Six biggest questions and everything on the line heading into Champ Week

7 hours ago 6
  • Alexa Philippou

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    Alexa Philippou

    ESPN

    • Covers women's college basketball and the WNBA
    • Previously covered UConn and the WNBA Connecticut Sun for the Hartford Courant
    • Stanford graduate and Baltimore native with further experience at the Dallas Morning News, Seattle Times and Cincinnati Enquirer
  • Charlie Creme

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    Charlie Creme

    ESPN.com

      Charlie Creme projects the women's NCAA tournament bracket for ESPN.com.

Mar 3, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

Three days into March and the madness has commenced.

Six teams featured in Thursday's top-16 reveal lost on Sunday. Upsets popped up left and right, with sub-.500 Georgia beating Tennessee in Knoxville, Virginia besting North Carolina in Chapel Hill and Ole Miss prevailing over LSU in Baton Rouge. Sarah Te-Biasu's overtime buzzer-beater wasn't just a great winning shot; it put Maryland back in the conversation for hosting NCAA tournament games and might have bumped Ohio State out of it.

The Power 4 regular-season titles were decided over the weekend, as well.

South Carolina and Texas shared the SEC crown, but a coin flip by conference commissioner Greg Sankey determined that the Gamecocks would be the No. 1 overall seed in the league tournament. NC State and Notre Dame also shared the ACC title, while TCU ousted Baylor to win its first Big 12 championship.

Saturday's action was similarly eventful, as USC cemented its status as an NCAA title contender by sweeping the regular-season series against UCLA to clinch the Big Ten title.

And to think the best of March is yet to come.

With Champ Week tipping off Tuesday and NCAA tournament bids set to be punched over the next two weeks, we look at the biggest questions that will impact the women's NCAA tournament bracket.

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0:34

Marcus Freeman is loving this Olivia Miles buzzer-beater

Olivia Miles nets a clutch 3 for Notre Dame to finish the third quarter versus Louisville, and Marcus Freeman shows his appreciation.

Which teams will secure No. 1 seeds?

Charlie Creme: Texas, USC, UCLA and South Carolina are the top seeds in ESPN's updated Bracketology through Sunday's games. But no team has completely locked up a No. 1 seed, a rarity heading into Champ Week. Texas and USC look like good bets, however. Each of them can secure a top spot by getting to its respective conference tournament final, and reaching the SEC semifinals should be enough for the Longhorns. If both avoid a major upset early this week, they will be 1-seeds.

UCLA also should be able to hold on to a No. 1 seed, as long as the Bruins make a trip to the Big Ten title game. But they'll drop off the top line if they fall short of the final -- and if Notre Dame wins the ACC tournament championship.

If the Fighting Irish and UConn both cruise to titles, South Carolina also might need to win the SEC tournament to remain a No. 1. The Gamecocks' résumé -- an NCAA-leading 13 Quadrant 1 wins -- screams No. 1 seed, but the committee placing them on the 2-line in Thursday's top-16 reveal indicated vulnerability for South Carolina. With less competition to boost their case, the Huskies will need the teams in front of them to suffer an upset or two to jump up to a top seed.


Which teams will host the first and second rounds?

Creme: If Sunday's results proved anything, it's that the situation with the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds is still evolving. Five of the eight teams on those two lines lost games on the regular season's final day, and now anyone from No. 11 overall (Oklahoma) to No. 20 overall (Baylor) could be in or out of the top 16 come Selection Sunday.

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Highlight: Georgia builds momentum with upset of No. 11 Tennessee

Mia Woolfolk leads the Lady Bulldogs with 20 points while De'Mauri Flournoy adds 18 to secure a 72-69 win over the Lady Vols.

SEC tournament results will dictate a lot regarding which teams will host NCAA tournament games. The SEC heads into Champ Week with seven teams in the top 16 and an eighth -- Tennessee -- just on the outside looking in. Reaching the semifinals of their respective tournaments is the key for the SEC teams involved -- Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee -- as well as with North Carolina in the ACC, Ohio State and Maryland in the Big Ten and Kansas State and Baylor in the Big 12. If any of these teams reach the semifinals, they'll host.

The Crimson Tide would face LSU and Ole Miss would face Texas in the SEC quarterfinals. Those will be games to watch. Kansas State likely will need to beat West Virginia in the Big 12 quarters to keep its spot. The Buckeyes and Terrapins are lined up to face Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals.


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0:24

TCU hangs on at buzzer to win program's first Big 12 title

Baylor's last-second heave is off the mark, securing TCU's first Big 12 regular-season title.

How will injuries impact Champ Week and NCAA tournament seeds?

Alexa Philippou: Injuries popped up in significant ways this past weekend, particularly among teams that suffered upsets. Tennessee lost star Talaysia Cooper to an apparent ankle injury midway through its regular-season finale, while UNC faltered without standouts Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly (both of whom Tar Heels coach Courtney Banghart said will play in the NCAA tournament).

LSU and Baylor also dropped their respective contests without leading scorers Flau'Jae Johnson (shin, will miss the SEC tournament) and Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (day-to-day, knee). And Kansas State is still without top player Ayoka Lee, who has been dealing with a foot injury for much of the season and intends to return for the NCAA tournament. The availability -- and on-court productivity -- of these players will not just impact how Champ Week pans out but their teams' respective ceilings once the Big Dance arrives.

Creme: Johnson is the biggest name on the list, and Sunday's outing illustrated how LSU is affected when it doesn't have its big three of Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams. The Tigers once looked like a lock for a No. 2 seed, but that's no longer the case. If LSU can't figure out a way to win without Johnson, a No. 3 seed looks much more likely.

North Carolina is in a similar situation. The Tar Heels have dropped two straight games. Sunday's loss to Virginia was damaging to their chances to host, and they are struggling to fill the void of the missing Ustby and Kelly. Without them, losing out on a top-four seed seems likely.

Kansas State also looks like it is running out of gas without Lee. Iowa State's Audi Crooks torched the Wildcats for 36 points on the inside on Sunday during a loss that might ultimately cost Kansas State a host spot if the Wildcats don't reverse their recent stretch of three defeats in four games. Getting Lee back would be the best way to do that.


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2:01

Audi Crooks goes off in Iowa State's big win

Audi Crooks drops 36 points and 10 rebounds in a blowout win for Iowa State vs. Kansas State.

What's at stake on the bubble?

Creme: The bubble has been thin all season and will remain that way without upsets in some of the smaller conferences. Virginia Tech and Arizona are the only teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble with a realistic chance of making the field. With Washington and Iowa State each picking up a big win on Sunday, their spots in the field feel more secure. That leaves Minnesota, Princeton, Harvard, the Hokies and the Wildcats as the five teams for three spots.

The Ivy League currently has three teams in the field, but it's a tenuous hold -- and two of the three are guaranteed to lose another game during Ivy Madness. Princeton and Harvard likely will match up in the semifinals. Another Crimson loss -- they are 1-3 against the Tigers and Columbia in the regular season -- probably would knock them out. If either or both Virginia Tech and Arizona win a quarterfinal game in their tournaments, they would be in the field -- and perhaps even knock out the loser of the Ivy Madness title game.

The Golden Gophers are the wild card. They have been safely in the field for two months, with a solid NET ranking consistently in the 30s. However, they have been slumping lately, and Minnesota's most recent significant win came on Feb. 9 over Indiana. An opening-day loss to Washington at the Big Ten tournament could knock the Gophers out and open the door for any of the others to grab a spot.

The best-case scenario for the Big Ten would be a Minnesota win in that game, almost ensuring a record 13 teams from the Big Ten in the field, the result of both the size of the new Big Ten and the lack of other viable NCAA tournament candidates from the Big East and the mid-majors.


What conferences might be bid stealers?

Creme: Richmond from the Atlantic 10 and South Dakota State from the Summit League will make the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens in their conference tournaments. But these are the only surefire bid-stealing leagues.

Other teams that have dominated their conferences -- UNLV (Mountain West), Fairfield (MAAC) and James Madison (Sun Belt) -- would be in the bubble mix should they lose, but they don't bring strong résumés. Those three are a combined 2-9 in Quadrant 1 games (with JMU accounting for both wins). Their status might come down to how early or late they lose in their conference tournament -- and what happens to the likes of Virginia Tech and Arizona in their leagues.


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0:45

The numbers behind No. 4 USC's victory over No. 2 UCLA

Check out the numbers behind USC's victory over UCLA to claim the regular-season Big Ten title.

Who will win player of the year?

Philippou: Just like the NCAA title race, the player of the year conversation has been open much of the season. But after this past weekend, USC's JuJu Watkins might have emerged as the front-runner.

Watkins has continued on her superstar trajectory as a sophomore, likely leading the Trojans to a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive season. Her efficiency has improved, and turnovers are down. Her ability to read opposing defenses has grown. And with added help around her, she can exert herself even more defensively. But her pair of sensational performances against UCLA over the past few weeks -- she averaged 34 points on 46% shooting (50% on 3-pointers) in those games and made her impact felt in every area on the floor -- are impossible to ignore. And she also was a force in USC's other marquee win, at Connecticut (25 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks) in December.

Notre Dame sophomore Hannah Hidalgo and UCLA junior Lauren Betts have been Watkins' primary competition. But Betts faltered head-to-head versus Watkins and the Trojans, while Hidalgo's case might have suffered down the stretch of the regular season. Entering Sunday, the Irish guard had shot 29.5% in her previous five games, and Notre Dame was coming off back-to-back losses, failing to win the ACC outright. Voters might be swayed, however, by performances in conference tournaments, so the next week could still hold weight in this debate.

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