U.S. Open tiers: Ranking every player from favorites to hopefuls

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  • Mark SchlabachJun 9, 2025, 10:08 AM ET

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    • Senior college football writer
    • Author of seven books on college football
    • Graduate of the University of Georgia

OAKMONT, Pa. -- Could the toughest test in men's professional golf get even more difficult at Oakmont Country Club, the site of this week's 125th U.S. Open?

Early scouting reports of the revamped course outside Pittsburgh from tour pros the past few weeks have included descriptions like "carnage," "cooked beyond belief" and the "hardest course in the world."

Grab the popcorn and get ready to see who can survive the ankle-high rough, tightened fairways, famous Church Pews bunker and lightning-fast (and firm) greens that will leave many golfers feeling like they're putting downhill at an ice rink.

"I've heard from several players, it's the hardest course they've ever played," Xander Schauffele said. "That's kind of [what] most people have talked about. Not much detail on why. Just it's long and the rough is impossible, and you can end up hitting 50-yard pitches trying to get up and down for par on every hole, something of that nature."

It's the 10th time Oakmont is hosting the U.S. Open, and there's a reason the United States Golf Association keeps going back -- to give golfers their most difficult test of the season.

"I would say all of the rumors and everything are pretty on point," added Justin Thomas, who played a practice round at Oakmont two weeks ago.

Here's a look at the field, including the contenders, sleepers, qualifiers and amateurs:

Jump to a section:
The clear favorite | Guys who can win | If everything goes right
Miracles happen | Happy to make the cut | Qualifiers | Amateurs


It's Scottie Scheffler's world once again in men's professional golf, and everyone else just seems to be witnessing what he'll do next. After capturing last month's PGA Championship to go with his two Masters victories, Scheffler can complete three-fourths of the career Grand Slam with a victory on Sunday.

Tier I: The clear favorite

Scottie Scheffler

Yeah, forget about Scheffler being off to a slow start. The world No. 1 golfer heads to Oakmont Country Club on another epic heater, having won in three of his past four starts (by a whopping 17 strokes combined!), including his 16th PGA Tour victory at the Memorial Tournament. He's turning into Mariano Rivera during the second nine on Sunday, converting each of his past seven 54-hole leads.

He has fond memories of Oakmont; he carded a 1-under 69 in his first round in a major in the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont as a 19-year-old sophomore at the University of Texas. He missed the cut by one stroke after posting an 8-over 78 in the second round. If he's accurate off the tee, he'll be difficult to beat.


Tier II: The guys who can win

Here are the legitimate contenders to win the U.S. Open. They have the game, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds on a setup that is traditionally the most difficult among the majors.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau captured his second U.S. Open title at Pinehurst, despite missing nearly half the fairways (57%) over four rounds. He won by outdriving everyone else (310.9-yard average), hitting greens and putting lights-out. He'll have to be more accurate off the tee at Oakmont, and he wasn't happy with his iron play at the Masters and PGA Championship. Still, he has finished tied for sixth or better in five of the past six majors.

Rory McIlroy

Rory will try to exorcise his demons from last year's U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, where he squandered a 2-stroke lead with five holes to play and missed short putts on Nos. 16 and 18. He lost to DeChambeau by 1 shot. McIlroy missed the cut in his only start at Oakmont nine years ago. He doesn't seem to have much confidence off the tee right now; he missed the cut at last week's RBC Canadian Open after hitting only 13 of 28 fairways in two rounds. McIlroy planned on testing several new drivers over the weekend to find one he likes.

Collin Morikawa

The two-time major champion is a two-time runner-up this season, at the season-opening Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Morikawa hasn't won in more than 19 months; his last victory on tour came at the Zozo Championship in Japan in October 2023. That drought has to end sometime soon. He's extremely accurate off the tee (72.9%) and is a world-class ball striker (67.6% greens in regulation).

Jon Rahm

The LIV Golf League star got himself into the mix against Scheffler on the second nine of the final round of the PGA Championship but collapsed down the stretch. Rahm, who won the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, finished in a tie for 12th or better in four of his past five starts in the tournament. He was wildly inaccurate off the tee at Quail Hollow, which would spell disaster for him this week.

Russell Henley

Henley collected his fifth PGA Tour victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and followed that with a tie for eighth at the RBC Heritage and for fifth at the Memorial. He tied for seventh in the 2024 U.S. Open at 1 under. Henley ranks 16th on tour in strokes gained: approach (.538) and 11th around the green (.393). He's tied for 12th in driving accuracy (67.7%), which will help at Oakmont, too.

Sepp Straka

Straka is one of the more underrated golfers on tour, having already won twice this season at the American Express and Truist Championship. He also has piled up five top-10s and 11 top-25s in 13 starts, all but securing his spot on the European Ryder Cup team. He'll look for a better showing this week after missing the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship. He doesn't miss fairways (68.5% fairways hit), leads the tour in greens in regulation (71.4%) and is 17th in strokes gained: putting (.427).

Xander Schauffele

Schauffele's putter seems to be warming up, which was about the only thing holding him back since his return from a rib injury. He can grab the third leg of a career Grand Slam after winning the PGA Championship and Open Championship last year. Remarkably, he finished in the top 10 in seven of his eight starts in the U.S. Open, including a tie for seventh last year.

Ludvig Åberg

Inconsistency is about the only thing holding Åberg back from being at the top of the upper echelon of the sport. The 25-year-old Swedish golfer finished first at the Genesis Invitational and solo seventh at the Masters. Surprisingly, he ranks 77th in strokes gained: total (.214), 109th in approach (-.025) and 129th in putting (-.144). Still, his game seems tailor-made to win a U.S. Open.

Hideki Matsuyama

The 2019 Masters champion missed the cut at the PGA Championship, which ended his streak of playing on the weekend at 19 straight majors. He finished in the top 10 in two of the past three U.S. Opens, although his accuracy off the tee (55.3%) might be a concern at Oakmont.

Justin Thomas

JT has cooled off a bit after a sizzling start to the season, which included a playoff victory at the RBC Heritage and three runner-up finishes. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and tied for 31st at the Memorial, in which he was undone by an opening-round 80. He played much better on the weekend.

Shane Lowry

Outside of a missed cut at the PGA Championship, the Irishman has played consistently as he continues to ramp up for his return in July to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, the site of his last individual PGA Tour victory in the 2019 Open Championship (Lowry and McIlroy won last year's Zurich Classic of New Orleans). He tied for runner-up at 2016 U.S. Open, three strokes behind winner Dustin Johnson, after taking a 4-shot lead into the final round.

Harris English

The 35-year-old won for the fifth time on tour at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, then tied for second at the PGA Championship, his best career finish in a major. If he tightens up his iron play and touch around the greens, his putting is good enough to get him in contention again.

Patrick Cantlay

It has been more than 2½ years since Cantlay lifted a trophy, but he was in the mix on the back nine of the final round at Pinehurst, where he tied for third at 4 under. He ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained: total (1.124) and approach (.628).

Justin Rose

The 2013 U.S. Open winner was runner-up at the 2024 Open Championship and lost in a playoff to McIlroy at the Masters in April, so he's still good enough to get in the mix. He missed the cut in four of the past five U.S. Opens.

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood has been a top-25 machine this season, finishing in the top 22 in all but two of his 12 starts on tour. He tied for fourth in the Charles Schwab Challenge and for 16th at the Memorial. He's still searching for an elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Viktor Hovland

Hovland's love-hate relationship with his swing is a never-ending drama, but he seemed to be in a better place recently. He's still an exceptional iron player and hits enough fairways, but will his short game and putting hold up on Oakmont's diabolical green structures?

Aaron Rai

If keeping the ball in the fairway is a prerequisite for contending at Oakmont, no one on tour does it better than Rai, who leads in driving accuracy (73.4%). He'll have to do a better job on the greens, too.

Tyrrell Hatton

USGA setups don't seem to fit Hatton's eye. He finished in the top 10 only once, tying for sixth in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills in Long Island, New York. He has played like one of the best golfers in the world for a while now.

Corey Conners

The Canadian golfer hits most fairways (68.8%) and greens (70%) and is putting better this season. He tied for ninth at Pinehurst last season.

Ben Griffin

It's hard to believe that the former North Carolina star was working as a mortgage loan officer four years ago and nearly walked away from the sport. Griffin and Andrew Novak captured the team event in New Orleans, and then Griffin picked up his first individual title at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He was runner-up at last week's Memorial Tournament and doesn't seem ready to slow down anytime soon, even in his first start in the U.S. Open.

Joaquín Niemann

A four-time winner in the LIV Golf League this year, Niemann finally collected a top-10 in a major with a tie for eighth in the PGA Championship. It might be the breakthrough he needed to make some noise in the big four.


Tier III: If everything goes right

Here are the sleeper candidates to lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday. The list includes former major championship winners, rising stars and other players whose games have been works in progress this season. Will it all come together at Oakmont?

Tony Finau

Finau seemed to wake up from his slumber with top-20 finishes at the Truist Championship and PGA Championship. He tied for third last year after carding a 3-under 67 on Sunday.

Brian Harman

Harman won the 2023 Open Championship in tough conditions and made the cut in each of the past five U.S. Opens, tying for 21st at Pinehurst. He won the Valero Texas Open in April and tied for third in the RBC Heritage.

Cameron Smith

Smith's putting prowess would seem to make him a good fit at Oakmont. He missed the cut in the past three majors, leaving many to wonder if he's playing often enough in the LIV Golf League to contend again.

Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick's tie for eighth at the PGA Championship was a sign that his form might be back. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, in not-so-great conditions.

Jordan Spieth

Since becoming the youngest golfer since Bobby Jones in 1923 to win the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in 2015, Spieth has one top-20 finish in nine starts, tying for 19th four years ago.

Brooks Koepka

The two-time U.S. Open winner used to show up at majors believing he was better than everyone else in the field. He hasn't had a top-10 in a major since winning his third PGA Championship title in 2023. He missed the cut in the first two majors this year.

Min Woo Lee

"Dr. Chipinski" has three straight strong finishes in the U.S. Open, including a tie for fifth at Los Angeles Country Club two years ago. His form hasn't been great since the Masters.

Sam Burns

After limping into the Masters, Burns has played better golf the past couple of months. He seemed to have a breakthrough in majors by tying for ninth in the 2024 U.S. Open, and he leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting, which will help on Oakmont's intimidating greens.

Ryan Fox

The golfer from New Zealand earned an exemption into the field Sunday by defeating Burns in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open. It was Fox's second win in four starts; he also finished first in the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic.

Andrew Novak

Novak has been one of the biggest surprises on tour this season, teaming up with Griffin to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and losing to Thomas in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. It's just his second start in the U.S. Open.

Patrick Reed

Reed keeps showing up on the leaderboard on Sundays at Augusta National, but he hasn't had similar success in the other three majors. His only top-10 in the U.S. Open was solo fourth in 2018.

Robert MacIntyre

The Scottish golfer captured two national championships last year: the Canadian Open and Scottish Open. He'd like to add a U.S. Open and called Oakmont "absolute carnage on a simulator, never mind the actual event."

Daniel Berger

Berger has a couple of top-10s in the U.S. Open in his career, and he was playing well before back-to-back missed cuts at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial.

Davis Riley

Riley had a breakthrough at the PGA Championship, tying for second at 6 under, his best finish in a major.

Tom Kim

Kim has stacked up three straight finishes of 26th or better in the U.S. Open, including a tie for eighth in 2023. He has struggled the past two months on tour.

Maverick McNealy

It's McNealy's first U.S. Open start since he qualified as an 18-year-old amateur at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014.

Akshay Bhatia

After a lull in April and early May, Bhatia has played better in recent weeks. He tied for 16th in the 2024 U.S. Open and has all the shots you need to contend, especially on the greens.

Thomas Detry

Detry isn't particularly accurate off the tee (56.6%) and has struggled with his irons, but he putts lights-out and tied for 14th at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.

Si Woo Kim

What else does Kim have in his bag after he recorded the longest ace in major championship history on the 252-yard, par-3 sixth hole at Quail Hollow Club in the PGA Championship?

Keegan Bradley

The U.S. Ryder Cup team captain missed the cut at the U.S. Open in four of his past six starts. He tied for seventh in 2022.

Jason Day

Day tied for eighth at 2 over the last time the U.S. Open was played at Oakmont. He hasn't competed on tour since missing the cut at the PGA Championship; he injured his left wrist while moving a bike.

J.T. Poston

Poston tied for fifth at the PGA Championship, his best finish in a major, and his form was trending well before a missed cut at the Memorial.

Denny McCarthy

McCarthy had three straight solid finishes in the U.S. Open, tying for seventh in 2022, and his putting gives him a chance to make some noise.

Michael Kim

Kim has cooled off after his sizzling spring, when he piled up five straight top-15s. It's only his third U.S. Open start; he was low amateur and tied for 17th in 2013.

Davis Thompson

Thompson tied for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year, his best finish in a major. The 26-year-old is immensely talented but still struggling with consistency.

Dustin Johnson

DJ survived a scoring controversy in the final round to win the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont. He has been a nonfactor in majors the past two seasons.

Wyndham Clark

Clark's form has been trending in the wrong direction for weeks, and his inaccuracy off the tee (56.5%) and struggling iron play (63.8%) probably aren't a recipe for success at Oakmont.

Sungjae Im

He's another golfer who keeps his tee shots between the lines (68.7%), although he missed the cut in each of his past three starts in this tournament.

J.J. Spaun

Spaun is a two-time runner-up on tour this season, losing to McIlroy in a Monday playoff at the Players. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2021.

Jacob Bridgeman

The former Clemson star might be a sneaky pick to contend this week. He's one of the best putters on tour, has four top-10 finishes and performed well at Oakmont in the 2021 U.S. Amateur.

Rasmus Højgaard

Højgaard is a five-time winner on the DP World Tour. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2020.

Joe Highsmith

Highsmith has been a breakout performer so far this season, winning the Cognizant Classic and tying for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Ryan Gerard

Gerard will look to build on his surprising tie for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Lucas Glover

Glover's putting has gone cold again, which is a reason he hasn't been in contention as much as he'd like this season. He played in two previous U.S. Opens at Oakmont, in 2007 and 2016, missing the cut in both.

Matthieu Pavon

Pavon became the first French golfer to win on the PGA Tour in January 2024 with a victory at a U.S. Open course in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He was solo fifth at Pinehurst No. 2 last year.

Nick Taylor

The Canadian golfer is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour, but he's still searching for success in the majors.

Taylor Pendrith

Another golfer from north of the border, Pendrith finished in the top 20 in two of his past three majors, tying for 16th at the 2024 U.S. Open and for fifth at last month's PGA Championship.

Adam Scott

The 2013 Masters champion's best days on the course are probably in the rearview mirror. He has one top-10 in a major since tying for seventh at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Cameron Young

Young, once ranked 13th in the Official World Golf Ranking, had to go through final qualifying to make the field. He has played better lately.

Bud Cauley

After missing more than three seasons because of injuries suffered in a 2018 car accident, Cauley is back in the U.S. Open for the first time in eight years.

Stephan Jager

Jäger, from Germany, tied for 21st in the 2024 U.S. Open. He made early noise at the PGA Championship before fading on the weekend.


Tier IV: Hey, miracles happen

These are the long shots. This tier includes a handful of older former major champions and PGA Tour regulars.

Gary Woodland
Brian Campbell
Cam Davis
Laurie Canter
Mackenzie Hughes
Jhonattan Vegas
Nico Echavarria
Max Greyserman
Sam Stevens
Emiliano Grillo
Matt Wallace
Marc Leishman
Chris Kirk
Tom Hoge
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Byeong Hun An
Thriston Lawrence
Mark Hubbard
Lanto Griffin
Justin Lower
Richard Bland
Eric Cole
Doug Ghim
Carlos Ortiz

Did Vegas catch lightning in a bottle at the PGA Championship when he grabbed the 18- and 36-hole leads and tied for fifth at 5 under? He has never finished in the top 40 in the U.S. Open.

Woodland captured the 2019 U.S. Open, Kirk is a six-time winner on tour, and Leishman has won 14 times around the world, including once in the LIV Golf League. They're more than capable of stringing together four solid rounds if their form is better.


Tier V: Happy to make the cut

These players aren't expected to be among the contenders unless something wild happens.

Phil Mickelson​​
Nick Dunlap
Matt McCarty
Erik van Rooyen
Thorbjørn Olesen
Victor Perez
Niklas Nørgaard
Zac Blair
Chris Gotterup
Will Chandler
Trevor Cone
James Hahn
Adam Schenk

Mickelson, a six-time major champion, acknowledged earlier this week that this might be his last chance to complete the career Grand Slam. It is the final year of his five-year exemption for capturing the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island, South Carolina, where he became the oldest major championship winner.

Mickelson, 54, is a six-time runner-up in the U.S. Open, most recently in 2013. He missed the cut in four of his past five starts in the event and hasn't finished in the top 40 since tying for 28th in 2014.

Dunlap won twice on tour last season, once as an amateur and another as a rookie after turning pro. He has struggled mightily since then, however, missing the cut in six of his past nine starts. He hasn't played on the weekend in any of his five major appearances the past two seasons.


Tier VI: The qualifiers

Here are the remaining players among the 65 qualifiers who aren't PGA Tour regulars and included in tiers above or below. They went through local and final qualifying to grab spots in the field. The last qualifier to win the U.S. Open was Lucas Glover in 2009.

Yuta Sugiura
James Nicholas
Roberto Díaz
Ben James
Zach Bauchou
Scott Vincent
Jordan Smith
Joakim Lagergren
Jinichiro Kozuma
Guido Migliozzi
Frédéric Lacroix
Sam Bairstow
Edoardo Molinari
Jacques Kruyswijk
Andrea Pavan
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
Alistair Docherty
Johnny Keefer
Alvaro Ortiz
Emilio Gonzalez
Trent Phillips
George Kneiser
Chandler Blanchet
Justin Hicks
Philip Barbaree Jr.
Jackson Buchanan
Ryan McCormick
Bryan Lee
Harrison Ott
Grant Haefner
George Duangmanee
Kevin Velo
Brady Calkins
Joey Herrera
Austen Truslow
Chase Johnson
Matthew Jordan
Takumi Kanaya
Riki Kawamoto
Riley Lewis
Maxwell Moldovan

Nicholas, from New York, played football for one season at Yale and was on its golf team for four. His grandfather Dr. James A. Nicholas was an orthopedic surgeon who operated on Jets quarterback Joe Namath's knee four times. Nicholas was the Ivy League Player of the Year in 2019.

Hicks, 50, actually held a share of the first-round lead at 3 under in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, in which Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in sudden death after an 18-hole playoff. Hicks, now a golf instructor in Boca Raton, Florida, tied for 74th at 17 over.

Haefner, who played at Wayne State University in Michigan, had one of the most dramatic finishes on golf's longest day, sinking a 60-foot putt from off the green on the 36th hole to earn medalist honors in final qualifying at Springfield Country Club in Ohio.

Go ahead and DO THAT, Grant Haefner!

The Bloomfield Hills native had the absolutely appropriate reaction to clinching his spot in the U.S. Open. pic.twitter.com/Vgp0cg0McV

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 2, 2025

Tier VII: The amateurs

Here are the amateur players who will attempt to do what stars such as Cantlay, Mickelson, Rahm, Spieth and so many others did at the U.S. Open before turning pro: win a medal as a low amateur.

Jose Luis Ballester
Noah Kent
Evan Beck
Trevor Gutschewski
Michael La Sasso
Justin Hastings
Lance Simpson
Cameron Tankersley
Frankie Harris
Mason Howell
Tyler Weaver
Jackson Koivun
Matt Vogt
Preston Summerhays
Zachery Pollo

There are a whopping 15 amateurs in the field, including nine who advanced through final qualifying, and many of them once again have compelling stories.

Vogt, 34, grew up in Pittsburgh and was once a caddie at Oakmont. He played at Butler University in Indianapolis, where he now works as a dentist. He was the medalist in final qualifying in Walla Walla, Washington, he wore a ribbon on his hat in tribute to his recently deceased father, who used to track his scores on his phone.

A caddie turned dentist turned U.S. Open competitor! 👏 👏 👏

If you watch one Golf's Longest Day interview, make sure it's this one from Matthew Vogt. pic.twitter.com/f1WEehPfsG

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 3, 2025

Howell, 17, is a rising senior in high school in Thomasville, Georgia. He went 18 under and didn't make a bogey in two rounds during final qualifying on June 2 at Piedmont Driving Club in Atlanta. He is committed to play at the University of Georgia as part of the 2026 class.

La Sasso, a junior at Ole Miss, got into the field by capturing last month's NCAA Division I individual national championship. The All-American posted the lowest scoring average in program history (69.48) and won three times this past season. Tankersley, his Ole Miss teammate, made the field through open qualifying.

Gutschewski just graduated from Westside High School in Omaha, Nebraska, and is headed to the University of Florida. His father, Scott, is a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, and his older brother, Luke, played at Iowa State. Gutschewski earned a U.S. Open spot by capturing the 2024 U.S. Junior Amateur.

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