The lead-up to the NHL trade deadline is often frenetic. This year, it's been more of a slow burn. Even with a three-week Olympic break in which front office executives and agents had ample time to discuss trades, extensions and other roster movement, the last few days haven't produced the flurry of activity that many had anticipated.
Executives have pointed to several factors clogging the trade market ahead of Friday's deadline:
1. Everyone is adjusting to the new CBA rules. As Greg Wyshynski reported on Monday, that includes the implementation of a playoff salary cap for the first time. General managers are waiting as long as possible to make decisions, especially on player injuries.
2. The new salary retention restrictions also are hampering business. Previously, a player on an $8 million contract could have his salary retained twice -- once through a third-party broker -- and move to a contender for $2 million. Starting this year, a player's salary can't be retained twice within 75 days. So, a team can still offer up to 50% retention, but fitting in $4 million versus $2 million is a big difference.
3. Extremely high prices. A handful of teams have announced they're open for business: the Canucks, the Blues, the Rangers, the Flames and even the Maple Leafs. But it's a buyers' market, and those in the market say they're waiting for more affordable deals on Friday. Some of the biggest would-be acquirers -- the Avalanche, the Wild, the Oilers, the Golden Knights, the Stars and the Lightning -- don't have a first-round pick in the 2026 NHL draft, which is projected to be a strong one.
4. Parity is as strong as ever. It's a snail's race for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference. The picture in the East is super hectic, with the top 10 teams separated by 14 points entering Tuesday. I had one GM say this week he had to see how his team's final two games went before he made decisions on its direction come Friday.
All of this leads to this standstill. But it just takes one trade for the floodgates to open. Here's what the landscape looks like until then.
Race in the Central Division, specifically between the Wild and the Stars. The two teams have been on a collision course for a heavyweight first-round matchup. The Wild made yet another bold move, using a 2028 second-round pick for bottom-six center Michael McCarron. GM Bill Guerin is going all-in to get his team past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Remember, he still must convince Quinn Hughes (eligible for an extension this summer) that it's worth sticking around, so Guerin isn't not done yet. I heard even after the McCarron acquisition that the Wild were still in on Vincent Trocheck.
Meanwhile, the Stars are projected to counterpunch. First, Dallas had to make the tough decision on Tyler Seguin. The center looked fully recovered from his hip surgery and was back to himself before tearing an ACL in December. Out of respect to Seguin, the Stars let him begin his rehab to see if he could possibly return for the playoffs. Seguin worked as hard as he could. But after the Olympic break came the difficult conversation: It was a medical long shot. By placing Seguin on season-ending long-term injury reserve, the Stars will have full access to his $9.85 million cap space. And they're expected to use it.
Then there's the Colorado Avalanche, who haven't advanced past the second round of the playoffs since winning it all in 2022. The Avs have cleared cap space by moving Samuel Girard, and they seem poised to do something. They also have explored a possible reunion with Nazem Kadri.
New entries are a mystery. It's looking as if there will be plenty of turnover from last season's playoff picture. What remains to be seen: how aggressive some of the new teams will be. The Detroit Red Wings, barring an epic collapse, are poised to finally break through for their first playoff appearance in a decade. Last year, Detroit players believed they earned reinforcements at the deadline, but GM Steve Yzerman remained patient. Will he change course this time? Detroit is one team with the assets to take a big swing.
The Buffalo Sabres are an even better story, as they look to break the longest playoff drought in NHL history (14 years). Since mid-December, when Buffalo made a GM change, nobody in the league has had a better record (23-5-2).
The biggest decision seemed to be what to do with pending unrestricted free agent Alex Tuch. New GM Jarmo Kekalainen has had open dialogue with Tuch's representative, Brian Bartlett. But even with extra time to talk over the Olympic break, they aren't aligned on what a new contract would look like. I don't expect them to bridge the gap before the trade deadline, but I also don't expect Tuch to be on the move. They'll punt the decision to the summer. That might not be all. TSN reported Tuesday the Sabres have been in discussion for Robert Thomas, one of the top centers available. I've also heard they're scouting for physical defensemen.
It's a weird year for the goalie market. The Oilers already made their big move, swapping Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry. Despite some early hiccups with Jarry (he has a .863 save percentage through his first 11 starts), it sounds as if they're not done looking for other solutions. Edmonton's focus is now on a third-line center.
The Blues have dangled Jordan Binnington among their available players, but if he moves, it seems more destined to be a summer deal. Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky's contract is up this summer, and it doesn't seem as if he and the team are near an extension. While Florida is keeping this close to the vest, many people I talk to around the league are skeptical that Bobrovsky would be traded, even as the Panthers fall out of the playoff race.
It's unclear if any team even is coveting a goalie right now. The Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes publicly say they're happy with their netminders; privately, some executives believe both teams could be seeking upgrades.
Everyone wants a right-shot D. Besides center, of course, a right-shot defensemen is the most coveted position in the league. Plenty of teams are looking. Few are available. One of those who is generating decent interest is Philadelphia's Rasmus Ristolainen, who can play top-four minutes and brings a physical, playoff-ready game. Since a team would be getting him for two playoff runs, the Flyers set the bar high (a first-round pick, plus more). Philadelphia has no problem holding on to Ristolainen; the Flyers will need a top-four right-shot defenseman next season too.
Open for business doesn't necessarily mean a ton of business. Again, there are plenty of teams dangling big names. The Blues also were in this position last season, and nothing came of it. They went on a run and made the playoffs. GM Doug Armstrong has no problem handling the noise.
The Rangers went as far as to release a letter with their intentions to retool. New York already parted with Artemi Panarin and Carson Soucy, and they're listening on a lot, but there's no guarantee the cuts go deeper than that. The most likely player to be moved is Trocheck. The league is expecting it, and so is the player. There has been plenty of interest from teams other than Minnesota, whose trade offer I believe centers around prospect Charlie Stramel and a 2027 first-round pick as well as another player or prospect. Trocheck holds a 12-team no-trade list and has said many teams on the West Coast are on it, for family reasons. Rangers GM Chris Drury has told peers that because he has Trocheck under contract for three more seasons, he doesn't necessarily have to do anything now. That could just be posturing.
Some teams are total wild cards. The Penguins entered this season looking as if they were just about to embark on a rebuild. However, GM Kyle Dubas and first-year coach Dan Muse have struck all the right notes. Even without Sidney Crosby for a month, Pittsburgh has enough depth to stay firmly in a playoff spot. The team has 11 players who will become free agents this summer, none bigger than Evgeni Malkin. They are not close on a new contract for Malkin but also are not going to trade him. Dubas wants to continue on his path, making hockey trades to reinforce the roster with players in their mid-20s, an area where it is thin.
The Bruins unloaded talent at last year's deadline, making brutal and emotional cuts. But they've been one of the league's early-season surprises, thanks to a strong coaching job by Marco Sturm. GM Don Sweeney said his players have earned "a bump," though he claims it won't be overly aggressive.
Meanwhile, Utah and Seattle have swung big recently. Both were in on Panarin. Eventually, they'll connect.
