Legit or impostor? Predicting whether the NWSL teams defying expectations can keep it up

3 hours ago 4
  • Jeff Kassouf

May 15, 2025, 07:56 AM ET

Beware: The NWSL standings table is known to lie around this time of year.

The new season is one-third gone, which is a big enough sample size to anoint some surprise teams as contenders -- or to hit the panic button on some stragglers.

Not every team is what they claim to be, however. There are overperforming teams currently in playoff positions, and struggling teams that should soon climb the standings. Other teams really are as good or as bad as their records say they are.

This is our regular spring tradition of figuring out which teams are for real and which teams are just fooling us, because the winds change quickly in the NWSL. Below is a look -- based on current standings, with win-loss-draw records -- at what reality could look like for each team by season's end.


Kansas City Current logo 1. Kansas City Current (6-2-0, 18 pts.)

Defining result: 2-0 win over Washington Spirit on March 22

Verdict: The team to beat. The Kansas City Current and the Orlando Pride were the clear top two coming into the season, and the Current have largely met the moment. Yes, a recent two-game losing streak exposed some flaws, but no team is without those -- especially in the ultra-competitive NWSL. They turned it around with a 4-1 thrashing of Bay FC on Sunday.

Kansas City still has the most attacking talent in the NWSL and, arguably, the most influential midfield in the league. The Current control the flow of games out of possession and strike quickly and ruthlessly on the counterattack. Their style will keep them competing for the title through November.


Orlando Pride logo 2. Orlando Pride (5-2-1, 16 pts.)

Defining result: 3-2 win over Angel City FC on April 25

Verdict: A contender working through issues. How important was that comeback from 2-0 down to Angel City, to win 3-2 on April 25? It's the only win in four games for the defending NWSL champions, who have lacked finishing prowess and made too many errors at the back over the past month.

So, is it time to panic?

Not yet. Two things are true: Orlando is not the same invincible team that started last season unbeaten through 23 games, and this is still one of the best teams in the NWSL. Opponents have brilliantly defended forward Barbra Banda in 1-v-1 situations recently, but that won't happen all year. A recent slump has been more about individuals underperforming than any lack of talent.

Next up is a Friday home game against Kansas City in what is a developing rivalry.


Washington Spirit logo 3. Washington Spirit (5-3-0, 15 pts.)

Defining result: 1-0 win over Orlando Pride on April 19

Verdict: Ironically overachieving. The Spirit are right where they are supposed to be, rounding out the top three. They're also lucky to be there given their ongoing injury problems. Forward Trinity Rodman started one game before going back to sidelines due to her ongoing back problems. The Spirit's injury list remains depressingly long, although American midfielder Croix Bethune's return to the field was a welcome sight for the team.

At full strength, Washington can hang with Orlando and Kansas City and compete for trophies, because they have both the on-field and coaching talent. But recent losses to NJ/NY Gotham FC and Angel City FC, plus some uncertain moments in a 3-2 win over the last-place Chicago Stars on Saturday, are cause for concern. This team needs to get healthy over the summer break.


San Diego Wave logo 4. San Diego Wave FC (4-2-2, 14 pts.)

Defining result: 4-1 win over Racing Louisville FC on April 19

Verdict: Surprisingly, the real deal. Last year was an unmitigated disaster for the Wave, who entered 2025 shrouded by mystery due to major personnel turnover. San Diego leads the NWSL in average possession, per FBRef, and it has resulted in some of the most entertaining and effective soccer in the league thus far this season. Midfielders Savannah McCaskill and Kenza Dali rank first and second, respectively, in the NWSL in progressive passes.

San Diego's form doesn't look like some kind of early-season fluke, even though the Wave have arguably played a soft schedule so far outside of losses Orlando and Kansas City. San Diego possesses with a purpose. The Wave nearly grinded out a victory with 10 players against Portland on Saturday. This is a multi-dimensional team that will be in the thick of the playoff race.


Angel City FC logo 5. Angel City FC (4-2-2, 14 pts.)

Defining result: 4-3 win over Washington Spirit on May 2

Verdict: Overperforming but optimistic. Look, Angel City is consistently exciting for the first time... ever? This is a young team still waiting for its hand-picked, big-hire coach (Bayern Munich's Alexander Straus) to arrive next month, so the rest of this season should serve as a foundation for what's to come. Angel City has shown that obtaining a playoff spot is still possible despite being in another transition year.

That said, fifth place is flattering for a team that has conceded more goals than anyone else except for the last-place Chicago Stars. Angel City's offense is clicking, but those defensive problems (which have been midfield breakdowns at times) need to improve. Two recent results defined this team's potential and its inconsistency: a 3-2 loss to Orlando after blowing a late 2-0 lead, followed by a 4-3 victory over Washington thanks to a stoppage-time winner.


Portland Thorns logo 6. Portland Thorns FC (3-2-4, 13 pts.)

Defining result: 4-1 win over NJ/NY Gotham FC on April 22

Verdict: Underperforming -- on paper. Portland is the polar opposite of Angel City mathematically. The Thorns have the worst goals vs. expected goals in the NWSL (-5.0), meaning they are mathematically the largest underachievers of the season thus far. They lead the NWSL with 17.0 expected goals -- 4.4 greater than high-flying Kansas City.

Portland has begun to come alive in recent weeks, sparked by a 4-1 win over NJ/NY Gotham FC in April. The Thorns compiled their most complete performance of the season in a 1-0 win over Orlando on May 3. The midfield is far more cohesive now than it was in their opening few games. So, on paper, this team should continue to climb the table. Their past two seasons have been rollercoasters, however, and that might be the reality shaping up here again.


Gotham FC logo 7. NJ/NY Gotham FC (3-3-3, 12 pts.)

Defining result: 3-0 win over Washington Spirit on April 26

Verdict: Underperforming. Gotham FC was one of last year's "Big Four" clubs and was expected to compete for the NWSL Shield again. The team's odds of winning the Shield are quickly fading, but this also should not be a seventh-place team that is only one point above the playoff line.

Esther González is the team's star as the leader of the league Golden Boot race, and what made Gotham special in recent seasons remains true: the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The talent is there, including new arrival Geyse just getting started. This team's biggest worry might be another grueling year as the NWSL squad with the most travel due to the Concacaf W Champions Cup -- both the upcoming finals and the start of a new campaign in August.

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Esther Gonzalez's brace leads Gotham FC to victory

Esther Gonzalez scores twice as Gothan FC defeats Angel City FC.


Seattle Reign FC logo 8. Seattle Reign FC (3-3-2, 11 pts.)

Defining result: 1-0 win over Kansas City on May 2

Verdict: Reality. Seattle endured an ugly, second-bottom finish last year as the franchise waited for its new ownership to close a deal and simultaneously tried to vet inexperienced players on the field. It's paying off early this season. There is finally a longer-term vision for development that is starting to bear fruit, exemplified by midfielder Sam Meza going on loan in the USL Super League last fall and now starting for Seattle.

American Jordyn Bugg is a top young defender at 18 years old; Maddie Dahlien is one of the league's most exciting rookies, and U.S. forward Lynn Biyendolo brings proven scoring success in the league (something the Reign still lack with only seven scored in eight games).

Eighth place, competing for a final playoff spot, is about right -- and it is progress.


Racing Louisville logo 9. Racing Louisville FC (3-3-2, 11 pts.)

Defining result: 1-0 win over NJ/NY Gotham FC on May 9

Verdict: Déjà vu? It's a bad joke -- and a tired one if you're Louisville -- but this franchise has finished ninth in all four seasons to date. There sits Louisville again, right below the playoff line, in ninth place. This is the greatest definition of reality in the middle of the table.

Results have been erratic, from the 4-1 loss to San Diego to a weird 3-3 draw with Portland that was marred by refereeing controversies. Saturday's 1-0 win over Gotham could be a turning point, however. Louisville is creating more opportunities than it is finishing, and the team carries a three-game unbeaten streak into a six-point clash with the Reign on Friday.


Houston Dash logo 10. Houston Dash (3-4-1, 10 pts.)

Defining result: 1-0 win over Seattle Reign FC on May 11

Verdict: Harsh reality. Houston was the trendy pick among pundits to make the worst-to-first type of resurrection that has been previously achieved in the NWSL. The reality is that the "first" part of that was never going to happen but the team could only go up after last year's imbroglio on and off the pitch.

Houston is a vastly improved team, both individually with the likes of winger Yazmeen Ryan, and organizationally under new head coach Fabrice Gautrat. This year's 3-4-3 formation feels cohesive and planned, rather than an experiment without direction. Houston is a long way from being a title contender, but 10th place doesn't quite do justice to what the Dash are doing.


North Carolina Courage logo 11. North Carolina Courage (2-3-3, 9 pts.)

Defining result: 3-2 win over Kansas City Current on April 26

Verdict: Better days ahead. North Carolina's recent switch to a 3-4-3 formation has unlocked the team's potential and added flexibility to a squad that values possession to a fault. A defend-and-counter approach worked wonderfully against Orlando on Saturday.

North Carolina was expected to close the gap on the league's top four, thanks in large part to the flashy offseason acquisition of U.S. playmaker Jaedyn Shaw. But Shaw has not started the past two games. Anything short of a playoff appearance for the Courage is an abject failure. Figuring out how to utilize Shaw is part of the solution to climbing the table.

Right now, this team is the outlier at the bottom of the table.


Bay FC logo 12. Bay FC (2-4-2, 8 pts.)

Defining result: 2-1 loss to Chicago Stars on April 13

Verdict: Unwell. A 2-1 loss at home to the league's worst team in April was a warning shot as Bay FC struggled to find the back of the net. Head coach Albertin Montoya promised a more aggressive approach last week and the team promptly got picked apart by Kansas City from the opening whistle in a 4-1 loss.

Bay FC arguably has more talent than some of the teams it is looking up at in the table, but all that attacking prowess has combined to produce the lowest xG (6.5) in the entire NWSL this season, per FBRef. The second-year club still lacks a clear identity while teams like Seattle and Houston have improved year over year. Bay hasn't been good enough, and the standings reflect that.


Utah Royals logo 13. Utah Royals (1-6-1, 4 pts.)

Defining result: 2-0 loss to North Carolina Courage on May 3

Verdict: Uh oh. Utah was the most improved team in the second half of the 2024 season after Jimmy Coenraets took over as interim head coach (and subsequently earned the full-time job). Now the Royals are right back where they were at the start of their expansion season last year -- literally. They have the same record through eight games, and they have scored one fewer goal.

Forward Ally Sentnor is a bright spot, and the return of Alex Loera from injury could help solidify the midfield, but Utah's attack has been anemic. The Royals produced just one shot on target in a recent loss to North Carolina.


Chicago Red Stars logo 14. Chicago Stars FC (1-6-1, 4 pts.)

Defining result: 6-0 loss to Orlando Pride on March 14

Verdict: This is reality. Mallory Swanson is pregnant and out of the picture this season, which leaves Chicago without the focal point of a plan that already needed more support. The Stars needed to make major offseason moves to add depth and quality, and instead they had one of the quietest offseasons in the NWSL. A 6-0 loss to Orlando on opening night was an augury of the problems to come.

Lorne Donaldson was recently fired as head coach, but the reasons for Chicago's last-place standing are much deeper. There are talented individuals like forward Ludmila, centerback Sam Staab, and goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher. But from depth to difference-makers, this team has not kept up with the NWSL's evolving landscape.

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