Multiple Contributors
Dec 20, 2025, 06:15 AM ET
Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after an important NFC West matchup that saw the Seahawks beat the Rams in overtime Thursday night. Now, let's look at what you need to know for the last 15 games on the slate. We have last-minute nuggets from our NFL analysts on matchups from Saturday through Monday.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then, fantasy writer Eric Moody highlights five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That's followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak's three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen's key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado's favorite bet for Week 15. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Can the Packers generate a pass rush without Micah Parsons? Could quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy and Tyler Shough have big fantasy performances? Will the Eagles get upset by the Commanders? Can Bears rookie running back Kyle Monangai put together a huge day? Which bet stands out in Patriots-Ravens? And what has a full week of preparation looked like for Colts quarterback Philip Rivers? We dig into all of it.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 16 winners
Will the Packers generate a pass rush without edge rusher Micah Parsons against the Bears?
There's no question the Packers will feel the effect of losing Parsons for the rest of the season to a torn ACL, but the sheer degree of the team's on-off splits with him is wild. With Parsons on the field this season, the Packers recorded a 43.9% pass rush win rate, which would be rank around third in the NFL. Without him? That number drops to 23.4%, which would rank 32nd. Their EPA allowed per dropback increased from 0.06 to 0.15. And opponents' pass rate over expectation against them increased from minus-10% to plus-2%, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
All of this is to say that Green Bay will need to find some pass rush against suddenly hard-to-sack Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. If edge rusher Lukas Van Ness can play after being limited in practice this week with a foot injury, that would help a lot. He has the highest pass rush win rate (12.7%) among all non-Parsons Packers with at least 100 pass rushes, but even his rate is basically half of Parsons' number (24.6%).
Can the Steelers stop Detroit's play-action?
The Lions, as usual, are one of the heaviest play-action teams. They run it on 30% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. And it makes sense since play-action is an offensive advantage that, on average, improves efficiency. But that might not be the case against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is one of the rare teams with a defense that actually performs better against play-action (minus-0.10 EPA allowed per dropback, third best) than without it (plus-0.07, 20th). If Pittsburgh can derail one of Detroit's favorite offensive levers, that would be a huge edge in a contest between two playoff hopefuls.
How will Titans quarterback Cam Ward fare against the Chiefs' blitz?
The Titans face a suddenly winnable game against the Gardner Minshew-led Chiefs following Kansas City's elimination from playoff contention and Patrick Mahomes' torn left ACL. But the Chiefs present one issue for the Titans that has nothing to do with who is playing quarterback.
Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's defense blitzes 35% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. And that has been a particular weakness for Ward. While he currently ranks last in the NFL with a 31.2 QBR, that number drops to 13.7 when facing the blitz. Even with Ward's subtle improvements over the past two weeks (a 46.9 QBR from Week 11 on), he still has just a 9.5 QBR against the blitz. If the Titans want to get the better of the down-and-out Chiefs, Ward might need to connect on plays when Kansas City brings extra heat.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (34.3% rostered)
McCarthy has played well recently, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in two consecutive games. He benefits from elite pass catchers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and he adds value with his rushing ability. McCarthy now faces a Giants defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. New York has also allowed the most rushing attempts and rushing yards to the position.
Darren Waller, TE, Miami Dolphins (29.1% rostered)
Waller finished with a season high in targets (eight) and fantasy points (25.6) on Monday against the Steelers. Even though starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been benched after a league-high 15 interceptions, rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers can still take advantage of a favorable matchup for Waller. The Bengals' defense has given up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
2:06
Schefter to McAfee: Tua benching the first step in Miami moving on
Adam Schefter joins Pat McAfee to break down the Dolphins' options after benching Tua Tagovailoa.
Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals (24.7% rostered)
Carter should be the Cardinals' lead back against the Falcons with Bam Knight on injured reserve after an ankle injury in Week 15. Carter stepped in once Knight left the game against Houston, finishing with 18 touches and 13.4 fantasy points. It was an impressive outing against an elite defense. The Falcons are a middle-of-the-road defense against running backs, making Carter a solid option for managers in deeper formats.
Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints (8.8% rostered)
Shough is a strong option thanks to his recent fantasy production and rushing upside. In the past three games, the rookie has completed 70% of his passes and scored at least 17 fantasy points in each outing. Shough also averaged 35.5 rushing yards per game during that span, scoring two rushing touchdowns. He should find success against a Jets defense that allowed Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence to score 44.3 fantasy points in Week 15.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers (5.5% rostered)
Coker has seen at least four targets in five consecutive games and scored at least 11 fantasy points in three of them. The second-year receiver is trending up at the perfect time for managers in deeper formats. The Buccaneers have been eviscerated by quarterbacks since Week 12, allowing 1,098 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins just posted 26.9 fantasy points against their leaky secondary in Week 15. Coker is in a favorable spot catching passes from Bryce Young this week.
Solak: Don't be surprised if ...
Bears running back Kyle Monangai leads the league in rushing this week. D'Andre Swift is questionable for Saturday's game, and the Packers' defense will not just be lacking Parsons, but also elite run defending safety Evan Williams. On top of that, Chicago has two receivers confirmed out for this game (Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze), so it will likely skew extremely run heavy. Monangai could get the lion's share of the carries, putting the rookie in line for his third 100-yard game this season.
The Commanders upset the Eagles. Philadelphia's offense looked healed against the Raiders, while the Commanders' passing defense is one of the worst in the league (29th in passing yards allowed per game). But Washington coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has had offensive success against Philly coordinator Vic Fangio's defense. The Commanders have also continued to play hard in a lost season under coach Dan Quinn. Divisional upsets in December are always live, and the Eagles are not a trustworthy squad.
Shough wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. He was once an enormous underdog for this award at 200-1 -- now he's fifth in odds at 14-1. Shough gets an enormously depleted Jets secondary Sunday, and with a floundering offense on the other side, he might have enough drives and short fields to put up 30-plus points and 300-plus yards. The momentum is building.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Chicago's running game versatility vs. the Green Bay defense
The Bears rushed for 90 yards in the second half of the Week 14 matchup against the Packers. Swift and Monangai delivered plenty of body punches on a mixture of zone, power and misdirection run plays. And coach Ben Johnson's usage of the tight ends -- mostly off pre-snap movement -- gave the Bears both numbers and blocking angles at the point of attack. Look for Chicago to use heavy 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on Saturday night against Green Bay.
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How important is a Bears victory vs. the Packers on Saturday?
Kimberley A. Martin, Louis Riddick, Peter Schrager and Domonique Foxworth discuss how important a Bears win would be over the Packers.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 16
New England Patriots +2.5 at Baltimore Ravens
The Patriots are more reliable than the Ravens in terms of play volume and efficiency. New England consistently runs more offensive snaps, which shrinks variance and limits separation from its opponents. Meanwhile, Baltimore's 44% red zone touchdown rate is second lowest in the league, capping its ability to pull away against opponents who control possession even if it can move the ball. I like the Patriots inside the +2.5 points, but I could also see them winning outright.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What has Philip Rivers' first full week of preparation looked like for the Colts?
Rivers has taken the overwhelming majority of the first-team reps, and the goal this week is to make the offense a bit more aggressive than it was in Rivers' first game last Sunday. Rivers threw for 120 yards against the Seahawks, making it tough for the Colts to match Seattle score for score. "That game was the plan that we had," he said. "I don't feel any real limitations pushing the ball down the field. Am I going to throw it 60 yards? No, but I can't name many times I ever did that anyway." -- Stephen Holder, Colts reporter
Where do things stand on Tyler Shough starting for the Saints next season?
Shough has proved his case lately. He ran for two touchdowns in a win against Tampa Bay and then engineered two comeback drives against Carolina last week. He has been able to do that even though injuries have the Saints now using fourth-team receivers and running backs. With the Saints falling down the draft order due to their recent wins, it would make sense to use their draft pick to build around Shough next year. -- Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter
What was the most interesting thing you heard from Bo Nix's four-touchdown day against Green Bay?
Broncos coach Sean Payton has put his QB under center more over the past four games than earlier in the season, with Nix's three highest totals for the year coming over that span. And it has cleaned up Nix's footwork and pumped up the efficiency of the Broncos' run game a bit. Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said this week, "I think his footwork has gotten a lot better." Nix has had three of his four games this season with at least 295 passing yards over those past four games, including the four-touchdown game against the Packers. -- Jeff Legwold, Broncos reporter
Has the "cork come off the bottle" for J.J. McCarthy after two strong starts?
McCarthy has definitely looked less frenetic and more confident with his decisions since returning from a Week 13 concussion, and there's no doubt his past two games have been the best of his career. Over that two-week span, his 82.1 QBR ranks No. 5 in the NFL. A big reason: He has thrown the ball an average of 2.77 seconds after the snap, the eighth fastest in the league over that stretch. But no one is rejoicing quite yet. Those wins came against defenses that rank No. 30 (Commanders) and No. 32 (Cowboys) in expected points added per play. -- Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter
