Multiple Contributors
Dec 19, 2025, 06:44 AM ET
Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive into Week 16.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
New England Patriots +3 (-115) at Baltimore Ravens
Solak: The Buffalo Bills' win last week over the Patriots was a much weirder game than we wanted it to be. Special teams, explosive runs and key penalties created odd game-script and field-position battles. While the Patriots' strength of schedule is a serious concern, and a loss against the Bills a reminder of their limitations, I don't think it was as bad of a setback as the market seems to.
As a road dog traveling to Baltimore, the Patriots are still in control of their destiny in the AFC East. Win out and they win the division. Their remaining schedule? The Ravens, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. This is their last big game of the regular season, and I expect Mike Vrabel to get them up for it.
The Ravens also have much to play for, as they need to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North race. They shut out a listless Cincinnati Bengals team last week but still have not put together a quality offensive game since Lamar Jackson's return to the starting lineup (only 17 offensive points against the Bengals defense is objectively a bad day in the office). Baltimore's run defense is the best in the league at limiting explosive gains, so this won't be a TreVeyon Henderson game, but the Ravens are only an average pass defense by success rate (12th) and EPA per dropback (15th). I expect Drake Maye to throw the Patriots to a win.
Chicago Bears +1.5 (-125) vs. Green Bay Packers
Bowen: Give me Ben Johnson's run game at home versus the Packers. The Bears rushed for 90 second-half yards in the Week 14 head-to-head matchup, delivering body punches with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Bears control the tempo of this game on the ground, and Caleb Williams makes enough plays outside of structure to cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-112) at Dallas Cowboys
Bowen: The Chargers defense is one of the league's best, allowing only 174.4 passing yards per game. And it will lean on its split-safety coverages to limit the explosive play passing versus Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Take the Chargers to cover on the road.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 46.5 total points (-118)
Solak: Indianapolis' offensive approach in Philip Rivers' first career start was eye-popping. The once highly-explosive Colts offense became extremely incremental. They ran the ball on 19 of their 23 first-and-10s, Rivers averaged 4.7 air yards per attempt and only 2.5 seconds in time to throw, and the Colts' longest pass was 17 yards.
While they'll likely hit a couple of explosives even in this version of the offense, it's reasonable to expect the Colts to play in fast-moving games oriented on field position and situational football from here on out. That sort of approach leans heavily to the under. The defense needs to do its part to win those battles, and it delivered an impassioned effort against the Seattle Seahawks last week. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner might return (practice reports have yet to be released for the Monday night contest), which would give the Colts even more disruption up front.
Even if the 49ers break free against Lou Anarumo's defense, we can still get home if the Colts' neutered passing attack under Rivers produces only 10 or 13 points -- a reasonable expectation given what we just saw.
New York Giants +3 (-115) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Solak: I'm buying the number here, as this line has vacillated between 2.5 and 3 throughout the week. I don't see any 3.5s popping up and would not be surprised if we close at 2.5 before kickoff.
The recent resurgence of J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings' passing game has coincided with two games against the worst pass defenses in football: Dallas and Washington. That is not an exaggeration. By total passing EPA surrendered this season (and by EPA per dropback), the Cowboys and Commanders are 31st and 32nd, respectively.
The Giants are not a good pass defense (22nd in EPA per dropback allowed), but they are leagues better than the past two defenses McCarthy has faced. I think we've seen McCarthy's ceiling this year, and I'm selling him at his peak. I don't have much more faith in Jaxson Dart and the Giants offense. They just played that terrible Commanders defense and didn't exactly look like gangbusters. But the Vikings defense lost two key players in Jonathan Greenard and Josh Metellus, both on IR for the rest of the season, and three offensive line starters for Minnesota missed the walk-through Wednesday, including both tackles. This team is beat up.
Two team, six-point teaser (-120): Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-1)
Bowen: Taking the spread here works given the state of the Commanders defense, a unit that just gave up over 350 total yards to the New York Giants in Week 14, with 146 of those yards coming on the ground. Good matchup for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles run game.
In the other matchup, the Steelers can slow the tempo of this game, trying to limit possessions for Jared Goff and the Lions. I would do the same. But with the spread down to -1, I'm good picking Detroit at home. Too explosive on offense.
Seth Walder's defensive props
0:48
Why fantasy managers should pick up Jeffery Simmons in Week 16
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why fantasy managers should add Jeffery Simmons in IDP leagues ahead of Week 16.
Eagles D/ST to score anytime touchdown (+500)
For all the bad vibes in Philadelphia, the defense is still playing great. The team ranks fifth in EPA per play this season and third since Week 11. When we get that unit against a backup quarterback -- even a good backup such as Marcus Mariota -- the chances of a pick-six or a strip sack leading to a scoop-and-score are increased, particularly with the Eagles being 7-point favorites. I make this +444, so it's only a small value but a fun bet.
Offensive player props
1:36
Why Dopp is hesitant to add Trevor Lawrence in Week 16
Daniel Dopp analyzes if it's worth adding Trevor Lawrence against the Broncos following his big performance against the Jets.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 222.5 passing yards (-113)
Bowen: Lawrence lit up a subpar New York Jets defense in Week 15, throwing for a season-best 330 yards. But this Denver Broncos unit is different, allowing only 196.9 passing yards per game. Look for the Broncos to play heavy man coverage while squeezing the pocket with pressure.
Tyler Shough UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-113)
Solak: A rare spot for the New Orleans Saints, who are 5.5-point favorites at home over the reeling Jets. We might actually see the Saints manage a large second-half lead in this game -- something Shough hasn't done in his three wins as a starter.
While I know most people aren't keyed in on the Jets' secondary availability at this stage in the season, they've been hit by a brutal stretch of injuries since the Sauce Gardner trade. Rookie outside CB Azareye'h Thomas is on injured reserve for the rest of the season, as is trade acquisition Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB4 Isaiah Oliver also is on injured reserve, leaving the Jets with one starter (Brandon Stephens) left at cornerback.
A beat-up secondary might feel like a lean to passing overs, but with Brady Cook in line to make his second career start against an ascending Saints defense, there is blowout potential here that makes a 32-attempt line hard to reach. Since the secondary is so shaky, Shough should have a strong day for completion percentage and yards per attempt, and if the ball moves down the field easily, drives take fewer plays and require fewer overall attempts. The script simply isn't right for a number this high.
Josh Allen 2+ TD passes (+101)
Bowen: Allen has thrown three touchdown passes in three of his past five games, and this Cleveland Browns defense is fading on the tape. This isn't the same unit we watched earlier in the season. Plus, the Browns have allowed two touchdown passes in back-to-back games.
Josh Allen UNDER 33.5 rushing yards (-109)
Solak: The Browns have been one of the worst defenses for rushing quarterbacks this season. Opposing quarterbacks average 8.3 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per rush against Cleveland, both of which are bottom-five numbers leaguewide. Even if you remove kneel-downs -- opposing quarterbacks take a lot of knees against the 3-11 Browns -- they allow only 4.9 yards per rush (22nd) and 9.1 yards per game (31st).
Quarterbacks just don't get involved as ball carriers against a Cleveland defense that pressures the pocket well and has the collective team speed and strength to get passers down when they try to escape the pocket. Allen has seen a big uptick in rushing attempts over the past few weeks, but he has been working his way out of big second-half deficits. That's unlikely to happen again as a 10.5-point favorite over the Browns.
Jaxson Dart OVER 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Walder: Yes, Dart's 1.4% interception rate is better than average, and yes, the Giants have been run heavy, even when Dart has been on the field. But two things I know about interception forecasting are: The chances of a starting quarterback throwing a pick, on average, hover quite close to 50-50, and the spread matters a lot, because it drives game script and the number of desperate pass attempts a quarterback makes.
Because the Giants are underdogs, that pushes the odds of Dart throwing an interception up, to the point that my model makes the over -108. And I don't hate that I have Brian Flores' defense on my side here.
1:07
What does Quinn Ewers at QB mean for Jaylen Waddle in fantasy?
Daniel Dopp breaks down whether fantasy managers should start Jaylen Waddle with Quinn Ewers starting as quarterback.
Quinn Ewers 32+ pass attempts (+253)
Walder: We're leaning into the uncertainty of the Dolphins offense with Ewers at quarterback. Certainly, it's possible they try not to rely on their rookie quarterback too much too soon. But Miami has been middle of the road in terms of pass rate over expectation this season (and more pass heavy than that recently), and they also might not have a choice. If Joe Burrow regains form and the Dolphins fall behind Cincinnati -- and they are 4.5-point underdogs -- they'll need to rely on Ewers' arm to catch up.
D'Andre Swift 60+ rushing yards (+122)
Bowen: Swift has rushed for 60 or more yards in three straight games, which includes the 63 yards he had in the Week 14 head-to-head game versus Green Bay. Ben Johnson's run game is the best I've seen on tape. Take the over.
Keaton Mitchell OVER 22.5 rushing yards (-106)
Bowen: Mitchell has rushed for 66 or more yards in back-to-back games, with at least six carries in each. And he has the juice to create explosive plays on the ground. Let's bet the over versus the New England Patriots in the Sunday night game.
1:14
Field Yates: Thoughts and prayers to anyone who faces De'Von Achane in Week 16
Field Yates reacts to the fantasy performances of De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle vs. the Steelers.
De'Von Achane 120+ rushing/receiving yards (-103)
Bowen: Achane has posted 120 total yards in four of his past five games. So, let's take the positive matchup versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense here. And with rookie quarterback Ewers making his first pro start, expect Achane to be featured in the game plan.
De'Von Achane OVER 26.5 receiving yards (-112)
Bowen: Let's stay with Achane as a pass catcher. Achane caught six passes for 67 yards in the Week 15 game versus Pittsburgh, plus he has topped 30 yards receiving in four of his past six games. Expect checkdown throws and screens with Ewers under center against Cincy.
Solak: Achane has been a solid under bet in the receiving game this year, as his enormous success as a traditional ball carrier has led to fewer touches as a receiver. The Bengals, however, are a great team for RB receiving production, as they play tons of soft zone coverage and have very shaky tacklers in the second level of the defense -- checkdowns can go far with Achane against the Cincinnati linebackers.
With Tua Tagovailoa benched and Ewers in line to start his first NFL game, all Dolphins receiving props are depressed. To insulate his rookie, expect head coach Mike McDaniel to dial up multiple designed throws to Achane, and expect Ewers to be fast to the checkdown when the Bengals pack their downfield zones. With Achane's speed, we can get to this number in a few catches, but I expect the playcalling will get us there over volume.
Kimani Vidal OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-110)
Solak: Great, great Vidal spot here. In the two weeks since Omarion Hampton returned from injury, Vidal has become the passing down back for the Chargers. He has 32 routes to Hampton's 13, and even that number is depreciated because of how much Vidal was kept in pass protection by Eagles and Chiefs defenses that were blitzing at decent rates. The Cowboys don't blitz nearly as much, and Vidal should see even more routes, accordingly. The Cowboys' defense has been an auto-bet for receiving backs, but the markets haven't caught up to Vidal's new role, as Hampton has a higher receiving yardage line than Vidal, despite their shared responsibilities. I will be taking Vidal alts up to 25+ receiving yards, and I'll take him to score a touchdown at +275 or better.
Jameson Williams OVER 4.5 receptions (+109)
Bowen: Williams has exactly seven receptions in each of his past three games, and he's getting loose at multiple levels of the field -- deep throws, crossers, unders. Take Williams here versus Pittsburgh on the indoor turf in Detroit.
Brenton Strange longest reception OVER 16.5 yards (-105)
Solak: Strange is coming off of two relatively quiet weeks against the Colts (three catches for 27 yards) and the Jets (one catch for 26 yards). But both of those defenses were enduring CB injuries that opened up the WR play for the Jaguars. The Jags also had big leads in the second half of both games, which diminishes total passing volume. As 3-point underdogs to the Broncos on Sunday, expect the Jaguars to throw the ball for much of the game. And against an elite CB room featuring Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian, a few more of Lawrence's targets should go to the backs and tight ends. The Broncos defense is 10th in targets per route run to opposing tight ends and fifth in yards per reception allowed. Strange should have a big day overall, but I prefer over on the longest reception in case the Jaguars don't get a high total of plays.
Cole Kmet anytime TD (+370)
Bowen: Kmet has only two touchdown receptions on the season, but the Bears' usage of boot concepts in the low red zone opens the door here for the tight end position.
