Midseason check-in: Which picks are we standing by -- or redoing?

9 hours ago 3

ESPN

Jan 9, 2025, 11:00 AM ET

Two months down, two to go -- and the road to the 2025 women's Final Four in Tampa is fast approaching.

The 2024-25 women's college basketball season has had plenty of unexpected twists. Unlike last year when South Carolina was the favorite on its way to an undefeated season, there is no clear national title front-runner. Notre Dame's Hannah Hidalgo has emerged as the favorite for Player of the Year after we predicted it being a two-player race between USC's JuJu Watkins and UConn's Paige Bueckers in the preseason.

And that's all subject to change as league competition progresses. Some intriguing games await in January -- Thursday alone has four Top 25 matchups -- and the second half of the season could bring even more wrinkles.

ESPN's women's college basketball experts break down this season's biggest surprises and disappointments, what we got wrong in November, and they update their predictions on conference champions, end-of-season awards, Final Four teams and more.

Which team, player or trend has been the biggest surprise so far?

Michael Voepel: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were picked 10th in the ACC preseason poll, but they enter Thursday's game vs. Virginia Tech at 15-0 overall and 3-0 in the league. Freshman Dani Carnegie is averaging 16.0 points and shooting 42.1% from 3-point range. She and juniors Kara Dunn and Tonie Morgan are the top backcourt players on a guard-heavy team that averages 9.4 3-pointers per game.

Nell Fortner is in her sixth season as Yellow Jackets coach and made NCAA tournament appearances in 2021 and 2022. Georgia Tech was a combined 30-33 the past two seasons. But the Jackets are buzzing now, with two big tests on the road looming: at Louisville on Sunday and at Notre Dame on Jan. 16.

Charlie Creme: Vanderbilt. In the preseason we were asked who could be this year's NC State or Oregon State, teams that went from unranked to a deep 2024 NCAA tournament run. If Georgia Tech is this year's Wolfpack, Vanderbilt could be 2025's version of the Beavers.

After taking the Commodores to their first NCAA tournament since 2014, Shea Ralph has Vanderbilt off to a 14-2 start. Without much fanfare, sophomore Khamil Pierre (22.8 PPG) and freshman Mikayla Blakes (20.6 PPG) are the top scoring duo in the nation and are the top defenders on a team that leads the country in steals. The Commodores suffered a humbling home loss to Kentucky on Sunday, and the upcoming schedule with Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee is challenging, but they look like an NCAA tournament team that could possibly threaten for a top-four seed.

Alexa Philippou: It was tough to know what to expect from Kim Caldwell's first year at Tennessee and whether her unorthodox style of play -- fast-paced with full-court pressure, 3-point shots galore and hockey-esque line changes -- would translate to the Power 4 and SEC. The Lady Vols didn't play the strongest nonconference schedule, and the likes of South Carolina, Texas and LSU loom. But it's hard to argue with the results over Caldwell's first 14 games: They won their first 13 contests before dropping a heartbreaker Sunday to then-No. 9 Oklahoma in Knoxville, missing a go-ahead shot with under 10 seconds to play and falling by one.

With the way Caldwell has her team playing and how she's recruiting, the Lady Vols faithful have to be thrilled with what's brewing in Knoxville even if Tennessee doesn't end up a legit SEC contender this year. Plus, this brand of basketball is undeniably entertaining to watch.

What's something you believed in the preseason that you were wrong about?

Philippou: Coming off a first-round NCAA tournament exit, Maryland was No. 23 in my preseason poll. A week into 2025, the Terps are ranked eighth in the country at 14-1 and are looking like a real threat in the Big Ten and nationally. With 10 new players (including seven transfers), it would have been understandable if it took a few months for Brenda Frese's squad to coalesce. That has been far from the case. The Terps beat Duke three games into the season and pair a high-powered offense (with Rutgers transfer Kaylene Smikle leading the way) with a stauncher defense than we've seen recently in College Park.

Maryland was within reach of beating No. 4 USC on Wednesday before the Trojans surged down the stretch to deliver the first loss of the Terps' season. But the outing showed Frese's squad is right there with a Final Four and national title contender. Maryland has some quality tests remaining in the Big Ten, plus a neutral site nonconference duel against Texas in the Coretta Scott King Classic.

Voepel: That Iowa State was the best team in the Big 12. That hasn't been the case so far. The Cyclones are 11-6 overall and 2-2 in the league, winning 90-83 Wednesday at Arizona State. But they were were clobbered by a combined 73 points by South Carolina and UConn in nonconference games. I thought the Cyclones were going to build on last year's 21-12 season led by freshmen Audi Crooks and Addy Brown. Both are still producing as sophomores; Crooks is averaging 23.0 PPG and 7.8 RPG, and Brown 13.6 and 7.5. But as a team, Iowa State hasn't yet taken the step forward many expected. Iowa State still has time to move up the Big 12 ladder, but for now the Cyclones aren't in the top quarter of the 16-team league.

Creme: I thought it would take some time, perhaps as much as the first couple months of the season, for Hidalgo and Olivia Miles to develop a chemistry at Notre Dame and figure out the best way to maximize each other's talents. But in their first game together, albeit against an overmatched Mercyhurst, Hidalgo had 19 points, 9 rebounds and 6 steals. Miles had a triple-double. The duo was off and running from the start and haven't been slowed outside of the loss to Utah in the Cayman Islands. That Notre Dame was able to beat USC, UConn and Texas all before final exams began is a testament to how seamlessly the two stars came together. Combined they are averaging 42.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists. They are each committing fewer than three turnovers per game and, most remarkably, are both shooting above 45% from 3-point range.

Which team or player has been the biggest disappointment?

Kendra Andrews: Iowa State was the No. 8 team in the preseason poll; now it is unranked. The biggest letdown: a stunning loss to in-state rival Northern Iowa, a game in which Iowa State was outscored 31-7 at one point. The Cyclones continued to suffer through a tough stretch at the end of the calendar year, and after hopes of building some momentum in a win against Kansas, picked up another Big 12 loss to Utah. There is time for them to work their way out of this funk, but the Cyclones have been a letdown.

Creme: UConn hasn't gotten as much out of Kaitlyn Chen as expected. The Huskies' depth was part of the reason I picked UConn as my national champion in the preseason. Chen coming over from Princeton as a grad transfer was a big part of the depth. Her point guard skills coupled with her ability to score would ease the burden on the younger guards, give Azzi Fudd time to play herself back to full health and allow Bueckers to play off the ball more.

That impact hasn't been there. UConn is still so reliant on Bueckers and freshman Sarah Strong in part because Chen is averaging a mere 6.1 points per game and taking fewer than five shots a contest. Chen wasn't expected to produce like she did at Princeton where she averaged 16.0 points and was named Ivy League Player of the Year, but if the Huskies will need more from Chen if they are to contend for a national title.

Philippou: Stanford. A year removed from earning a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, Charlie has the Cardinal as the final team among the first four out in his latest Bracketology. A lot has happened since April: Tara VanDerveer retired, Cameron Brink graduated, Kiki Iriafen transferred and the program officially moved to the ACC. But if the Cardinal were to miss the NCAA tournament, it would be the first time since 1987 they failed to play in the Big Dance. Stanford's 0-3 record in the ACC marks its worst start to conference play since VanDerveer's first season on the Farm

Elsewhere in the ACC, it would be nice to see Florida State pick up steam and take advantage of Ta'Niya Latson's brilliant season.

What team is your pick right now to win the 2025 NCAA title?

Voepel: South Carolina, leaning on its depth and experience. Ten players were averaging at least 16 minutes per game; that's down to nine now with junior forward Ashlyn Watkins out with a season-ending ACL tear. Still, the Gamecocks are not dependent on any one player for scoring, rebounding or assists. That's part of what makes them so hard to play.

Watkins led the team in blocked shots (1.9 per game), so others have to step forward as rim protectors. That can include starting forwards Sania Feagin (1.1 BPG) and Chloe Kitts and key freshman reserve Joyce Edwards. Junior Maryam Dauda, a transfer from Arkansas, and freshman Adhel Tac both might get more playing time as well. Watkins' injury will make it a tougher task for South Carolina to repeat. But Dawn Staley still has a lot of options in the post.

Creme: Despite the loss of Watkins, I'm going with the Gamecocks to repeat. Losing Watkins' length and athleticism is a big blow, especially on defense, but it's hard to overlook the fact this team has been there before and has championship pedigree. Edwards, the one Gamecock who hasn't had that postseason experience, has been productive in her first year. With Watkins out, expect Edwards' impact to grow. She will be the key to South Carolina surviving the gauntlet that is the upper echelon of the SEC and the pressure of the NCAA tournament.

Andrews: Notre Dame is going to snatch the title. Nonconference wins over UConn and USC are a better representation of what the Irish are capable of than the losses to Utah and TCU. Hidalgo is the leading contender for player of the year, while Miles is shooting the ball better than she ever has before. She's hitting 47.8% on 3-pointers this season after shooting 22.8% from the arc in 2022-23 before an injury sidelined her all of last season. Together, Hidalgo and Miles have formed the most dynamic backcourt in college basketball. And now, with Maddy Westbeld making her highly anticipated return, the Irish are building out more depth and have more of a veteran presence on the court.

Philippou: UCLA. The Bruins' demolishment of South Carolina in November doesn't look like it was a one-off. They're still undefeated and are our favorites to win the Big Ten. They are the deepest and most complete contender with Lauren Betts playing like a first-team All-American, Kiki Rice having a career year and so many other strong complementary pieces around them. They have depth and versatility, shooting and size and can cause an assortment of problems at both ends of the court. It's difficult to identify any weaknesses with what is surely Cori Close's strongest team since she arrived in Westwood, one that, at minimum, is poised to make the program's first NCAA Final Four.

What's the one thing that will have the most impact on how the season ends in April?

Creme: Three games -- South Carolina at Texas on Jan. 12, Texas at South Carolina on Feb. 9 and UConn at South Carolina on Feb. 16 -- will determine the No. 1 seeds. The Huskies absolutely must win in Columbia if they are to reach the top line. The two games between the Longhorns and Gamecocks will likely decide the SEC title and could determine which team is the favorite for the national championship. A split would do the conference some good because each would still be set up to be a possible top seed, especially if UCLA knocks off USC twice in the Big Ten.

Philippou: Health. Losing Watkins is a blow to South Carolina's frontcourt depth. Teams such as Notre Dame and UConn have had poor injury luck in recent seasons -- the Fighting Irish have been trending in the right direction this year, while Fudd and Bueckers have missed some games with knee sprains. No one wants to see injuries for any team, but they're an unfortunate part of the game and could impact the title race.

Voepel: The Final Four matchups. Unless a team is clearly better than the field, it's very difficult to get those last two victories for a title. Even if a team is the best -- as was the case with South Carolina in 2023 -- things can stop them. After falling in two national championship games in a row, Iowa's Caitlin Clark said, "These things are really hard to win." She is right: Iowa knocked off giants South Carolina and UConn in back-to-back Final Fours, but those wins were in the semifinals.

Part of the reason I'm sticking with the Gamecocks to repeat is how I think they can handle the Final Four pressure after facing so much of it in recent years. UConn has dealt with it more than any program. No one on Notre Dame's roster has been to the Final Four, but coach Niele Ivey has lots of experience at that level.

As for some of the other potential No. 1 seeds, Texas' last Final Four was 2003, USC's was 1986 and UCLA's was in the pre-NCAA era (the Bruins won the 1978 AIAW title). If any of these teams reach Tampa, it would be better for them to play another less-experienced program in the semifinals.

Predictions

Which team will win the ACC?

Kendra Andrews: Notre Dame
Katie Barnes: Notre Dame
Charlie Creme: Notre Dame
Sean Hurd: Notre Dame
Alexa Philippou: Notre Dame
Michael Voepel: Notre Dame

Which team will win the Big Ten?

Andrews: UCLA
Barnes: UCLA
Creme: UCLA
Hurd: USC
Philippou: UCLA
Voepel: UCLA

Which team will win the Big 12?

Andrews: TCU
Barnes: Kansas State
Creme: Kansas State
Hurd: Kansas State
Philippou: Kansas State
Voepel: Kansas State

Which team will win the SEC?

Andrews: South Carolina
Barnes: South Carolina
Creme: South Carolina
Hurd: South Carolina
Philippou: South Carolina
Voepel: South Carolina

Which teams will reach the Final Four?

Andrews: South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, USC
Barnes: South Carolina, Notre Dame, USC, UConn
Creme: South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, USC
Hurd: South Carolina, Notre Dame, UCLA, USC
Philippou: UCLA, Notre Dame, UConn, South Carolina
Voepel: South Carolina, Notre Dame, UCLA, Texas

Which team will win the NCAA title?

Andrews: Notre Dame over South Carolina
Barnes: Notre Dame over South Carolina
Creme: South Carolina over Notre Dame
Hurd: South Carolina over UCLA
Philippou: UCLA over Notre Dame
Voepel: South Carolina over UCLA

Who will be the national player of the year?

Andrews: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Barnes: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Creme: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Hurd: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Philippou: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Voepel: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame

Who will be the freshman of the year?

Andrews: Sarah Strong, UConn
Barnes: Sarah Strong, UConn
Creme: Sarah Strong, UConn
Hurd: Sarah Strong, UConn
Philippou: Sarah Strong, UConn
Voepel: Sarah Strong, UConn

Who will win coach of the year?

Andrews: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Barnes: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Creme: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Hurd: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Philippou: Cori Close, UCLA
Voepel: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame