Nathan MacKinnon vs. Macklin Celebrini for MVP?

The NHL Awards races this season have been anything but predictable, given some of the chaotic variables.

Florida Panthers star Aleksander Barkov won the past two Selke Trophies as the NHL's best defensive forward. He has yet to play a game this season after a preseason injury required knee surgery. Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has won the past two Vezina Trophies as the NHL's top netminder, as well as the Hart Trophy as league MVP last season. He sat out around a month this season because of surgery, and hasn't hit his usual stats standards.

Perhaps the biggest X factor of all? The 19-year-old star in San Jose who has announced his arrival among the NHL's superstars and in the MVP race.

Welcome to the NHL Awards Watch for January. We've polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We've made sure it's a cross section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.

Keep in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists, broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams and general managers vote for the Vezina.

All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams

Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.

Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy

Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.

Hart Trophy (MVP)

Leader: Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks; Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers

MacKinnon leads the MVP race for the second straight month, because what hasn't he led this season? Entering Monday, MacKinnon had a significant lead in the NHL goals race and was slightly ahead of McDavid in the points race. Most importantly, he has been the driving force behind the Avalanche's record pace this season, with an .841 points percentage and only three regulation losses in 41 games.

MacKinnon won the Hart in 2023-24 and was fourth for the award last season. His vote share fell from 82% last month to just over 50% of the first-place votes this month. "Just a ridonkulous season," one MacKinnon voter declared.

"MacKinnon is just too critical to the Avs' success and he's been the league's best offensive player all season. Until that changes, he's got this on lock," another voter noted.

"No matter how historically absurd Connor McDavid's offensive output in December was, it will take something really severe for MacKinnon not to be at the top of my ballot at this point, assuming the Avalanche continue rolling," another MacKinnon backer revealed.

Calling McDavid's December "historically absurd" might be underselling it. McDavid had 34 points in 15 games. That was the most points by an NHL player in a single calendar month since Mario Lemieux in December 1995 (34 points in 14 games). McDavid moved the Oilers from sixth to first place in the Pacific Division.

The Oilers star is seeking his fourth MVP trophy, having last won in 2022-23. He didn't receive a first-place vote last month and wasn't prominently featured down our voters' ballots. But now that he's threatening MacKinnon's points lead, he's second for the Hart, with 30% of the first-place votes.

Many of our McDavid voters framed their support as being just slightly ahead of MacKinnon -- although some MacKinnon voters also acknowledged that McDavid was "right there" for MVP.

"McDavid proving again that the Oilers go as he goes," one voter argued.

"I was firmly championing MacKinnon until this point, I'm now sashaying over to backing the Oilers captain as the league's most valuable to his team," another voter explained. "No chance Edmonton is anywhere near first place in the Pacific without him. At this rate, Colorado's elite power forward won't be leading the scoring race much longer."

The only other player to receive first-place votes was Celebrini. A young phenom winning the Hart has historic precedence: Wayne Gretzky won the Hart at 19 years old in 1979-80. McDavid won the Hart at 19 years old in 2016-17. That's some rather exclusive company Celebrini's keeping in vying for MVP honors in his second NHL season. But he has been that good.

The Sharks center was third in the league in points entering Monday night. He has been an impact player on offense and defense.

Everyone defines "value" differently when it comes to the Hart Trophy. One methodology: Looking at a player's offensive totals within context of those of his teammates. That's essentially what won Taylor Hall the Hart in 2017-18, finishing 41 points ahead of the New Jersey Devils' second-leading scorer.

Entering Monday night, Celebrini had 63 points in 41 games. The next highest scorer on the Sharks was Will Smith, with 29 points. Celebrini has dragged this Sharks team to the playoff bubble. If San Jose makes it, he could win the Hart.

"Macklin Celebrini has absolutely and very credibly entered the conversation with what he accomplished last month," one voter concluded.

"Celebrini has a real shot to overtake MacKinnon if Sharks make the playoffs," a MacKinnon voter predicted.

"It's still MacKinnon, but I'm looking forward to the possibility of putting Macklin Celebrini on my ballot," another quipped.

Other names listed by voters down the ballot included Brad Marchand of the Florida Panthers, Cale Makar of the Avalanche, Matt Boldy of the Minnesota Wild and Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens.

Norris Trophy (top defenseman)

Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars; Moritz Seider, Detroit Red Wings

Makar was a unanimous choice for the Norris last month, and nearly repeated the feat this month, securing all but two first-place votes.

Through 41 games, he had 47 points and skated to a plus-32 with the juggernaut Avalanche, averaging 25 minutes, 3 seconds. That includes 16 power-play points. He won the Norris last season for the second time, and he has been a finalist for the award for five consecutive seasons.

"Easiest pick of the bunch," one voter indicated.

"Makar is a freakshow this season at both ends of the ice," another voter pointed out.

"Makar remains on his own planet with how he impacts the game," another voter declared.

"Makar has a similarly significant lead over the field compared to what MacKinnon has for Hart," another voter expressed.

The only other defensemen who received first-place votes were Heiskanen and Seider.

The Stars' franchise blueliner has 36 points in 42 games, skating 26:01 per game. His highest finish in the Norris voting was seventh in 2022-23.

Seider, meanwhile, is having perhaps his finest season with the Red Wings, with 31 points in 43 games, skating 25:12 on average. "Seider has taken a big step and it's making a difference in Detroit," one voter mentioned.

Two names to watch who were cited with frequency down the ballot for our voters: Quinn Hughes of the Minnesota Wild and Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blues Jackets. Hughes has 35 points in 37 games, including 12 points in his first 11 games in Minnesota.

"It's Makar and then a giant gap to Werenski and Hughes, whose impact has unsurprisingly improved since moving to Minnesota," one voter explained.

"Zach Werenski is having a great season with Columbus that isn't getting enough attention," another argued.

Jakob Chychrun of the Washington Capitals earned a mention, as did Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens. Josh Morrissey of the Winnipeg Jets, a finalist last month, wasn't mentioned, which is probably a symptom of the Jets' diminished place in the standings.

Calder Trophy (top rookie)

Leader: Matthew Schaefer, D, New York Islanders
Finalists: Ivan Demidov, RW, Montreal Canadiens; Jesper Wallstedt, G, Minnesota Wild

Shoutout to the voter who listed their Calder Trophy leader as "C'mon ..."

That's how much Schaefer has made NHL rookie of the year a foregone conclusion just over halfway through the season. The 18-year-old blueliner leads all rookie defensemen in points (28) and goals (12), placing in the top three in those categories for all rookies. He leads all rookies in average ice time (23:50), as the Islanders continue to give him more responsibility and Schaefer continues to meet the moment.

Few rookies, if any, can claim to have had the transformative effect on their teams as Schaefer has had with the Islanders, who are second in the Metro Division. That goes for his play and his undeniable charisma.

"We throw the term 'generational talent' around too often. It's not hubris in Schaefer's case. To do what he's doing at that age is quite something," one voter beamed.

"Nearly named to an elite Olympic blue line featuring some of the best in the NHL biz, Schaefer might still end up representing Canada if someone else falls injured before early February. As an 18-year-old defender. Which is ridiculous," another declared.

Schaefer received just over 85% of the first-place votes.

The only other players to receive first-place votes were Demidov and Wallstedt. The Canadiens winger led all rookie scorers with 36 points in 42 games, including 10 goals. He's making the most of his 15:14 on average per game.

"Demidov is gaining ground," one voter pointed out.

The problem with Demidov is that he's not Schaefer.

"I know Habs people are going to scream about Demidov, but let's get real here," one voter concluded.

"Demidov has improved and is in the nomination conversation, but he's not playing tough matchups, and his overall value is not close to that of Schaefer who plays much tougher minutes," another voter explained. "The notion that he is the best rookie is buoyed by the market he plays in."

Also in the mix at forward is Beckett Sennecke, who led all rookies with 13 goals through 41 games. "It's been fun watching Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke enter the conversation," one voter revealed.

Wallstedt, meanwhile, is part of a robust group of rookie netminders this season that includes Montreal's Jakub Dobes and San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov, the latter of whom was in the top three for the Calder last month but wasn't mentioned by any voters this month.

"The Wall of St. Paul" is 11-2-4, with a .928 save percentage and a 2.30 goals-against average.

But at the moment, it's Schaefer's Calder to lose.

Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)

Note: The NHL's general managers vote for this award.

Leader: Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild; Scott Wedgewood, Colorado Avalanche

As mentioned earlier, not having some of the NHL Awards' perennial contenders performing at their peaks has thrown a couple of these races into chaos. Hellebuyck sitting out time because of surgery -- and not putting up standard Hellebuyck numbers this season -- has left the back-to-back Vezina winner outside of the field for the award this season. Hellebuyck didn't make a single ballot.

Earning the most first-place votes was Thompson, who finished fourth in the voting last season. He doesn't have last season's bonkers record (31-6-6) but his overall numbers have been stronger this season than in his breakout 2024-25 campaign. Thompson had a .915 save percentage and a 2.37 goals-against average with two shutouts through 30 games. Money Puck (15.9 goals saved above expected) likes him better than Stathletes (2.72), but Thompson's analytics case is strong, too.

"Hard to give it to one of the Colorado goalies given the injuries and that the Avs have two of the best players in the world at their positions on an absolute tear. Thompson is holding the Capitals together," one voter explained.

But one of the Avalanche goalies is right there with Thompson, and it's probably not the one may would have predicted before the season: Wedgewood, 33, playing on his fifth team since 2021.

"I can't believe this is my vote," one voter quipped.

He backstopped Colorado during its historic start while Mackenzie Blackwood was on the mend, and had an 18-2-4 record through 26 games, with a .918 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average. Wedgewood was one first-place vote behind Thompson for the Vezina lead, with both significantly clear of the field. Wedgewood also had some passionate backers.

"Easy to look at the team in front of him and say he's a product of his environment, but his save percentage so far says otherwise," one voter pointed out.

"It's time to start giving Scott Wedgewood his flowers. His impressive season has gotten even better of late, and that's nothing to sneeze at, even for the powerhouse Avalanche," another voter argued.

But Wedgewood might have a Mackenzie Blackwood problem. Through 16 games, Blackwood has a 13-1-1 record with a .924 save percentage.

"Blackwood might have 2023 Linus Ullmark numbers when all is said and done," predicted one voter who had Blackwood atop their ballot.

"Wedgewood is still deserving, but he's not making as many starts with Blackwood back," a Thompson voter noted.

The next highest total of first-place votes went to Wallstedt, the Wild's brilliant rookie. The problem right now for him is sample size -- entering Monday's action, there were 36 goalies that had more games played than Wallstedt.

"Not enough starts for the 'Wall of St. Paul,' but he's been outstanding," one Thompson voter admitted.

"I'm sure he'll cool off eventually, but maybe he goes 'full Barrasso,'" added another voter, referencing Hall of Famer Tom Barrasso's Vezina win as a Buffalo Sabres rookie in 1983-84.

Other goalies to receive first-place votes from our panel were Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders, Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers, Darcy Kuemper of the Los Angeles Kings and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

"I think Igor Shesterkin has been the best starter in hockey, and continues to cover up the extent of the Rangers' struggles significantly," one voter declared, though Shesterkin left Monday's game with a leg injury.

Vasilevskiy made the top three here last month.

"Vasy is back to being Vasy, in case anybody thought otherwise," another voter stated.

Not making any of our ballots: Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins, who was top three in the balloting last month.

Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)

Leader: Nick Suzuki, Montreal Canadiens
Finalists: Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning; Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings

Barkov was seeking his third straight win as the NHL's best defensive center and fourth Selke overall, but a preseason injury ended that campaign before it started. That opened the door for someone else to grab the throne, and right now that's Suzuki.

The Canadiens center earned 30% of the first-place votes, the clear leader halfway through the season. He was anointed early as the Selke favorite, and topped this category in last month's Awards Watch.

Montreal averages 2.05 goals against per 60 minutes with Suzuki on the ice, with a 57% goals-for percentage. He has been great at puck recovery, blocks shots and is one of the better players in the league at intercepting opponents' passes.

"Nick Suzuki. That's the list," one voter declared.

"Big fan of his two-way game this season. Shows growth and likely earned him that Olympic nod," another voter surmised.

If there are knocks on Suzuki, it's his faceoff percentage (48.8%) and the fact that he's not one of his team's primary penalty killers -- but it's not as if he sets the lineup.

The next highest total of first-place votes belongs to another Canadian Olympian: Cirelli, the Lightning's versatile forward. He leads Tampa Bay forwards in average shorthanded ice time (2:56 in 37 games). Like Suzuki, he's not killing it in the dot (48.4%) but the Lightning average 1.97 goals against per 60 minutes with him on the ice. Cirelli earned 20% of the first-place Selke votes.

The next highest earner of first-place votes was Kopitar. He doesn't see a ton of shorthanded time (53 seconds per game on average), but he's dominating the faceoff circle (57.2%) and the Kings are giving up just 1.24 goals per 60 minutes with Kopitar on the ice in his 36 games.

The 38-year-old star center said this season will be his last. He has won the Selke twice previously (2016, 2018) but hasn't been a finalist since the 2017-18 season. If he has a case, one wonders how many voters might be swayed by a "gold watch" Selke win for the Kings legend.

Eight other players received first-place votes: Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers), who was a finalist last month, along with Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild), Roope Hintz (Dallas Stars), Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings), Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche), Brock Nelson (Avalanche), Mark Stone (Vegas Golden Knights) and Tom Wilson (Washington Capitals).

"I still think Dylan Larkin is being slept on here, and he remains at the top of my ballot," one voter revealed.

On Nelson, one voter wrote: "On pace for 30-plus goals and playing an insane defensive role to allow MacKinnon to score at a 70-plus goal pace. Nelson is what the Avs have needed at 2C since [Nazem] Kadri [left]."

Other players such as Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers), Alex Tuch (Buffalo Sabres), Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils) Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights) and Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) received support down the ballots in what is a very unsettled Selke race under the leader, Suzuki.

"Boy, Aleksander Barkov's unavailability makes this a lot more interesting," one voter concluded.

Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)

This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league's on-ice officials or by the NHL Players' Association instead of the PHWA. Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top-20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players.

How about Zach Werenski? The Blue Jackets defenseman has 44 points in 37 games and only six penalty minutes, for a defenseman who averages 26:40 per game. The last time a defenseman not named Jaccob Slavin won the Byng was Brian Campbell in 2012.

Jack Adams Award (best coach)

Note: The NHL Broadcasters' Association votes on this award.

Leader: Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay Lightning
Finalists: Jared Bednar, Colorado Avalanche; Joel Quenneville, Anaheim Ducks

The top three last month remain the top three this month, setting up a fascinating philosophical showdown: The long overdue Cooper vs. Bednar, the coach responsible for one of the most dominant regular-season teams in NHL history.

"It's a toss-up between Cooper, for what he's done with injuries, and Bednar, for the ridiculous record," one voter explained.

"It's about time Cooper or Bednar get the recognition they deserve," another declared.

Cooper, the head coach of the Canadian Olympic team, has been a finalist twice for the Adams, losing to Colorado's Patrick Roy in 2014 and Washington's Barry Trotz in 2019. His .639 points percentage is the second best in NHL history for coaches with at least 700 games behind the bench, trailing only Scotty Bowman (.657).

He has the Lightning near the top of the Atlantic Division despite losing key defensemen Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh to long-term injuries for portions of the season.

"Hard to argue that this isn't the best job he's done in his 12-plus seasons behind the bench," one voter stated.

"I've become more convinced over time that this should be Jon Cooper's year. I know the results haven't always showed it, but Tampa Bay has been the most impressive team to watch them play in the Eastern Conference," another voter argued.

Cooper received just over 40% of the first-place votes. Bednar was right behind him with just over 35% of the first-place votes. The Avalanche have a 31-3-7 record through 41 games for a mindboggling .841 points percentage.

"The Avs are just a wagon," one voter concluded.

"The Avalanche had two regulation losses through 40 games. While the on-ice personnel deserve plenty of credit for what's been an outstanding run in Denver, so does the fella running the show from behind the bench," another voter pointed out. "Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't believe coaching matters all that much."

The third-highest vote total belongs to Quenneville, in his first season behind the bench in Anaheim. He won the Adams in 1999-2000 with the St. Louis Blues. He has an advantage over Cooper and Bednar in perception: He has taken a "bad" Ducks team that was 12th in the conference last season and made it a contender for the Pacific Division title.

The other head coach who received first-place votes was Todd McLellan, who has the Detroit Red Wings vying for the top of the Atlantic Division.

"Todd MacLellan has entered the chat," one voter announced.

Other coaches mentioned down the ballots: Glen Gulutzan (Dallas Stars), Dan Muse (Pittsburgh Penguins), Rick Tocchet (Philadelphia Flyers) and Ryan Warsofsky (San Jose Sharks).