NFL playoff picture projections: Updated chances to make the postseason, win divisions

1 week ago 14

ESPN staffDec 20, 2024, 08:15 AM ET

We're through Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season and into Week 16. Although the postseason is still three weeks away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field?

We used ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoff picture to finish in specific seeds and the potential for teams out of the playoff picture to finish with the top draft pick. Here's everything you need right now.

Last update: Dec. 20 at 8:15 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC | Seeds | No. 1 pick

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans have all clinched their respective division titles. The Steelers are also officially in the playoffs, and they can clinch the AFC North with a win against the Ravens. That means all four AFC divisions could have champs by Saturday night.

The Ravens, Chargers and Broncos all look good to make the playoffs, so there might not be a ton to play for in this conference beyond Week 16.

The Ravens can clinch with a win against Pittsburgh, or losses from Indianapolis and Miami.
The Broncos can clinch with losses from Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.
The Chargers can clinch with losses from Indianapolis and Miami.

Six teams have been eliminated in the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all clinched spots in the playoffs, and the Packers are on the verge of joining them. They need a win against the Saints. But they can also get in with a loss from the Falcons and then a loss from either the Seahawks or Rams. Beyond that, there is still a lot up in the air in the NFC.

The Eagles take the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South appears to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, though Tampa Bay is favored (85% to win the division). The NFC West is wide open. The Rams have a 54% chance at the playoffs and 53% at the division. But the Seahawks and Cardinals are both very much alive there.

The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, a Falcons loss and then an additional loss from either the Rams or Seahawks.

The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eliminated, and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are headed in that direction. Seven NFC teams have elimination scenarios this weekend, and four of them -- Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco -- are out with a loss and no additional requirements.

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Seeding projections

Here are the chances that teams in the playoff mix fall into each slot once the field is set. ESPN's FPI is pretty confident that Houston will end up in that No. 4 spot in the AFC, but it isn't sure on other playoff contenders. The Ravens, for instance, have a 24% chance to finish third, 46% chance to finish fifth and 20% chance to finish sixth. And as for the top spot, the Chiefs hold the advantage at 80%. They would clinch this weekend with a win and a Bills loss.

The close division races in the NFC make the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds very much up for grabs. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is nearly guaranteed to the second-place finisher in the NFC North. And as for the No. 1 seed, the Lions hold the advantage over the Eagles and Vikings at the moment -- but the gap has narrowed.

Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft pick

The Giants (2-12) are eliminated from the playoffs and appear to be in the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will surely be looking at the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Raiders are in the mix for the top pick, too. See the full draft order here, which is updated on Tuesdays.