Facts vs. Feelings: Hope for Young, frustration with Harrison, fading Kelce

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

Returning home the week of Thanksgiving after spending five days in Las Vegas covering the Grand Prix and the word "lucky" couldn't be more fitting. The journey from poker to pumpkin pie is by no means conventional, but it has been full. Yes, that's another Turkey Day trope, and it's entirely apt. Because what are we doing if we aren't filling (or stuffing?) every day with an extra helping of goodness?

There is constant chatter about burnout and exhaustion. And much of it is valid. The go-go-go pace of modern life can be entirely taxing. But what if, instead of obligations, we jammed the open spaces of our days with activities (or people) that replenished (rather than depleted) our energy? I returned home from Sin City absolutely knackered (as my new British friends would say), but equally invigorated. A nap was necessary. The smile that hasn't left my face since last week, though? That was the reward.

It's something to think about as we gather with friends and family this Thursday. Rather than feeling stressed about lumps in the mashed potatoes, let's be grateful for the spread. Who cares if the turkey is dry or the table cloth is stained? Hopefully, the folks you're celebrating with are more interested in catching up than showing off. Stick to tradition if it makes you happy. Or start a new practice altogether. Let this be a day that fuels you, not one you're trying to "get through."

Do the same in fantasy. We're two weeks away from the playoffs. This is no time to pull back. The double-digit weeks are all about leaning in. Did you miss on Jordan Addison last Sunday? I did. He blew up my bench. But I'm not perseverating over the past. I want to keep playing well into December. That means taking inventory and going hard, not because it's a chore ... but because it's a delight.

So, set your lineups with the same zeal you use to debate the merits of canned versus homemade cranberry sauce. Liken your flex spot to the marshmallows toasted atop those glorious yams. Stream a defense that -- just like pecan pie -- is equal parts sweet and salty. And remember, it's all extra, friends. We're lucky to enjoy, even if it means needing a nap.

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers: Remaining thankful has surely been a tricky endeavor for Young over the course of 2024, but the 2023 first overall pick appears to have turned a recent corner in his development. Young has thrown for more than 200 passing yards in two of his past four outings while finding the end zone in each contest since Week 8. He's also collected 12 rushing attempts during that span. Coming off of the third-highest fantasy output of his career (16.5 points), the second-year signal-caller figures to, at least, hold on to his job.

Young's 263 passing yards in Week 12 were the second most of his young career. That total included an 8-play, 59-yard drive which put the team in field goal range before halftime. The team scored on six of eight drives, which is even more impressive when considering only Josh Allen and the Bills have scored more points against Kansas City this season.

Young isn't only improving as a passer, he's now totaled 50 rushing yards in his past two games, his first time rushing for 20-plus in back-to-back contests. The matchup versus Tampa Bay is obviously tempting. Without any teams on bye, however, starting Young doesn't make prudent sense. But keeping an eye on his growth and potential consistency does. For right now, the arrow is pointing up.

Jeremy McNichols, RB, Washington Commanders: McNichols saw elevated action after Brian Robinson Jr. exited last Sunday's contest with an ankle injury. The 28-year-old registered only three carries in relief of Robinson, but has been stalking around Washington's backfield since Week 4. To date, McNichols has recorded four games of at least seven carries while also managing four rushing scores on the season. The coaching staff clearly trusts him. A dual-threat talent with powerful legs and sturdy hands, McNichols could be a key streamer this holiday weekend.

The Commanders rank fourth in the league in total rushing attempts (368) and rushing scores (20). While Jayden Daniels certainly pushes those numbers upward, the rushing bounty is big enough for the backs to partake. In fact, Austin Ekeler, Robinson, Daniels and McNichols have each cleared four rushing TDs. If Robinson and/or Ekeler (who was concussed late in last Sunday's loss to the Cowboys) were to miss time, McNichols' odds of finding the end zone would skyrocket. As 5.5-point favorites versus the Titans, he'd be in line for more than just goal line opportunities, providing managers with healthy flex appeal. Keep an eye on the team's injury report and act accordingly.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans: How grateful are we to have Nico back?!? The Texans' alpha has drawn an average of 16 targets in his two games since returning from a hamstring issue that kept him out for five contests. While he technically found the end zone only once, the 25-year-old has had TDs called back due to penalties in back-to-back efforts, further illustrating his red zone prowess. His 79% snap share in Week 12 (up from 49% in Week 11), indicates he is fully back and cleared for total domination.

Collins imposed his will on the Titans in Week 12, logging a 5-92-1 stat line. Those numbers may not initially pop, but given context they certainly impress. Collins' 92 yards were the second most any player has had versus Tennessee thus far into 2024. In fact, not a single player had completed a pass of 30 or more yards downfield versus the Titans upon entering Week 12, making Collins' 56-yard play (which he caught 45 yards down the field) all the more remarkable. In a prime matchup against a Jacksonville secondary that has given up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, Collins enters Week 13 with top-5 appeal. Get greedy!

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Harrison is the front-runner for this year's fantasy tormentor. His talent is undeniable, but his production has been frustratingly scattershot. In fact, the rookie has posted fewer than 70 receiving yards in 10 of 12 games. Frankly, his fantasy stock has been buoyed by TDs. For context, he's logged fewer than 8.0 fantasy points in the seven outings in which he failed to find the end zone. That makes the swing in his stats equal parts infuriating and difficult to predict, and has resulted in his 36.4% "start" rate in Tristan H. Cockcroft's Consistency Ratings (E+).

Admittedly, Harrison's average depth of target (13.7) is listed as the 10th deepest among 79 qualified wide receivers, explaining the existence of a few boom stat lines that offset the busts. However, his 56.3% catch rate ranks as the ninth worst at the position, outlining a persistent issue. A deep threat is not expected to convert at the same rate as a short-range slot man. Yet, the team's intended alpha -- who was selected fourth overall this past April -- should shine in high-variant situations.

Interestingly, he does win in the red area. In fact, Harrison's eight end zone looks (40% team end zone target share) rank inside the top 10 among wide receivers. Gambling on scores, however, is a tricky proposition. The 22-year-old could get lucky versus a vulnerable Vikings secondary that has allowed the seventh-most TDs (13) to his position. Still, he's not easy to trust, which is why managers best view him as a flex option moving forward.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Gray has confounded the fantasy community -- particularly those who invested in Travis Kelce -- over the Chiefs' last pair of games. The 25-year-old tight end hasn't drawn as many looks as Kelce, but he has been hyper-efficient with his opportunities, converting eight of nine targets while finding the end zone a whopping four times since Week 11. While (as discussed above) chasing TDs is a dangerous game, it seems as though Gray's emergence in the passing game is absolutely intentional.

Andy Reid has been equal parts adamant and transparent about wanting to manage Kelce's workload. The 35-year-old averaged nine looks per game for the first half of 2023. That number dropped to seven per contest after Rashee Rice eventually materialized as Patrick Mahomes' go-to option through the second half of the regular season. It wasn't until the 2023 NFL postseason that Kelce's numbers once again spiked.

His usage has followed a similar trajectory this go-around. As the established No. 1, Rice kicked off 2024 as the team's leading pass-catcher, with Kelce playing a distant second fiddle. After Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury, however, Kelce was called back into action. He dominated touches while the team developed Xavier Worthy, traded for DeAndre Hopkins, and (here we are) found ways to get Gray more involved. Noting the chain of events, Kelce's meager stat lines (a total of 70 receiving yards and no TDs) over his past two outings are both understandable and actionable.

Gray could remain a fantasy fluke on his own. Yet, his elevated role indicates Kelce is unlikely to command midseason attention, making the veteran TE a sneaky trade piece for managers with a later-season trade deadline. If that's not possible, then Gray deserves at least streaming consideration in a matchup versus a Raiders squad that's allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the past four weeks.

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