First ballot or wait? Eli Manning's HOF fate leaves room for debate

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Eli Manning has faced doubters before. Entering the 2007 playoffs, when the quarterback led the New York Giants on a Super Bowl run which ended in an upset of the undefeated New England Patriots, there were questions about whether he was built for pressure situations.

It's laughable knowing the end result. But former Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber said before their wild-card matchup with the Giants in that season's playoffs that Manning "can be had, we know that."

Manning was prone to mistakes at that point in his career -- just not that afternoon. He threw a pair of touchdown passes and no interceptions in a 24-14 win over the Bucs for his first career playoff victory. It would not be the last. Manning threw six touchdown passes and one interception while leading the Giants to a Super Bowl victory, earning MVP honors in a historic come-from-behind win over the Patriots.

One might expect the doubters to have disappeared at that point. But they returned for the "Is Eli elite?" debate a few years later. All Manning did in response was win another Super Bowl, another Super Bowl MVP, all while beating coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady (again).

The debate around Manning's Pro Football Hall of Fame candidacy isn't that different to his playing career. As he sits on the precipice of Canton as one of 25 semifinalists for the Class of 2025, it's hardly a slam dunk that Manning gets voted in during his first year of eligibility.

ESPN, also the proprietor of Manningcast on Monday Night Football, recently took a straw poll of 10 HOF voters. Seven thought Manning would get into the Hall ... eventually. Only two were confident he would be a first-ballot inductee. Two others thought he had a chance of getting in this year but weren't sure how conversations that follow Manning's case being presented prior to the Super Bowl in February would go -- they anticipate resistance.

The bottom line is there are varying opinions on the lightning-rod quarterback. He has one of the strangest resumes of all time -- moderate regular-season success, historic postseason success, all wrapped around incredible durability and intangibles.

His brother, Peyton, was a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2021. His candidacy was never in doubt. Peyton Manning is considered by most to be one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

"It's not Peyton [Manning] where you can say his name and put the mic down," one voter said.

The Case For Manning

When Manning won his second Super Bowl, it appeared the conversation was over. He had won two Super Bowls in four years while throwing 15 touchdown passes and one interception during the playoff two runs.

This is at the forefront of Manning's case for induction. There is no equal in this regard. Manning performed best on the biggest stage under the most pressure. He not only has two Super Bowl MVPs, he also led two last-minute game-winning drives in those games.

"In my opinion, he's the greatest big-game quarterback that I've ever been around," Manning's former coach Tom Coughlin said. "He's performed incredibly well under those circumstances."

That alone could be enough. Nobody has that level of Super Bowl accomplishment on their resume and isn't in the Hall of Fame.

"I will be supporting his candidacy to go in the Hall of Fame as a first ballot Hall of Famer in 2025," ESPN reporter and Hall of Fame voter Sal Paolantonio said. "He's got two Super Bowl MVPs and the list of retired quarterbacks with two Super Bowl MVPs is very short: They are Bart Starr, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady and ... Eli Manning. That's the list.

"And three of them [Starr, Montana and Bradshaw] are in. We know Brady's going in. Eli's got to go in. And all three were first ballot Hall of Famers. Eli should be a first ballot Hall of Famer."

The other main point brought up by voters who think Manning deserves to be in the Hall of Fame was his numbers. He was seventh all-time in completions (4,895), passing yards (57,023) and touchdowns (366) when he retired.

Alone, this probably wouldn't be enough. But combine it with the two magical playoff runs and Super Bowls and it creates a strong and unique resume.

Manning also showed rare durability throughout his career -- he never missed a game because of injury. It might have been his best trait. As they say, the best ability is availability. Manning made 210 consecutive starts from 2004-17, the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Brett Favre and Philip Rivers. Even when that ended, it wasn't because of injury.

There were comments made by some voters that Manning could benefit from having played in New York and being the ultimate professional. As one voter stated, if how you handle yourself and whether you're an exemplary teammate were traits used against wide receiver Terrell Owens, it will likely be used to support Manning's candidacy.

The Case Against Manning

As one voter described it, the "hurdles are significant" for Manning. Maybe not necessarily to reach the Hall of Fame, but to make it in his first try.

They begin with the belief Manning was not a top-three player at his position for any significant stretch. The argument can actually be made that he wasn't a top-three quarterback in any specific year throughout his 16-season career. Manning never finished higher than sixth in QBR in a single season. He finished inside the top 10 twice (2008 and 2009).

Manning was also never named All-Pro. This is problematic for some. Of course, he played in an era dominated by Brady, his brother Peyton, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Still, the likes of Tony Romo, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer snuck in at least one All-Pro nod. Eli Manning had zero and four Pro Bowl selections. That hurts in the eyes of several voters.

So does his overall record. Manning finished 117-117 in the regular season, a record that suggests mediocrity rather than Hall of Fame worthiness.

A name that is going to come up during the conversation on Manning is undoubtedly former Raiders quarterback Jim Plunkett. He's the only other two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback not in the Hall of Fame, even if he did win Super Bowl MVP.

To some voters, Manning might be the modern-day Plunkett. Modest winning percentage, two ultimate triumphs, a lot of interceptions. It was noted on multiple occasions during the straw poll conversations that Manning led the NFL in interceptions three times during his career and was 12th all time in that category with 244 when he retired.

To the naysayers, that does not translate to the Hall of Fame.

The process

Manning was named among the 25 modern-day semifinalists for the Hall of Fame last week. That list will be pared down to 15 finalists later this year before the full selection committee will meet, discuss and vote at the annual meeting before the Super Bowl to decide the Class of '25.

Players must be approved by 80% of the voters to get in, with between three and five players getting in as modern-era candidates.

For Manning and several other first-time candidates on the list such as linebacker Luke Kuechly and safety Earl Thomas, it's not as simple as: "Are you a Hall of Famer?" on the first try. A lot of it depends on who else is eligible this year.

Strong candidates such as tight end Antonio Gates (six All-Pro selections), defensive end Jared Allen (four first-team All-Pros), offensive tackle Willie Anderson (four All-Pros) and wide receiver Reggie Wayne (three All-Pros) are holdovers. As one voter mentioned, the logjam at wide receiver and offensive line in recent years could make it difficult for newcomers.

There is no shame if Manning isn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It's more a reflection on the process than the individual. Heck, former Giants star Michael Strahan is among those that didn't make it on their first try, despite six All-Pro selections and the single-season sack record on his resume. Strahan was voted in his second year of eligibility.

The general consensus seems to be Manning will eventually get into the Hall of Fame, even if it's not this year.

"He's very, very worthy. It will happen," Coughlin said. "The question is when."