Alex KirklandMar 3, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
At the Santiago Bernabéu on Feb. 19, the mood was euphoric. Real Madrid had emphatically beaten Manchester City 3-1 to go through to the Champions League knockout phase. After a difficult start in the competition -- losing to Lille, AC Milan and Liverpool, and missing out on the top eight -- anything now seemed possible. The winners of two of the last three editions, and a record 15 throughout their history, were instantly re-installed among the favourites to lift the trophy in 2025.
Key to that turnaround was the definitive "arrival" -- six months after signing -- of Kylian Mbappé. His hat trick against City was the highlight of Madrid's season so far, shaking off an unconvincing start which led some critics to ask whether his signing had made the team worse. This was his answer. Now Mbappé was talking about "making history" at Madrid, and journalists were asking if he could match the impact of all-time top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo at the club.
Many of the doubts circling Madrid earlier in the season looked to have been answered. Against City, they had coped without long-term defensive absentees Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão, and hadn't regretted failing to recruit a successor for Toni Kroos in midfield. Federico Valverde had filled in seamlessly at right-back. Dani Ceballos was in career-best form in the middle of the pitch.
But Saturday's 2-1 defeat at Real Betis in LaLiga -- one which saw Barcelona and Atlético Madrid climb above Real in the title race -- saw those doubts resurface. Despite the City win, Madrid's domestic form has been poor, with one league win in five games. Ceballos is injured, and Valverde isn't fully fit. Now, Real face the most awkward opponents possible: local rivals Atletico in Tuesday's Champions League round-of-16 first leg. It's a game where Real Madrid will have to prove themselves, all over again.
The defence
Madrid were already a player short at the back after they didn't replace Nacho Fernandez last summer. Then Carvajal (in October) and Militão (in November) both suffered ACL tears. David Alaba has only just recovered from the same injury. But in the win over City, two players did enough to make those worries disappear: Valverde, and Raúl Asencio.
Asencio, 22, only made his debut in November. It's not just that he wasn't in coach Carlo Ancelotti's first-team plans this season. He wasn't even the most highly-rated young defender at the club. That's Joan Martinez, 17, whose progress has also been halted by a long-term injury. Asencio stepped in and has excelled.
"Raul has been a surprise to everyone, me included," Ancelotti said last month. Against City, he was outstanding, providing the assist for Mbappé's opening goal, and not once looking overawed.
At right-back, Valverde made sure that Carvajal wasn't missed in the slightest. The Uruguayan -- more often found in central midfield -- easily dealt with City's Savinho and Omar Marmoush. If you didn't know, you'd never have guessed he wasn't a natural defender. Ancelotti has jokingly called Valverde "the third-best right-back in the world" when he's had to fill in for Carvajal or Lucas Vázquez. But now it's clear: he's a significant upgrade on the latter. The only issue is a nagging injury, which saw Valverde miss Madrid's last two games. It's not an exaggeration to suggest the Atletico tie's outcome depends, in part, on his fitness.
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The midfield
The emergence of Asencio apart, the importance of Dani Ceballos to Real Madrid's season has been the most significant -- and surprising -- factor in the team levelling up. Kroos' retirement left a vacancy for a deep lying, ballplaying midfielder alongside Valverde or Aurélien Tchouaméni. Ceballos, 28, fits the bill.
Previously inhibited by frequent injuries and inconsistent performance, he has seized what might have been his last chance to make a case for his Real Madrid future.
Ceballos is always busy, always on the ball, with the highest percentage of completed passes -- 94.5% -- in LaLiga this season. He started 16 games in all competitions between November and February. Then he suffered a hamstring injury in Madrid's 1-0 Copa del Rey win at Real Sociedad last week. A two-month absence is expected.
"I'm very sad to have to stop in what I felt was my best moment," Ceballos said.
He'll be missed against Atletico, and so will Jude Bellingham, suspended after picking up his third yellow card in the Champions League this season. Ancelotti will have to choose between Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga and Luka Modric to make up his midfield pair, with Brahim Díaz -- who scored in the first leg against City -- expected to replace Bellingham.
The attack
A team that boasts Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo -- plus Bellingham, when available -- needn't worry too much about goal-scoring. Even in a misfiring league phase, Madrid still scored 20 times in eight games, followed by six playoff goals against City.
Mbappé's hat trick at the Bernabéu buried any remnant of an "Mbappé debate" and made it 28 goals in 40 appearances for Madrid this season. Ancelotti admitted that the forward "wasn't at his best" against Betis on Saturday -- he played 75 minutes until being replaced by Endrick with Madrid chasing an equalizer, after having a tooth removed last week -- but overall, his form has steadily improved in 2024-25.
Vinícius hasn't always been so consistent, but he has delivered in Europe, with seven goals in eight Champions League games this season. His performance at the Etihad made City fans regret the "Stop Crying Your Heart Out" Ballon d'Or banner -- in support of Rodri -- which they displayed pre-match.
"Okay okay okay!!!" Vinicius tweeted after the second leg. In the Champions League, nobody doubts The Best winner's ability to be a difference-maker. And alongside him, Rodrygo has made himself near-undroppable in these fixtures, starting both legs against City.
The coach
Ahead of this season, much of the discussion around Madrid centred on whether Ancelotti could fit his "fantastic four" of Mbappé, Vinicius, Bellingham and Rodrygo into the same starting XI, especially in the toughest games. The two matches with City -- albeit a diminished version of a once great team -- suggested that the answer was an unequivocal yes.
Ancelotti has found a 4-4-2 shape -- with Bellingham and Rodrygo dropping into midfield when out of possession, leaving Mbappé and Vinicius as a front two -- which gives the defence enough protection. The proviso: that the forward players continue to work as hard as they have in recent weeks. That didn't happen as Madrid slumped to a 2-1 defeat at Betis on Saturday, after taking an early lead.
"If we play like this, we won't win on Tuesday," Ancelotti admitted. "I hope this will wake us up. Lately we'd been more organized and more compact, and today we weren't able to do that."
Against Diego Simeone's battle-hardened Atletico Madrid, there'll be no room for complacency. Atletico are a team -- mirroring their coach -- defined by their attitude. In a hard-fought 1-0 win over Athletic Club on Saturday which saw Atletico move above Real in the LaLiga table, the biggest cheer from the Metropolitano crowd came for two late, crunching tackles from midfielder Conor Gallagher. Simeone celebrated as if Gallagher had scored a last-minute winner. If Real are to progress to the quarterfinals, they'll have to match that intensity.
