Bubble watch: Sizing up road to the Frozen Four

The men's college hockey season is hitting high gear, with conference races heating up and the selection of the NCAA tournament field less than two months away. While there's some separation at the top, with Boston College and Michigan State posting key wins of late, the grouping is tight after that as teams battle to secure their spots in the 16-team tournament for a chance to reach the Frozen Four in St. Louis.

The NCAA field includes the winners of the six conference tournaments -- Atlantic, Big Ten, CCHA, ECAC, Hockey East and NCHC -- and 10 at-large teams based on the PairWise rankings. As things stand, Hockey East and the Big Ten are gobbling up the at-large spots, with both leagues looking strong and deep. In the current projection, six Hockey East teams make the cut (with two more on the bubble) and four Big Ten teams are in.

Conference tournament championship games are scheduled for March 22, with the NCAA tournament selections to be announced March 23. Regionals will be held March 27-30, with the Frozen Four on April 10 and 12.

Here's a look at where the NCAA field stands, broken into tiers based on how secure each team's spot is, with teams listed in order of the PairWise rankings as of Jan. 30. Each team's résumé includes an outlook by ESPN college hockey analyst Andrew Raycroft.

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Frozen Four or bust

Boston College

Record: 18-4-1, 11-3-1 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 3 vs. Northeastern (Beanpot semis); Feb. 10 vs. BU/Harvard (Beanpot consolation/championship)

Numbers to know: Ryan Leonard leads the country in goals per game (0.83), with 19 in 23 games. ... BC has not given up an even-strength goal in its last six games.

Raycroft's take: Coming off a sweep of crosstown rival BU, the Eagles have solidified themselves at the top of the polls and PairWise rankings. Led by first-round NHL draft picks Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault, BC has a deep, talented forward group. Goalie Jacob Fowler will be a Mike Richter finalist, and along with an experienced D core, the Eagles are No. 2 in the nation in goals against (1.74 per game).

Michigan State

Record: 20-3-3, 11-2-3 Big Ten

Key games: Feb. 7-8 home-and-home vs. Michigan

Numbers to know: Michigan State has posted wins over Boston College, Western Michigan and Minnesota, with a 4-1-2 combined record against those teams, which are all in the PairWise top 6.

Raycroft's take: Adam Nightingale continues to lead the Spartans' resurgence as one of the premier programs in the country. The Big Ten leaders have just three losses on the season, all to top-16 teams. World Junior legend Trey Augustine is the backbone for this group in the crease and Isaac Howard, a first-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning, leads the nation in scoring (1.50 points per game).

Safe and sound

Minnesota

Record: 19-6-3, 10-4-2 Big Ten

Key games: Feb. 14-15 at Michigan; Feb. 21-22 vs. Ohio State

Numbers to know: Jimmy Snuggerud has a goal in five straight games and 11 goals in his last 12 games. ... Brody Lamb is tied for second in the nation with eight power-play goals.

Raycroft's take: The Gophers are the highest scoring team in the country at 4.0 goals per game, led by third-year captain Jimmy Snuggerud. Bob Motzko is in his seventh season at Minnesota, and along with his four first-round draft picks, the Gophers are tournament tough. Even with three straight losses (two in OT), the Gophers are still in position for a No. 1 seed.

UConn

Record: 14-8-2, 7-6-2 Hockey East

Key games: Jan. 31 at Providence; Feb. 21 vs. Maine

Numbers to know: The Huskies are unbeaten in their last seven games, including a win and tie at Maine, where the Black Bears are 9-2-2 on the season. ... UConn also has wins over BC, UMass-Lowell, Quinnipiac and Sacred Heart, all of whom are currently projected in the NCAA tournament field.

Raycroft's take: Coach Mike Cavanaugh is on the verge of leading his Huskies to their first-ever NCAA tournament appearance. UConn is unbeaten in January, thanks in large part to the play of the goalie tandem of Tyler Muszelik and Callum Tung. Offensively, sophomore Joey Muldowney is scoring at a rate of just over a point per game in the very tough Hockey East.

Maine

Record: 15-5-3, 7-3-3 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 7-8 at Providence; Feb. 21 at UConn

Numbers to know: Maine is third in the country in scoring defense (1.78 GAA) and scoring margin (1.61 per game).

Raycroft's take: Despite losing last season's top scorer Bradly Nadeau, Ben Barr and the Black Bears find themselves in the top 10 of PairWise for the second straight season. Four of their five losses have come against teams in the top 7 of PairWise as they've played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Sophomore goaltender Albin Boija is in the top five nationally in wins and GAA, and should be a stalwart down the stretch.

Western Michigan

Record: 17-4-1, 10-1-1 NCHC

Key games: Feb. 14-15 vs. Omaha; Feb. 21-22 at Arizona State

Numbers to know: Western Michigan is the only team in the country in the top five in both scoring offense (3.55) and scoring defense (1.82). ... The Broncos have allowed only four power-play goals all season.

Raycroft's take: The Broncos have the best penalty kill in the nation at 92.7% and fifth-year senior goalie Cameron Rowe is 12-1 with a .926 save percentage. They have won six in a row since the calendar turned and are 10-1-1 in NCHC play. Their balanced scoring attack, 10 WMU players have double-digit point totals, should bode well come regionals.

Denver

Record: 18-6-0, 7-5-0 NCHC

Key games: Jan. 31-Feb. 1 vs. Omaha; Feb. 7-8 at Arizona State

Numbers to know: Denver ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring margin (first, 1.79), goals per game (second, 3.75), goals allowed per game (sixth, 1.96), power-play percentage (first, .318), penalty kill percentage (ninth, .851) and faceoff win percentage (third, .550).

Raycroft's take: The defending champion Pioneers started the season 12-0 but have since wavered a little. However, a David Carle-led team cannot be overlooked and will certainly be a force in March. Leaders Jack Devine (1.38 points per game) and Zeev Buium (1.14) continue to dominate, and don't forget goaltender Matt Davis and his heroics from last season.

On solid footing

Providence

Record: 15-6-3, 5-5-3 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 7-8 vs. Maine; Feb. 14-15 home-and-home vs. BU

Numbers to know: Providence went 10-1 in nonconference play, with a pair of wins over both Arizona State and Colorado College, plus wins over Clarkson and Dartmouth of the ECAC.

Raycroft's take: The Friars have lost four in a row but still land in the top 10 of PairWise because of the strength of Hockey East. Another team with a very balanced attack (13 players with at least nine points), Providence will be battle tested and rely on its heavy identity come regionals.

UMass-Lowell

Record: 13-7-3, 6-5-2 Hockey East

Key games: Jan. 31 at BC; Feb. 8 at UConn; Feb. 22 at Providence

Numbers to know: UMass-Lowell has excelled away from home, going 9-1-1 in road games or on neutral ice. Its best home performance came in early December with a shootout win over BC.

Raycroft's take: The largest turnaround in college hockey belongs to the River Hawks. Last season's 8-24-4 record is in the rearview mirror, especially after sweeping fellow Hockey East opponent Providence on the road this past weekend. UMass-Lowell is an experienced team with a strong forecheck that could present problems in the one-and-done scenario of tournament play.

Boston University

Record: 13-9-1, 9-5-1 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 3 vs. Harvard (Beanpot semis); Feb. 10 vs. BC/Northeastern (Beanpot consolation/championship)

Numbers to know: BU is third nationally in scoring (3.65 goals per game), with Cole Eiserman sitting eighth with 0.64 goals per game and fourth with seven power-play goals.

Raycroft's take: BU is heading into trophy season coming off back-to-back losses to rival BC. The Terriers are looking to make it to the Frozen Four for the third straight year under coach Jay Pandolfo. Offense is not a problem for this high-flying team led by freshmen Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman, and the Terriers look to get a defensive bump from freshman goalie Mike Yegorov, who looked good in his collegiate debut this past weekend against BC.

Ohio State

Record: 15-7-2, 8-5-1 Big Ten

Key games: Feb. 21-22 at Minnesota; Feb. 27-28 vs. Michigan

Numbers to know: Four Ohio State players have at least 20 points on the season, including Aiden Hansen-Bukata, who is fifth nationally in assists per game (0.86).

Raycroft's take: The Buckeyes have lost four of five in Big Ten play but are still firmly within the at-large field. Coming off a down season after making the NCAA tournament in 2022-23, Ohio State is led by Northeastern transfer Gunnarwolfe Fontaine. (What a hockey name!) A tough Big Ten schedule lies ahead and will challenge Scott Rohlik's group.

In the field -- for now

Michigan

Record: 14-10-2, 8-7-1 Big Ten

Key games: Feb. 7-8 home-and-home vs. Michigan State; Feb. 14-15 vs. Minnesota

Numbers to know: Michigan's offense can be explosive, with 12 games scoring four or more goals, but the Wolverines also have been shut out four times.

Raycroft's take: The Wolverines are under .500 since the start of December but do have wins against ranked teams Michigan State, Arizona State and BU. TJ Hughes and freshman Michael Hage lead the way with better than a point per game. This is a talented group that has the ability to come together in the last month of the season.

Quinnipiac

Record: 15-8-2, 9-3-1 ECAC

Key games: Jan. 31 at Dartmouth; Feb. 8 vs. Clarkson; Feb. 28 at Clarkson

Numbers to know: Quinnipiac ranks fifth in the country in penalty kill percentage (.878) and 10th in scoring defense (2.32 GAA).

Raycroft's take: Just two years removed from winning the national championship, the Bobcats are 9-2-1 since the start of December. The ECAC leaders have a program with a strong identity, led by coach Rand Pecknold, and is built for the second half of the season. Four NHL draft picks on the back end anchor this team and freshman Dylan Silverstein (2.12 GAA) has been solid in net. While Quinnipiac is on the right side of the at-large bubble for now, any slip-up would likely make the ECAC a one-bid league.

Arizona State

Record: 14-9-1, 9-5-0 NCHC

Key games: Feb. 7-8 vs. Denver; Feb. 21-22 vs. Western Michigan

Numbers to know: Ryan Kirwin in tied for fourth in the country in goals per game, scoring a conference-high 16 in 24 games. ... Arizona State is 7-2 in its last nine games against ranked opponents, including back-to-back wins at Denver in late November.

Raycroft's take: The Sun Devils are thriving in their first season of NCHC hockey. Sitting in third place with a 9-1-1 record in its last 11 games, ASU is an older team built through the transfer portal that seems to be jelling at the right time.

One-bid league champs

Minnesota State

Record: 17-7-2, 12-4-2 CCHA (No. 17 in PairWise)

Key games: Feb. 7-8 vs. Augustana; Feb. 21-22 at Lake Superior State

Numbers to know: Minnesota State has allowed only 1.58 goals per game, the best mark in the country, and has allowed two goals or fewer in 15 of its last 16 games.

Raycroft's take: The CCHA figures to be too close to call until the final weekend. The Mavericks are currently leading the way under second-year coach Luke Strand. Minnesota State is leading the nation in goals allowed per game because of its workhorse goalie Alex Tracy and his .941 save percentage. Look for Michigan Tech and Bowling Green to also challenge for the CCHA bid by the end of the season.

Sacred Heart

Record: 15-9-4, 12-6-2 Atlantic (No. 28 in PairWise)

Key games: Jan. 31-Feb. 1 at Niagara; Feb. 22 vs. Bentley

Numbers to know: Sacred Heart is 2-2-1 against ranked opponents, including a 1-0 loss to UConn on Jan. 25, when it held the Huskies to 17 shots on goal.

Raycroft's take: The Pioneers are leading a very competitive Atlantic conference by the slimmest of margins, with Niagara, Bentley and Holy Cross right on their heels. Freshman goalie Ajeet Gundarah has led the way between the pipes, giving up more than three goals just once all season, while junior forward Felix Trudeau is scoring more than a point per game. The Atlantic conference always seems to come down to the last weekend and this season will be no different.

On the bubble

New Hampshire

Record: 11-9-3, 3-8-2 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 14-15 at Maine; Feb. 28-March 1 home-and-home vs. BC

Numbers to know: UNH has outshot its opponents by a 707-557 margin, but has outscored it foes by a much slimmer mark (69-61). ... The Wildcats also have given up four short-handed goals and seven unassisted goals on the season.

Raycroft's take: Coach Mike Souza has his team battling in the mix of an extremely tough Hockey East again this season. The Wildcats lost five conference games in a row in January and will need a strong finish to move up the standings.

Wisconsin

Record: 11-12-3, 6-9-1 Big Ten

Key games: Jan. 31-Feb. 1 at Minnesota; Feb. 14-15 at Ohio State

Numbers to know: Wisconsin has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country, dropping seven of eight against Denver, Michigan State and Minnesota, but the Badgers are 2-1-1 against Michigan and get another shot at the Gophers this weekend. ... Wisconsin is fourth in the country in faceoff win percentage (.549).

Raycroft's take: Mike Hastings' second season at Wisconsin sees the Badgers scrambling to make the NCAA field after a 2-5-3 start. Sophomore Quinn Finley is tied for fourth in the nation with 34 points, while Ryland Mosely and Gavin Morrissey find themselves in 15th with 28 points each. Tommy Scarfone is trying to fill the void left by last year's Mike Richter Award winner Kyle McClellan.

UMass

Record: 13-10-2, 4-7-2 Hockey East

Key games: Feb. 7 at UConn; Feb. 14-15 home-and-home vs. BC

Numbers to know: The Minutemen's final 10 games are against teams ahead of them in the PairWise rankings, so they will have an opportunity to move up. ... The UMass power play is second in the country with a .301 conversion rate.

Raycroft's take: The 2021 national champion Minutemen are the eighth Hockey East team in the top 18. The UMass offense is being carried by junior forward Cole O'Hara, who is third in NCAA scoring with 35 points, while sophomore goalie Michael Hrabal, a 6-foot-6, second-round draft pick who is property of the Utah HC, has a .924 save percentage.