they're being outclassed, so they just take desperation penalties."

Recently, a great power play has meant great success in the postseason. Travis Yost of TSN notes that six of the last eight Stanley Cup champions had a regular-season power play that ranked in the top eight. The 2019 St. Louis Blues were ranked 11th overall; the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights were the outlier at 18th in the regular season.

Current playoff teams with a power play ranked in the top eight entering Friday night: the Golden Knights, Winnipeg Jets, Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Oilers. The Colorado Avalanche were less than a percentage point outside of that group.

All this is to say that power plays do play a critical role during a portion of the playoffs, and success on the power play is a shared trait among most champions. Will the conversion rates this season, and that astounding 15.1% shooting percentage, carry over to the postseason? There's no reason to believe a multi-season trend of power-play success will not.

But will the lack of power plays in this regular season also carry over to the postseason? The answer is that it might not matter. At some point in each series, the power plays dry up anyway.

Cam Charron, now a data analyst for the Pittsburgh Penguins, noted in a 2023 article that "there are at least 0.4 power plays per game more than expected in the first four games of the first round." But he also found that the refs do eventually put away their whistles late in series and in later playoff rounds.

"The data shows that while power-play opportunities do indeed go up in the playoffs, it's not uniform across the tournament," he wrote. "There's a big spike in power plays in the first few games of the first round, and then a sharp decline later on."

In the end, the postseason might end up looking like the regular season: It doesn't matter if there are historic power-play conversion rates if there aren't any power plays to convert.

Additional reporting by Kristen Shilton.