ESPN
Dec 20, 2025, 12:21 AM ET
Just win, baby.
None of the hand-wringing around who should be included in the 12-team playoff matters anymore. All that matters is advancing to the next round.
Four teams will do that this weekend. It began Friday when Alabama defeated Oklahoma, moving on to play top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.
Three more teams get their chance Saturday, beginning with Miami's trip to Texas A&M and the winner playing Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
ESPN's college football writers are already looking ahead, so here's a closer look at those quarterfinal matchups.
The Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana
When: Jan. 1, 4 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
Indiana Hoosiers (13-0)
Road to the playoff: Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers heard the hate directed at them at the end of their historic 2024 season and decided to run it back and perform even better this fall. Indiana built on its first 10-win season and first CFP appearance by becoming the only FBS team to run the table, posting a 13-0 mark, winning its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 and securing the top seed in the CFP field.
The Hoosiers navigated a much tougher Big Ten schedule than they did in 2024, taking down Oregon, Iowa and Penn State on the road, thumping then-No. 9 Illinois by 53 points in Bloomington and capping things off with a 13-10 win against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, a matchup that paired the nation's Nos. 1 and 2 teams.
For all the talk about a soft nonleague schedule, Indiana wasn't hindered at all, winning all but two of its regular-season Big Ten games by double digits. The Hoosiers finished second nationally in points margin, outscoring their opponents by 404 points. They had to rally against Penn State and Iowa but were unstoppable at home, winning seven games by an average of 40.7 points.
Player to watch: After a team-record 11 wins in 2024, Indiana looked for areas to upgrade, including quarterback, despite Kurtis Rourke's strong performance (3,042 passing yards, 29 touchdowns). The Hoosiers landed an even more coveted transfer quarterback in Cal's Fernando Mendoza, who elevated the passing attack even further and became the school's first Heisman Trophy winner.
Mendoza has delivered four near-flawless performances with more than 85% completions and four or more touchdowns and no interceptions. He occupies the top three spots on Indiana's single-game completion percentage chart. Mendoza helped rally Indiana for key road wins against Penn State and Iowa and overcame one of his few major mistakes -- a pick-six at Oregon -- to lead two fourth-quarter scoring drives. Mendoza leads the FBS with 33 touchdown passes, an Indiana single-season record.
Biggest question: There aren't many weaknesses in Indiana's profile, as the Hoosiers' offense and defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in many key statistical categories. But if Indiana wants to advance in the CFP, it likely will face some key fourth-down situations and might need to find greater efficiency. The Hoosiers ended the season 8 of 16 on fourth down, which is tied for 90th nationally and ranks well below other CFP teams such as Texas A&M, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama. Indiana failed on all three of its fourth-down chances in a 20-15 win at Iowa and went 0-for-1 the following week at Oregon. The good news is IU then became much better on the money down, converting its final five fourth-down attempts, including a fourth-and-2 late in the first half against Ohio State to set up a field goal.
They can win if ...: The Hoosiers can successfully execute a balanced offense, as they have for most of the season. Mendoza's arrival and success have at times overshadowed Indiana's run game, which is significantly better than it was in 2024. The Hoosiers rank 11th nationally in rushing (221.1 yards per game), up from 63rd last season (165.1). Indiana committed to the run even in lower-scoring games, as it showed against Iowa (39 attempts), Penn State (31) attempts and Ohio State (34 attempts). The offense can't deviate from that approach against an Alabama defense that defends the run well but doesn't rank among the nation's very best. Indiana also is brilliant in the turnover game, tying Texas Tech for the national lead in margin at plus-17. -- Adam Rittenberg
Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3)
What we learned in Round 1: Alabama might not have looked as good Friday night as it did in September and October, but the Crimson Tide still showed it had another gear to kick into en route to matching the largest comeback in CFP history against Oklahoma. Unforced errors crushed the Crimson Tide in their 23-21 loss to the Sooners in November. In the opening round rematch, Alabama flipped the script, storming back from a 17-0 deficit behind Zabien Brown's 50-yard pick-six and a disciplined performance from quarterback Ty Simpson, who looked much more like himself two weeks from a disastrous showing in the SEC title game. The Crimson Tide played the kind of (largely) mistake-free football that eluded them over the back half of the regular season. They'll need to do it again when they meet No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day.
Player to watch: With touchdowns on either side of halftime in the first round matchup with Oklahoma, freshman wide receiver Lotzeir Brooks joined some elite company as only the fifth Alabama pass catcher to record two receiving scores in a CFP game. Alongside him on that list: DeVonta Smith (twice), O.J. Howard, Calvin Ridley and Amari Cooper. Brooks caught five passes for 79 yards in his CFP debut, finishing as the Crimson Tide's leading receiver in the 34-24 win. Within a pass-catching corps that features Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton, Brooks is as dynamic as anyone, and he could be a difference-maker once again against the Hoosiers 19th-ranked pass defense.
They can win if ...: Alabama limits its mistakes, and Simpson plays like the Heisman-caliber quarterback we saw over the first half of the season. The Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma at its own game in the first round, forcing quarterback John Mateer into timely errors and pouncing on miscues such as Grayson Miller's bobbled punt attempt before halftime. Couple that with composed, accurate quarterback play from Simpson, and the Crimson Tide have the tools to give Indiana trouble. -- Eli Lederman
