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NFL Nation, ESPNNov 27, 2024, 06:50 AM ET
The Week 13 NFL schedule for the 2024 season begins with a great slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know for the holiday's three matchups.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each contest. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each matchup, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game. Plus, we look at the best moments from each team's Thanksgiving history.
Let's start with the Bears and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for the 20th time.
Jump to a matchup:
CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB
Bears (4-7) at Lions (10-1)
12:30 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 O/U)
Bears storyline to watch: Wide receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per target in Weeks 1-10 to averaging 1.9 air yards per target after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that came behind the line of scrimmage against the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a touchdown. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league high over the past two weeks. Detroit's defense has allowed 4.3 yards per target on passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is the fourth fewest in the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Courtney Cronin
Lions storyline to watch: On a short week, can the Lions deliver their first Thanksgiving victory since 2016? Although they're off to their best start in 90 years, Detroit will try to limit distractions during the annual holiday game, as coach Dan Campbell's message this week was to rest, recover and focus on the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus points in three straight home games and will try to continue that pace. "We haven't won on Thanksgiving in a while, and that's something we want to change," quarterback Jared Goff said following Sunday's win over Indianapolis. -- Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Lions will be the seventh team in the past 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving as the NFL's highest-scoring offense. Each of previous six teams went on to win their game.
Bold prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having another very nice season, with 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed in 2024, which is well below the 1.2 average for outside corners (per Next Gen Stats). -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit's offensive line ranks 12th in run block win rate, and the team is third in rushing attempts per game. As David Montgomery deals with a shoulder injury on a short week, expect the Lions to lean even more on Gibbs. The Bears' defensive front ranks 26th in run stop win rate, so Detroit's ground game could have a big day. See Week 13 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games, and four of their past five games have gone under the total. Read more.
Kahler's pick: Lions 28, Bears 21
Moody's pick: Lions 30, Bears 17
Walder's pick: Lions 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (by an average of 11.0 points)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: This is the second-most common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions' 22 meetings. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving series 11-8, including three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit last won in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams improving under OC Thomas Brown ... Cairo Santos accepts blame for 'stink' with blocks ... How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks' worst enemy
Giants (2-9) at Cowboys (4-7)
4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to watch: The Giants come in reeling and on the verge of implosion. They've dropped six straight, and players called their effort "soft" against the Buccaneers off the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 during that stretch and is relying on Tommy DeVito, previously the third-string quarterback, to save them. It's going to be difficult. DeVito was sacked four times in Sunday's blowout loss, and the Giants' offensive line is in shambles at the tackle position, which won't help against Micah Parsons & Co. -- Jordan Raanan
Cowboys storyline to watch: Can they put together a winning streak? Can they actually win a game at home? The Cowboys last won two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have yet to win a game at AT&T Stadium this season. They have trailed by more than 20 points in each of their past six home games, including the playoffs, which is an NFL record. But this is the Giants, who are coming off an embarrassing Week 12 performance. And the Cowboys have won seven straight games against them at AT&T Stadium. -- Todd Archer
Stat to know: This will be just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a pair of quarterbacks with fewer than 10 career starts will meet on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have played and won in each of those games, with Cooper Rush joining the likes of Tony Romo, Drew Henson and Chad Hutchinson.
Bold prediction: There will be at least 10 total sacks in this game. The Cowboys should easily take down sack magnet DeVito, and the Giants' pass rush ought to have the upper hand against Dallas' weak offensive line. -- Walder
7:12
Can Mike McCarthy save his job, and is Bill Belichick a good fit for the Cowboys?
Stephen A. Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Tedy Bruschi debate whether or not Mike McCarthy might be able to still save his job or if Bill Belichick would be a good fit for the Cowboys.
Fantasy X factor: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular-season games without quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy points per game. With Rush under center, he should get plenty of looks, especially because the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play teams with losing records this season. Read more.
Kahler's pick: Cowboys 17, Giants 12
Moody's pick: Cowboys 26, Giants 19
Walder's pick: Cowboys 19, Giants 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett tried to recover a blocked winning field goal attempt. The ball was booted forward by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins at the 2-yard line. Miami connected on its next field goal attempt and won 16-14. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for Hall of Fame, but when? ... Is the Cowboys' wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? ... Inside the wild Cowboys win against the Commanders
Dolphins (5-6) at Packers (8-3)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins are winless under coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures under 40 degrees -- and temperatures in Green Bay are expected to drop below freezing. McDaniel said his team is well-aware of the narrative about its inability to play in cold weather. But Miami is bringing one of the most efficient offenses over the past month into this matchup. No NFL team has scored on a higher percentage of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins' 56.3%. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Packers storyline to watch: The Packers might have finally ironed out their red zone issues. They scored touchdowns on all five of their red zone drives (including three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday's win over the 49ers after ranking 27th in touchdown percentage inside the 20 before the game. Because the Dolphins rank seventh in red zone defense, this Thanksgiving contest might show whether that's for real or a fluke. -- Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers caused three or more takeaways for the sixth time this season against the 49ers, which is the most in the NFL. They scored 22 points off turnovers, which is their most in a game since Week 17 of 2022.
Bold prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will record two or more sacks. The rookie pass rusher has really been coming on strong lately. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in pass rush win rate for the second straight week (42.1%). -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins running back De'Von Achane. He is crucial in this must-win game for Miami, as it looks to get back into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one of its most dangerous playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy points in four of his past five games. The Packers' defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season, making his dual-threat skill set especially valuable. See Week 13 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in games when it's 32 degrees or below under coach Matt LaFleur, including the playoffs. Read more.
Kahler's pick: Packers 28, Dolphins 27
Moody's pick: Packers 34, Dolphins 28
Walder's pick: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by an average of 6.5 points)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: This is just the third time the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving. The other matchups were a 1923 win over the Hammond Pros and a 2015 loss to the Bears. Against Chicago, Green Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Read more.
Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill's traffic citations dismissed after officers' no-show ... McDaniel hints at 'tantrum' to avoid Calais Campbell trade ... Jacobs, rushing game give Packers something to rely on
