Liz Loza
Daniel Dopp
Dec 28, 2024, 12:00 PM ET
Liz Loza and I sleighed on Christmas, going 3-1 with our Christmas Day props and we're looking to keep that success rolling here with the truncated Sunday slate. The end of the regular season is in sight, but we're just getting warmed up, so let's take a look at the rest of our Week 17 Props that Pop! -Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Brock Purdy OVER 281.5 passing and rushing yards (-118)
The 49ers may have been eliminated from the postseason, but Purdy figures to produce while attempting to spoil the Lions' 1-seed dreams. Not only is Purdy averaging more than eight yards per pass attempt, but he's also the QB8 in rushing scores (four). Both of those set up nicely in what's expected to be a high-scoring (50.5) and relatively close game (+3.5) versus a banged-up Lions' defense.
Detroit has, not only, given up the second-most passing yards over the last four weeks (289.5 p/gm), but also the second-most rushing yards to QBs (41 p/gm) since Week 13. Given that Purdy has cleared 300 passing yards while additionally registering double-digit rushing totals in two of his last three outings, the 49ers' QB figures to flirt with 300 total yards on Monday night. -Liz Loza
Running back props
Saquon Barkley OVER 126.5 total rushing + receiving yards (-118)
Jalen Hurts won't go on Sunday which means that Kenny Pickett will be under center for the Philadelphia Eagles. That's not a great sign for Philly's down-the-field threats, but it is a great sign for people relying on Saquon to get another monster workload. Saquon is already leading all RBs with 2,114 total scrimmage yards this year, and Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing title is within reach as well!
This matchup looks pretty good for Barkley as well, especially since the Dallas Cowboys won't have CeeDee Lamb and will be extremely limited on offense. That should lend to more time of possession for Saquon to do Saquon things. Truthfully, only four running backs have topped 126.5 total yards against Dallas, but Saquon's not your average running back and the team will likely rely on him rather than trusting Pickett to do too much. I have faith that Saquon can best this line, especially since he's done it on seven different occasions in 2024. -Dopp
Ray Davis 25-plus rushing yards (-120)
Predicting game flow is always a tricky endeavor, but Davis has been involved enough to garner meaningful touches even if the New York Jets manage to cover (+9.5). Davis has registered at least five totes in four of his past five outings. Meanwhile, New York's run defense has softened as of late, giving up over 130 rushing yards in back-to-back efforts. With a 91% chance of rain expected at Orchard Park, the strong-legged Davis figures to see plenty of action as the Bills attempt to clinch the No. 2 seed. -Loza
Alexander Mattison OVER 61.5 rushing and receiving yards (-118)
Alexander Mattison has rotated in and out of the Las Vegas Raiders ' backfield, but when he's been given the lead back duties he's produced. For context, Mattison has recorded five games of 16 or more touches and has registered at least 61 scrimmage yards in three of them. With Zamir White and Sincere McCormick both out, Mattison figures to log double-digit opportunities. It's additionally worth noting that Mattison out-targeted Ameer Abdullah in Week 16, indicating his secure role in the passing game.
Additionally working in Mattison's favor is the matchup. New Orleans Saints ' defense has allowed the second-highest YPC to opposing rushers (4.9) on the season. More specifically, the Saints' have given up an average of 132 total yards to RBs over the last four weeks. Mattison may not be an efficient runner, but he'll get a boost in the Big Easy. -Loza
Receiving props
Jordan Addison OVER 4.5 receptions (-110)
Addison has been on a tear the second half of this season, taking advantage of defenses keying in on fellow WR Justin Jefferson. Addison has eight-plus targets in five of his past six games and he's topped this mark in four of his past five games, which include two monster games where he had eight receptions and more than 130 receiving yards in both contests. Addison has really come to life for the Vikings down the stretch and I don't expect that to change in the biggest game of their season.
The Packers have been really good against opposing teams passing games, but 23 different wide receivers have had at least five catches against them. This isn't a super high number, especially when players like Demarcus Robinson, Alec Pierce and Dante Pettis have been able to hit it. For what it's worth, the last time the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers played (in Week 4), Addison had three catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. I'm very much expecting him to be more involved thanks to an increase in targets over the second half of the season. -Dopp
Jahmyr Gibbs 30+ receiving yards (-105)
Gibbs was extremely involved against the Chicago Bears in what was his fourth game without David Montgomery since 2023. In Week 16, Jah topped 150 total yards, including four catches for 45 yards. In fact, he has eight games this season with at least 28 receiving yards, and he's topped at least 37 yards receiving in his past three games without Monty. Jahmyr hasn't missed a beat when given a bigger workload and there are plenty of reasons to expect that to continue here in Week 17 against the 49ers.
Not only is this a potential game for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the Lions need to continue to rely on their offense to win games with how banged-up their defense is. The 49ers have given up at least 27 receiving yards to seven different running backs this season, and most of those guys don't have the same top end speed or explosive big play ability as Gibbs (De'Von Achane being the closest comp who hit this line). Gibbs will be busy again as the Lions lean on him in both the run and pass game here in Week 17. -Dopp
