How Jaguars firing Doug Pederson impacts franchise QB Trevor Lawrence

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13) fired Doug Pederson on Monday, leaving owner Shad Khan to seek his sixth head coach since he purchased the team in November 2011.

Pederson, who won a Super Bowl coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, was hired in January 2022. In his first season, Pederson led the Jaguars to a 9-8 record, AFC South title and playoff win. In 2023, the Jaguars went 9-8 again but missed the playoffs. Khan expected them to return to the postseason in 2024, but it all quickly fell apart when the Jaguars started the season 0-4.

Along the way, there were embarrassing losses to the Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions (the 46-point margin was the worst in franchise history). The Jaguars' four victories came against teams without a winning record.

The Jaguars had the worst passing defense in the league -- giving up 257.4 yards per game. The offense was ravaged by injuries -- none bigger than quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing seven games with a shoulder injury and concussion -- and struggled to find consistency. Pederson was unable to find answers, despite the team spending big on free agents in the offseason.

Here's more from ESPN Jaguars reporter Michael DiRocco, NFL national reporter Jeremey Fowler and NFL draft analyst Matt Miller on why the Jaguars moved on from Pederson and what's in store for the Jaguars this offseason. -- Michael DiRocco

Why was Pederson unable to fix the Jaguars' issues?

At one point in November 2023, the Jaguars were 8-3 and in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They not only missed the playoffs that season, but have gone 5-18 since, with the only victories coming over the Carolina Panthers (2023), Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans (twice) and the New England Patriots.

Pederson didn't have the answers to turn the ship around.

The Jaguars were 3-10 in one-score games this season, the most such losses in a single season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), according to ESPN research.

Beyond wins and losses, Pederson's inability to elevate Lawrence into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks was a problem. Since an impressive ending to the 2022 season, Lawrence -- and the offense -- have steadily declined.

From the start of the 2022 season to Week 12 of 2023, Lawrence completed 67% of his passes with 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Since that point, those numbers have dropped to 61.3% with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. More importantly, his off-target percentage jumped from 14.3% to 19.7%, per ESPN Research.

Lawrence missed eight games because of multiple injuries over that span, including the seven this season.

Despite Khan hinting this past offseason that he wanted Pederson to take back playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor, Pederson stuck with Taylor and the offense kept regressing.

Khan told the team before the season began that this was the best Jaguars squad ever assembled and that he expected to make the playoffs -- and Pederson ultimately failed to do that. -- DiRocco

A statement from Jaguars Owner Shad Khan. pic.twitter.com/jpNoeSfm81

Why did they keep GM Trent Baalke?

While general manager Trent Baalke does shoulder some blame, he is being retained by Khan and will assist in finding a third head coach in five years. He is entering the final year of his contract.

Baalke, who took over as GM after Dave Caldwell was fired in 2020, drafted Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne Jr. in the first round in 2021.

The GM made a questionable decision by choosing defensive end Travon Walker over DE Aidan Hutchinson with the first overall draft pick in 2022. Walker has been a very good player -- he has 24 career sacks, including 20.5 combined the past two seasons -- but Hutchinson has 28.5 sacks for the Detroit Lions and was leading the NFL with 7.5 before suffering a broken leg in Week 5.

But Baalke's 2024 first-round pick, receiver Brian Thomas Jr., set franchise rookie records in catches, yards and touchdown receptions and is regarded as the best receiver from the rookie class. Khan told the Florida Times-Union during the season that Thomas was proof of the Jaguars' draft process working.

Baalke's free agent class in 2022 -- tight end Evan Engram, receiver Christian Kirk, receiver Zay Jones, right guard Brandon Scherff, linebacker Foyesade Oluokun and cornerback Darious Williams -- was one of the best in franchise history and the core of the team when they made the playoffs.

But 2024's free agent class, other than center Mitch Morse, was a massive disappointment after dishing out over $75 million in guarantees. Receiver Gabe Davis had 20 catches in 10 games before going on IR with a knee injury, defensive tackle Arik Armstead played mainly at end and tallied two sacks, cornerback Ronald Darby lost his starting job and returner/receiver Devin Duvernay and safety Darnell Savage have made minimal impact.

There is clearly hope that a new coach will be enough to spark these Jaguars without having to undergo a rebuild of the front office. -- DiRocco

How will Lawrence be affected?

A third head coach in five seasons isn't ideal, but a fresh start could be good for Lawrence, especially if the Jaguars hire a top offensive coordinator such as the Lions' Ben Johnson or the Buccaneers' Liam Cohen.

The Jaguars' offense -- and Lawrence -- have become stagnant, and digging into a new system could energize him. Lawrence turned 25 in October. He's a young, talented player with potential, making the Jaguars' job attractive, since Lawrence is under contract for the next six seasons.

Change isn't always bad for quarterbacks. We've seen that with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold -- the first and third picks, respectively, in 2018 -- having a career renaissance this season after things soured with their original teams. Both threw for more than 4,000 yards and 35-plus touchdowns this season after finally landing in better situations.

Coach Kevin O'Connell's Vikings went 3-6 last season while starting Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall after losing Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles, and now he has Darnold in the MVP conversation. Mayfield has thrown 39 touchdown passes, shattering his previous career high (28) in Cohen's first season as the Bucs' offensive coordinator.

There is no desire to move on from Lawrence, so bringing in the right head coach and/or offensive coordinator could spark a similar surge. -- DiRocco

Does the roster have the talent to be an immediate contender in 2025?

On the offensive side, yes -- provided the team doesn't decide to move on from Kirk and Engram in an effort to save $16.9 million in cap space (which would also require a $27.1 million dead cap hit). Both players have proved their connection with Lawrence and are veteran voices in the locker room.

Lawrence has shown he can play at a game-changing level -- from Week 12 in 2022 to Week 12 in 2023, he ranked in the top 10 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, QBR and passing yards, and the Jaguars were 14-4. He just needs to stay healthy.

Now he has a WR1 in Thomas and a running back duo in Etienne and Tank Bigsby that could be solid.

Four starters will return from an offensive line that ranked 19th in pass block win rate (58.6%) and 25th in run block win rate (70.2%), so that is somewhat of a concern.

The biggest roster issue is the defense. It ranked last in the NFL in passing (257.4 yards per game) and turnovers (nine), 31st in total defense (389.9), and 27th in scoring (25.6 points per game) under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who was in his first season with the Jaguars.

Upgrades this offseason are needed at safety, interior defensive line, cornerback, and linebacker -- and the Jaguars need to find a third pass rusher to complement Walker and end Josh Hines-Allen. Playmakers are scarce on that side of the ball, with no player having more than one interception or fumble recovery.

The Jaguars will likely find help in free agency or the NFL draft -- where they will have the No. 5 pick. -- DiRocco

How enticing is the Jaguars job? Who are you hearing might be interested?

Many around the league believe Jacksonville, on paper, is the best job, narrowly outshining Chicago. The roster has intriguing talent on both sides of the ball. Lawrence, despite his struggles, is still considered a top-half quarterback in the league. Coaching in the AFC South will be a draw, with Tennessee and Indianapolis very much in transition. Baalke staying on as general manager will be a factor.

The sentiment existed in some league circles that the Jaguars would make the head-coaching position more desirable by also opening the GM spot, signifying a complete reset. But even if Baalke's retention limits the pool, that doesn't mean the Jaguars can't get the right coach.

Jacksonville has leaned offense in its past few hires, so sticking with that theme, there are plenty of young coordinators who will fit the bill, including the Lions' Johnson, the Bucs' Coen, the Bills' Joe Brady, the Eagles' Kellen Moore and the Texans' Bobby Slowik.

The Chiefs' Matt Nagy, the Commanders' Kliff Kingsbury and the Ravens' Todd Monken fit that description as well and have head-coaching experience, something Jacksonville has valued in its past three hires (Doug Marrone, Urban Meyer and Pederson).

Also, don't sleep on Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn here. He's considered one of the strongest candidates, and even though he has been linked to the Jets' and Saints' jobs due to his history there, Jacksonville offers a good opportunity that he will likely evaluate. -- Jeremy Fowler

What position might the new Jaguars coaching staff target with the No. 5 pick?

As mentioned above, this is an offense with exciting young players in Lawrence and Thomas, along with some solid talent along the offensive line. There is room to add and round out the receiver room, but it's obvious that the Jaguars need help on defense.

The perfect prospect to answer these questions? Travis Hunter, Colorado's two-way, Heisman Trophy-winning star. His ability as a shutdown cornerback -- he had four interceptions in 2024 -- and as a game-changing wide receiver would allow the Jaguars to check off two boxes with one draft pick. Hunter could start on one side of the ball and still have a heavy package of 20 or so plays on the other in a role that allows his special tools to shine. -- Matt Miller