Doug Greenberg, ESPNDec 19, 2024, 08:33 PM ET
Between 2009 and 2013, LeBron James won four NBA MVP awards in the span of five seasons. During that period and even in the seasons following, there was a general feeling around the league that James could win the honor every season due to his statistical dominance and his teams' success.
Understanding that MVP is often a narrative-driven award, sportsbooks made James an odds-on favorite to win it ahead of the 2014-15 campaign, his first back with the Cleveland Cavaliers after losing in the NBA Finals with the Miami Heat. It's the only time in the last 15 seasons that has occurred, according to ESPN Research.
While Nikola Jokic hasn't quite reached that level of respect yet, he can equal James' mark of four MVPs in five seasons by winning it again for 2024-25, and sportsbooks seem to believe it will happen: Jokic is a consensus favorite to win the honor across the sports betting marketplace, showing +115 odds on ESPN BET as of Friday morning.
Jokic's detractors will point to a just-ok Denver Nuggets team, other intriguing candidates on the board and potential voter fatigue as reasons why the Serbian phenom may not win again. Yet despite all of that, bettors and oddsmakers alike are backing him en masse.
"The odds are based on who the voters are most likely to vote for. I think just about everyone agrees Jokic is the best overall player in the NBA," BetMGM strategy trading manager Hal Egeland told ESPN by email, noting that Jokic leads the NBA in efficiency, and ranks second in points (30.9), rebounds (13.3) and assists (9.9) per game. "If the Nuggets had a better record, Jokic's odds would be much shorter."
The 29-year-old did open the season as the favorite, tied with Luka Doncic at +300 on ESPN BET, but was replaced with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the top spot by Nov. 2 amid the Oklahoma City Thunder's hot start to the season and the Nuggets' contrastingly slow start. However, Jokic proceeded to drop four triple-doubles in the span of a week, shooting him back to favorite status by Nov. 10.
On Dec. 8, following a 56-point outburst against the Washington Wizards, ESPN BET listed Jokic at -120 to win MVP, the earliest the sportsbook had listed a candidate as odds-on in three seasons.
"In terms of oddsmaking, his price is a factor of both standout performances and wagering activity," ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said via email. "Jokic is playing like an MVP, and bettors have been backing him throughout the season."
The sportsbook notes that Jokic has taken an overwhelming 60.7% of bets and 36.5% of handle since the market opened in June, and his 28.6% of tickets and 33.5% of money since the season began is also the most of any player in the league. Even minus-odds didn't stop the betting deluge, as DraftKings reported he was the most-bet player for MVP from Dec. 10 to 17.
However, the awards race may have taken another turn this week when the Milwaukee Bucks defeated Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder in the NBA Cup Final, with Giannis Antetokounmpo taking home tournament MVP honors. With the league's focus on them, Gilgeous-Alexander (+275) and Antetokounmpo (+475) shortened in the season-long MVP odds, while Jokic lost his odds-on status.
"Voters tend to weigh a good story and sometimes have voter fatigue, and right now Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the best team in the West," said Egeland. "Additionally, Giannis and the Bucks have overcome a slow start and are NBA Cup champions, which puts him in the mix too."
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello adds that bettors are "going to take shots with guys that are a little bit higher price," such as Doncic (+700), Jayson Tatum (+2500), and even players as long as 100-1 like Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
For now, though, it's still the reigning champion Jokic's award to lose and if he keeps stuffing the statsheet at his current pace, it will be hard to argue anyone else should be cashing those future tickets.
