DESTIN, Fla. -- A 16-team College Football Playoff model featuring the top five conference champions and 11 at-large teams is gaining traction following SEC spring meetings this week, but the next step in playoff expansion for 2026 and beyond will depend on how quickly the sport's leaders can make a flurry of decisions.
A critical component is the SEC's choice between staying at eight league games or moving to nine, a topic ACC sources say could be revisited in their league after years of being dormant if prompted by playoff expansion. The lynchpin to those scheduling decisions is one thing every conference seems to agree on: the need for clarity about how the CFP selection committee ranks its teams, starting with how strength of schedule is determined and applied.
"I do think there's a need for change," SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said of the ranking protocol Thursday at the conclusion of his league's spring meetings. "... How do you make those decisions? It's hard, and we trust the committee to do that, and I respect the people in there, so this isn't a criticism of the people. This is wanting to understand the decisions. We have to have better clarity on the criteria that inform those decisions."
Currently, strength of schedule is one of several factors not weighed in the committee's ambiguous protocol -- language the FBS commissioners wrote at the inception of the four-team playoff in 2014. There's a sense among some athletic directors in both the SEC and ACC that moving to nine conference games is feasible -- if the committee doesn't penalize teams for losing two or three games against strong opponents.
Some SEC athletic directors stressed this week that they would only favor a nine-game league schedule if the conference is guaranteed four playoff spots -- also the Big Ten's preferred model.
"If we're not confident that the decision-making about who gets in and why and what are the metrics around it, it's going to be really hard for some of my colleagues to get to the nine games," Texas A&M athletic director Trev Alberts said. "We've got a timeline that's getting tight, and we recognize that. It seems like everything is coming to a head. In a way it's a little bit frustrating, in another way it feels good because eventually, it feels like we're actually going to get some of this dealt with."
CFP leaders have set Dec. 1 as a deadline to determine the future format, and Sankey said he wants to make a scheduling decision in 2026, but didn't specify when. The FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua are scheduled to meet in-person on June 18 in Asheville, N.C. Sankey was asked if his conference would be unified on a format by then.
"We'll see," Sankey said.
Multiple ACC sources said the conference would prefer a 5+11 model, and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has publicly supported it at his league's spring meetings this week.
"It has always been our first choice," Yormark told ESPN. "It's fair and rewards on-field performance. I'm not surprised SEC coaches like it."
The Big 12's administrators agree.
"The construct of the CFP wasn't to give one or two conferences more value. It was supposed to be the best way to conduct a real national championship," UCF athletic director Terry Mohajir said. "I think a five plus 11 is the best way to do that, and it gets the best teams in."
If Sankey can bring his athletic directors onto the same page as his coaches, who this week voiced strong support for a 5+11 model (but with eight conference games), the Big Ten would likely be the lone league in the room pushing automatic qualifiers.
"[We're] kind of important," Sankey said, "a bit important in that decision."
The Big Ten and SEC have the bulk of control over the playoff's format in 2026 and beyond -- something the other FBS commissioners and Bevacqua agreed to when they signed a memorandum of understanding for the new six-year deal.
"If we do want to have a national tournament, we do have to get everyone on the same page and everyone has to work together," Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin said.
The ACC's considerations of a nine-game league schedule had been tabled for a few years for multiple reasons. Several schools already have existing rivalries with SEC schools, plus there is a built-in agreement with Notre Dame. The ACC doesn't necessarily have to decide that for the 2026 season -- it's something that could be phased in, according to a source.
Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne said two of his main priorities as the playoff discussions move forward are access and having "a pretty clear understanding of what gets you in, what doesn't."
"I know last year I talked about a lot of what I read was two versus three losses, and that was concerning," Byrne said. "Granted, ultimately, it's up to you and the play you have on the field, and you have to recognize that, but I also do believe that when you looked at the bullet points for the CFP, strength of schedule was the first bullet point listed. Trying to get some clear understanding of how is that weighed in the room is important. Our conference because of the play on the field, has deserved the benefit of the doubt at times to be strongly considered for the CFP."
On Thursday afternoon, the SEC provided members of the media with a six-page packet that included color-coded charts using multiple metrics to illustrate the league's dominant schedule strength. Sankey said the task for determining the CFP's strength of schedule component is striking a balance "between human and machine," referring to the old BCS computer formula.
"Whether you agree or not, that's what we're looking at," Sankey said of the packet, which included ESPN's Strength of Record, Bill Connelly's SP+, Kenneth Massey's metric, ESPN's Football Power Index, and ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric. "That doesn't mean every one of these should be inserted into the CFP, but I think you have to consider what it means, because there's other ratings and evaluation tools we've looked at that are much like these results."
While the issues are on the table, the CFP's management committee is notorious for missing its own deadlines. Sankey this week didn't rule out the possibility of the 12-team CFP remaining in place in 2026.
"Can I see a scenario? Sure, I can see a scenario," Sankey said. "But is that the most likely scenario? Come back for more. I said - genuinely - we're interested in a model. We're not committed to that model, and you've seen that play out this week, where people have different ideas."
The question is if the Power 4 leagues can put their differences aside -- quickly.
"We need to work well together," Sankey said. "The emotional maturity needed right now is higher than ever."
ESPN's Andrea Adelson contributed to this report.
