Tristan H. Cockcroft
Mar 13, 2025, 12:45 PM ET
We talk a lot about "value" on these pages, but to define it succinctly, value is when we discover that an opinion we hold about a player rises well above everyone else's.
I've got opinions, just as you should, and here's the place where I share my strongest ones. The 20 names listed below represent my preferred draft targets -- the players I feel the most passionately about for the upcoming season. It's me effectively showing my hand, sharing with you the names of players I most hope to draft this season. (Alas, by revealing them, there's now an excellent chance I won't find the asking price on a single one to be a worthwhile value.)
The following players cover a wide range of league types, primarily ESPN's standard points-based format, but also 12- and 15-team mixed leagues, rotisserie leagues and AL- and NL-only formats.
Good luck in your drafts!
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins: He's throwing every bit as hard and his stuff is every bit as electric this spring as it was before his October 2023 Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins have already made the bold move of tabbing him for their Opening Day start. Alcantara finished 17th, second and 43rd among starting pitchers in fantasy points in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Other than a slight concern of an innings cap (180 IP?), he could have a similar impact in his 2025 return.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians: A sneaky contender for the innings title, Bibee has made very reasonable 24⅔ and 31⅔ inning jumps in his workload over the past two seasons. In 2024, he ranked 20th in fantasy points among starting pitchers. His cutter was excellent against left-handed hitters last season (.125 BAA, 34% whiff rate), giving him a path toward potential growth (lefties hit .263/.320/.460 overall against him in 2024). Bibee is a budding fantasy ace.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: His raw power potential is immense, best evidenced by his average 97.8-mph exit velocity on fly balls and line drives with hard contact on 19.3% of his swings last season. Those numbers ranked eighth- and 19th-best among hitters with at least as many as his 127 batted balls. Caminero should play every day while batting in the heart of the Rays' order, and the team's move into cozier George M. Steinbrenner Field will only help his quest for 30-plus homers.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs: Already one of the game's speediest players, he came around with the bat significantly over the final two months of 2024, batting .284/.337/.466 with seven home runs and 28 RBIs. A subtle adjustment to his stance fueled the improvement, as Crow-Armstrong upped his launch angle more than three degrees and improved his hard-hit rate by 10% during that time (compared to the four months that preceded it). He's in a great position for a potential breakthrough.
Oneil Cruz, SS/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: While he fell short of lofty expectations last season, credit him for one critical thing he did do -- he stayed healthy, playing 146 games without the need for an IL stint. Cruz's underlying metrics were outstanding (97th-percentile Statcast Barrel and hard-hit rates, 88th-percentile sprint speed) making it hard to fathom how he ended up with only 21 homers and 22 steals. He's a prime-age 26 and ready to take a sizable step forward in 2025.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Wrist issues ended his 2024 after only seven weeks and have seemingly cast him into afterthought territory. Encarnacion-Strand's raw power is immense, however, as he has hit four batted balls of 110-plus mph already this spring (and that's just the ones in measured games), after having 10.5% Barrel and 48.4% hard-hit rates during his rookie 2023. Spencer Steer's shoulder woes could well create a roster opportunity for this low-cost sleeper.
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers: His 2024 could have been called a breakthrough, but he's still not yet regarded a member of the fantasy-superstar tier. That's what makes him an attractive value pick for 2025. Greene made several critical strides, slashing 3% from his chase rate, bumping his Barrel rate into the 90th percentile and walking nearly 3% more often. He has some of the best metrics among players going later than the ninth round of drafts.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles: He badly flopped in his first taste of the big leagues, striking out nearly 13% more often while walking less than half as often as he did during his minor league career. That said, he'd hardly be the first "can't miss" prospect to fail in his first MLB stint. (See: Rodriguez, Alex or Trout, Mike.) Holliday still possesses worlds of talent and has a starting role there for the taking. At his current price point -- low-end middle infielder -- I'm betting he'll be much improved the second time around.
Clay Holmes, RP, New York Mets: Three months from now, if his transition from New York Yankees closer to Reynaldo Lopez-esque breakthrough starter has gone as fruitfully as it appears it might, Holmes' success will be inextricably linked to the ascent of the "kick change" -- even if he's hardly the first to use it. Holmes does look great this spring (9⅔ shutout innings, 13 K's across three starts), and the pitch does vastly diversify his repertoire. Even if he throws this well for only around 120 IP, he would be worth his draft price.
Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics: He's the bargain catcher I'd like to roster everywhere, considering his combination of volume, raw power and now a home ballpark that'll accentuate the latter. Temperatures in Sacramento will be high during those midsummer months, and Sutter Health Park's smaller foul territory is way more beneficial to hitters, vastly raising the Athletics' overall power profile. Additionally, Langeliers' skills (87th percentile Barrel, 69th percentile fly ball rates) are well-suited to the venue.
Zebby Matthews, SP, Minnesota Twins: A deep sleeper with a very real path to a spot in the Twins' Opening Day rotation, Matthews is a command whiz (a 10.5 career minor league K/BB rate) with an elite strikeout pitch -- a gyro slider that generated a 38% whiff rate across his nine starts last season and 45% across three spring starts. He'll fly beneath the radar because of his 2024 awful surface stats and initial SP6-7 status on the depth chart, but is a great AL-only or deep-mixed dart throw.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: A tough read, Mitchell has an elite combination of raw speed and plate discipline with decent pop, so long as he can get under the ball often enough to make the latter count. Injuries held him back last season, and he'll need to improve his 56.7% ground ball rate in order to have a breakthrough. Mitchell nevertheless figures to bat cleanup (against right-handers, at least) in an underrated lineup and one of the best power venues in baseball. There's a lot here to like.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Speaking of injuries holding a player back, Pasquantino has struggled mightily with them the past two seasons, missing the final 3.5 months of 2023 due to a torn labrum in his shoulder and the final month of 2024 thanks to a fractured thumb. Around all that, he has been one of the game's best contact hitters -- with well above-average contact quality metrics. Pasquantino metrics befit a top-10 fantasy first baseman, but at a fraction of the price.
Brent Rooker, DH, Athletics: He's my favorite of the Athletics' power hitters set to benefit from the move to Sacramento. Rooker was a road superstar over the past two seasons, with his 41 homers away from Oakland seventh most and his 35.8% fly ball rate fourth best in MLB. Now he'll call a much more HR-conducive ballpark his home. It's not an outrageous claim to suggest he'll actually improve his career-high 39 homer total from 2024, perhaps even contending for the league lead in the category.
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: The final of three repeat names from last year's list (along with Cruz and Greene), Sanchez made substantial gains in 2024, particularly his improvement in both velocity and command of his sinker. Now, he has taken them an extra step so far this spring. His sinker has increased in velocity by another 2 full mph, and he has struck out 12 out of the 30 hitters he has faced. If Sanchez boosts last year's 7.6 K/9 ratio (as it seems he will), he'll have a top-20 SP ceiling.
Justin Slaten, RP, Boston Red Sox: He's the dart throw I love taking in AL-only and deep-mixed leagues, as Slaten's skills are genuinely closer-worthy and he has only injury-risk Liam Hendriks and the struggling Aroldis Chapman ahead of him on the depth chart. Last season, all four of Slaten's offerings had at least a 24% whiff rate. He also had a better-than-50% ground ball rate and was one of the best relievers at minimizing hard contact (a 96th-percentile barrel rate).
Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels: There might not be a player more likely to "bore" his way to 25-plus homers and top-25 fantasy OF status. Ward did so last year, and he even showed hints of growth late in the season, batting .280/.346/.486 with 11 home runs across his final 56 games. During this stretch, he added more than two degrees to his launch angle with little-to-no change to his contact quality. This is the type of "ho-hum player" who constantly gets undervalued.
Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians: At the onset of the winter, while doing my deep-dive research, I wrote in my notes one key trait to track with Williams, "... but bring back the 2023 slider!" Well, through three spring starts, he certainly has, throwing the pitch 16% of the time and generating a whopping 22 swings-and-misses with them. Williams' repertoire looks much deeper this preseason, and I see a top-50 fantasy SP ceiling for him in 2025.
Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners: Injuries are the question mark with him, as he has made three trips to the IL and missed turns in the rotation since August 2023 alone. Woo's improvements with his changeup last season, however, helped him fare better against left-handed hitters (.262 wOBA allowed, after .394 in 2023), and his sweeper (22 K's on 204 career pitches) is emerging as a legitimate elite offering. Considering he's going around the price of a top-50 starter, he's well worth taking the chance.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: He didn't get a fair shake for what was a very respectable 2024 U.S. debut campaign. Now that the Dodgers have the more buzzworthy Roki Sasaki in their rotation, Yamamoto is getting further overshadowed. When healthy, Yamamoto's stuff looked no less filthy than Sasaki's and, over a 12-start span early last year, he posted a 2.41 ERA with a "prorated to 162 games" 208 strikeouts. He's a bona fide fantasy ace, so draft him accordingly.
