Derek Rae
Apr 24, 2025, 10:49 AM ET
While there is little suspense at the very top of the Bundesliga table, with Bayern Munich traveling inexorably to a Meisterschale lift, we're in very different and more competitive territory in the European qualification shakeup. When the music stops on May 17, it's difficult to say with any certainty who will occupy positions three through six, namely the up-for-grabs European places awarded on league merit.
So, who will international spielen (qualify for Europe)? In the absence of guarantees, here is my assessment of the runners and riders.
3. Eintracht Frankfurt | 52 pts | +16 GD
Remaining schedule: vs. RB Leipzig, at Mainz, vs. St. Pauli, at SC Freiburg
I have a good friend in Frankfurt who veers reflexively to the pessimistic on matters Eintracht, but I'm here to say: optimism should prevail. Yes, Dino Toppmöller's side put in perhaps their least compelling first half of the season in Augsburg on Sunday, but it came on the back of an exacting and emotionally difficult UEFA Europa League exit against Tottenham Hotspur.
Now granted, this Sunday's Direktduell with Leipzig, their chief rivals for third place, is gargantuan and Eintrach scheiterte (a great word for failed!) in the two previous head-to-head meetings with them. Plus, without the influence of the injured Mario Götze, there's not the same flow.
In Götze's absence, Toppmöller on Sunday went for a Systemumstellung (change of shape) to two up front before reverting to the setup that had previously served the club well with Hugo Ekitike partnerless.
Eintracht should nail down not just European football, but a UEFA Champions League spot, and I expect them to do it before the potentially difficult trip to Freiburg on the final day.
4. RB Leipzig | 49 points | +10 GD
Remaining schedule: at Eintracht Frankfurt, vs. Bayern Munich, at Werder Bremen, vs. VfB Stuttgart
Leipzig have ascended to the Champions League on all but one occasion since becoming a Bundesliga side in 2016. Their prospects this term look wackelig (shaky) to say the least. Saturday's 1-1 draw with bottom club Holstein Kiel, particularly in the first half, provided scant evidence that RBL in their current guise under interim manager Zsolt Löw are good enough.
Somehow, thanks to Mainz conceding in the 89th minute against VfL Wolfsburg, Leipzig managed to hold on to fourth place, but the fixture list is far from straightforward and captain Péter Gulácsi's absence in Frankfurt this weekend due to concussion protocol rules is not what Leipzig need.
I do think Leipzig will represent Germany in Europe but have limited confidence in them reaching the Champions League this time, which would mean an enormous financial blow for a club that has grown accustomed to qualifying.
5. Freiburg | 48 points | -4 GD
Remaining schedule: at Wolfsburg, vs. Bayer Leverkusen, at Holstein Kiel, vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
1:56
SC Freiburg vs. TSG Hoffenheim - Game Highlights
Watch the Game Highlights from SC Freiburg vs. TSG Hoffenheim, 04/19/2025
In Julian Schuster's first season in charge, Freiburg have been on something of an Achterbahnfahrt (roller coaster ride), but it's one that promises to end positively. Their results come in strange waves: four victories in a row, followed by five without a win and now a two-match winning sequence for the Breisgau club. Vincenzo Grifo and Ritsu Doan, inverted wingers both, are their key producers but their unyielding spirit of the club is embodied by Saturday's player of the match in the win against TSG Hoffenheim: striker Lucas Höler. By no means a prolific scorer, Höler's a hefty handful and his skills include ball winning and pressing, the ultimate Arbeitstier (workhorse).
There's every reason to believe Freiburg will be in Europe, but as for which competition? It could genuinely be any one of three.
6. Mainz | 47 points | +12 GD
Remaining schedule: at Bayern Munich, vs. Eintracht Frankfurt, at VfL Bochum, vs. Bayer Leverkusen
While commentating for the Bundesliga's world feed on the Mainz-Wolfsburg game this past weekend, I could sense the nervousness in the MEWA Arena near the end. Mainz, ahead 2-1, were on the cusp of ending a four-game run without a win but conceded an 89th-minute leveler to Denis Vavro. It all went eerily quiet as the Rheinhessen dropped from fourth place to sixth on the Blitztabelle (live table.)
With the current top three still to come, it will take something quite extraordinary for Bo Henriksen's team to reach Europe at all, let alone the Champions League. The good news is captain and record top-flight scorer Jonathan Burkardt returned last week and Phillipp Mwene will be back on Saturday at Bayern.
7. Borussia Dortmund | 45 points | +10 GD
Remaining schedule: at Hoffenheim, vs. Wolfsburg, at Bayer Leverkusen, vs. Holstein Kiel
Yes, let's get to the schwarz-gelb (black and yellow) elephant in the room. I have been bullish about Dortmund for a few weeks now, mainly because the confidence is back, and they clearly have the beating of most Bundesliga sides. Credit to Niko Kovač, he has simplified things and found a system that plays to the advantages of most of the key players. Using a Dreierkette (back three) is part of that, and on Sunday in the win over Borussia Monchengladbach, he was able to accommodate Maximilian Beier, Serhou Guirassy and Karim Adeyemi in attack. Beier had to go off injured in the 34th minute and was taken to hospital but the injury is not as severe as was first feared.
The green shoots of recovery have been evident in recent weeks, particularly in the second half of the spirited 2-2 draw with Bayern. I see Dortmund as a European team next season and will not be surprised given their fixture list and league form -- ten points from four games -- if they return to the Champions League. The trend is their friend.
8. Werder Bremen | 45 points | -6 GD
Remaining schedule: vs. St. Pauli, at Union Berlin, vs. RB Leipzig, at Heidenheim
If you want to find a team that's formstark (in form), look no further than the team from the Weser. That Werder are in the running for Europe at all is astonishing, considering their late winter sag of seven competitive defeats in a row, but now are buoyed by four straight victories. It's easy to see a path into continental competition for Ole Werner's side, especially with a manageable run-in.
Mitchell Weiser remains the player most likely to decide games in their favor, but a special mention must go to Scottish attacker Oliver Burke, who has become a regular, was the fastest player in the Bundesliga last weekend and -- much to Bremen's chagrin -- has agreed to a long-term deal with Union.
9. Borussia Monchengladbach | 44 Points | +2 GD
Remaining schedule: at Holstein Kiel, vs. Hoffenheim, at Bayern Munich, vs. Wolfsburg
Gladbach are heading in the wrong direction at a crucial time and will probably have to win three of their final four matches to even have a chance of qualifying for Europe. Tim Kleindienst has been a colossus since joining from Heidenheim and at least they have Franck Honorat fit again to supply deliveries for the tall center forward. It is possible to envisage a couple of wins on the bounce against Kiel and Hoffenheim, which might reset the scales to the advantage of die Fohlen (the Foals.)
10. FC Augsburg | 43 points | -7 GD
Remaining schedule: at Bayer Leverkusen, vs. Holstein Kiel, at Stuttgart, vs. Union Berlin
Obdurate and obstinate, Augsburg have already hit their target of the Klassenerhalt (staying up) and making sure of a 15th successive Bundesliga season. Young defender Chrislain Matsima is a star in the making but their strength lies mostly in the collective, coached superbly by Jess Thorup. A European place would be the cherry on top, but it's unlikely now.
11. Stuttgart | 41 points | +6 GD
Remaining schedule: at Heidenheim, at St. Pauli, vs. Augsburg, at RB Leipzig
This has been a perplexing season for Stuttgart, yet they might end up with their first trophy since 2007, considering they're clear favorites to win the German Cup at the expense of third-tier Arminia Bielefeld. They have attacking firepower, as shown in the thrilling 4-4 draw with Union on Saturday, and Nick Woltemade in his first season wearing the white shirt with the red Brustring (the stripe on the chest) has emerged as the standout performer.
Still, a top-six finish now looks beyond VfB. Peaking on the big day in Berlin at the end of May is the priority.
