Six ways the Iran war could affect you - in charts

10 hours ago 9

Jemma Crew,

Tommy Lumbyand

Daniel Wainwright

Getty Images A woman wearing a brown long sleeved top and beige trousers filling up her car at a petrol station on a sunny day

The eruption of the US-Israel war with Iran has brought with it consequences that extend far beyond the Middle East.

The region plays a key role in global energy supplies and shipping routes, prompting concerns that everything from heating bills to supermarket shopping baskets could become more expensive.

Here are five ways the conflict might affect your day-to-day life.

1. Petrol and diesel prices start to increase

The crisis has caused an immediate rise in fuel prices, as production and transport of oil and gas across the region has slowed or stopped entirely in many cases, but it is unclear how this may play out over the coming weeks and months.

Meanwhile, the most recent data from the RAC motoring organisation shows that since the war began, average UK petrol prices have risen by 4.68p to 137.51p a litre. Diesel has increased by 8.59p to 150.97p.

These early increases are well below those seen in 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In the week before the invasion, unleaded petrol cost an average of 147.77p per litre in the UK. Less than fourth months later, in early July, it had jumped by more than 43p per litre.

In the US, prices for petrol and diesel peaked at over $5 a gallon in June 2022.

Three line charts show petrol and diesel prices in the UK, EU and US since 2021. All follow a similar pattern with increases already happening February 2022 but a spike after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. In the UK it went from £1.48 per litre of petrol to £1.74 with a similar proportional rise for diesel. Prices did come down again with fluctuations in 2023 and 2024. As of late February 2026, just as the US and Israel began their strikes on Iran, petrol prices had already started to tick up in the US, rising from $2.80 per gallon of petrol on 23 February to $2.88 on 2 March and from $3.81 per gallon of diesel to $3.90. There were slight increases in the UK and EU but it is too early to see the impact yet in weekly data.

2. UK gas prices double in just over a week

UK gas prices have doubled since the beginning of the conflict.

The benchmark UK price was below 80p before the conflict began. It briefly hit 171p a therm when trading started on Monday, before slipping back to about 156p a therm.

There have been concerns the current crisis could have a similar impact to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but so far the UK gas price is significantly below the peak of more than 600p a therm experienced in 2022.

That unprecedented rise prompted the UK government to step in with an energy bills support scheme — giving millions of households £400 off their energy bills for the winter of 2022-23.

UK consumers are protected from any immediate change in global gas prices by the energy price cap, which is in place at its current level until July.

But if gas prices stay high, this could translate to a higher price cap for the summer.

A line chart titled ‘Gas prices have jumped after recent major conflicts’, showing the rolling month-ahead futures price for UK natural gas, in pence per therm. In mid-December 2020, the price was around 43p. After the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia, that rose to 540p by 7 March before falling back again to 129p by late April. It then rose to a high of 640p in late August 2022, before falling again. It then rose sharply again, from about 78p on 27 February 2026 to 159p on 9 March 2026, after the US and Israel's attacks on Iran. The source is Bloomberg.

3. Impact of shipping prices could hit consumers later

Traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped after Iran threatened to "set fire" to ships, with about 200 tankers effectively stranded.

Meanwhile, insurance premiums, particularly on vessels considered American, British, or Israeli, have risen significantly because of the perceived higher risk of attack.

Last week, data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed the cost of hiring a supertanker to move oil from the Middle East to China reached an all-time high of more than $400,000 (£298,300) per day, almost double the cost the previous week.

Sanne Manders, president of logistics technology platform Flexport, says rising fuel costs means carriers are likely to start raising rates globally, not just in the Middle East, as transport becomes more expensive.

The vast majority of the world's traded goods are transported by sea. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), shipping costs are an "important driver of inflation".

But while rises can affect prices of imports at the dock within a few months, the impact on prices at the cash register "builds up more gradually, hitting its peak after 12 months", it said in analysis from 2022.

The IMF said last week it was "too early" to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the region and globally, as this will depend on its extent and duration.

4. Fertiliser prices up almost a quarter

Fertilisers are a crucial part of food production. They are relied upon by farmers to give crops the nutrients they need to grow enough food, and the Middle East is a major producer of key fertiliser ingredients.

The Strait of Hormuz waterway is a key route for fertiliser and for natural gas which is used to produce fertilisers. The halting of traffic there has prompted fears of shortages and increased prices.

In addition, QatarEnergy, one of the world's biggest exporters of gas and a producer of urea for use in fertiliser, has stopped production following "military attacks" on its facilities.

The benchmark US price of urea hit $578 a tonne on Monday, soaring by almost a quarter. Experts say it is too early to tell if the rise in fertiliser prices will translate to higher prices on supermarket shelves and that any change wouldn't be instant.

5. Flights could become more expensive

These are the highest prices the industry has seen since 2022, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Fuel typically makes up 20-40% of airlines' operating costs. This means flights could become more expensive, while any shortage of fuel could mean some flight cancellations.

However, the impact might not be equal across the board.

Many airlines, such as British Airways and EasyJet, use contracts to get their fuel at fixed or capped prices for months, or even years, in advance.

By contrast, a number of large US carriers do not do this and could be exposed to short-term price increases as a result.

6. Inflation's downward trend less certain

Inflation, the rate that prices rise, has been falling in the UK and globally in recent months.

In February, UK inflation fell to 3% and the Bank of England (BoE) said before the current conflict it believed inflation could reach its 2% target by as soon as April.

In the US, inflation eased to 2.4% in January, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while the Eurozone was expected to see a rise from 1.7% in January to 1.9% in February, after sustained falls.

There are concerns the war could reverse the overall downward trend, meaning prices would rise at a faster rate for consumers.

If that happens, central banks across the world may be less likely to cut interest rates in the months ahead, as they try to curb rising prices.

Analysts are now speculating there may be fewer cuts than expected this year in the UK, and some are predicting a rise.

This would mean more expensive mortgage rates for people on deals that "track" the BoE's rate and for those fixing new deals. On the other hand, banks could pass on any increased rates to savers who would get higher returns on their money.