Week 10 betting guide: Ravens continue ascent, plus more game bets and props galore

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let's dive in to Week 10. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

San Francisco 49ers to cover +4.5 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Bowen: I'll take the 49ers and the points at home. Back in Week 5, coach Kyle Shanahan had passing game answers for the Rams' defense, as Mac Jones threw for 342 yards. Whether we see Jones again or the return of Brock Purdy (toe), I'm confident in Shanahan's ability to scheme up the Rams' split-safety coverages. And that L.A. defense will see an upgraded San Francisco run game this time around with tight end George Kittle on the field.

Baltimore Ravens to cover -4.5 (-105) at Vikings

Solak: We're not getting the best of this line, as it moved across -4 over the course of this week. So long as we can get it before -5, I think there's still value.

I wrote last week that we might not have much longer to fade J.J. McCarthy. Of course, he and the Vikings won as a 9-point underdog in Detroit. Nothing about McCarthy's performance in that game, however, has me changing my sentiment. Minnesota had five scoring drives, three of which began at the Lions' 35-yard line or closer. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and the defense had a wind-back-the-clock game, as Jared Goff took five sacks and averaged a success rate of only 20% when pressured.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a much, much different challenge to pressure with the blitz. Since the start of last season, Jackson is first in EPA per dropback and success rate against the blitz -- both by comfortable margins. Whereas quarterbacks such as Goff shred the blitz with quick releases and good post-snap reads, Jackson has the athleticism to create big plays even when the defense manufactures free rushers. And if the Vikings elect to play drop coverage and spy Jackson, as previous defenses have done with success, expect Baltimore to lean back in to that running game. No defense has faced more carries or given up more yards to offenses running the ball out of multi-tight-end sets than the Vikings.

Still, at its core, this is a bet fading McCarthy and a Vikings offense that will remain a high-sack, high-interception unit until McCarthy is able to settle his game down. I will also be on -7.5 at +175 and -10.5 at +260.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears total points OVER 46.5 (-110)

Solak: It's worth keeping a close eye on the forecast in this game. With temperatures in the 30s and a chance of precipitation, we might see our first flakes of the NFL season over Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. But the chance is currently low enough and expected snowfall light enough that, if indeed there is snow, I'm willing to buy the number now.

The Giants lug the league's worst run defense -- 32nd in EPA per rush, 30th in success rate -- into Chicago. We've seen Chicago recently dominate some poor run defenses (Cincinnati, Washington, Dallas) with high point totals. They'll score fast on the ground, too, because of how explosive their running game (and subsequent play-action passing game) is.

The Giants have been productive in garbage time, as they highly value getting Jaxson Dart reps and confidence. If they're in a trailing script, as we expect, they'll also get the benefit of facing the league's 31st-ranked pass defense by success rate.

Waiting on more weather information is a fine approach here, but be aware that 47 is an important number in totals, so getting the hook on 46.5 is well worth the risk of a poor meteorological break.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover -2.5 (-115) vs. New England Patriots

Bowen: This game is a real test for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Under coach Todd Bowles, this Bucs defense will disguise, change the picture and bring pressure from both the second and third levels. Tampa Bay owns a blitz rate of 31.9% (sixth highest in the league), so expect Bowles to heat up Drake Maye in this one. With that defense, plus Baker Mayfield's ability to make plays in critical moments, I like the Bucs to cover at home.

Buccaneers team total OVER 24.5 (-115) vs. Patriots

Solak: I've been bullish on the Patriots and remain bullish on them for the rest of the season. But one of the reasons for Patriots excitement was the weakness of their schedule. This particular week, they don't get that crutch.

The Patriots have played nine unique opponents through their 7-2 start. Only one opponent (the Bills) has an above-average EPA per dropback or dropback success rate on the season. The Patriots have played the five worst offenses by points per drive (Titans, Browns, Saints, Raiders and Falcons) this season.

As such, their defense is likely overrated in the market. While the Buccaneers have not been the consistent flamethrower they were on offense last season, they are still 12th in EPA per dropback and expect to get right tackle Luke Goedeke back for this game. Tampa Bay is also coming off a bye, and, having endured a constant trickle of injuries week over week, will benefit from an additional week's worth of rest. The game plan should be sharper, and the nagging injuries should be less problematic.

I think both the full-game total and Buccaneers' team total are good bets, but I lean Buccaneers here for the potential of a brutal Maye turnover that can affect the Patriots scoreboard negatively and the Bucs positively.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans total points UNDER 37.5 (-115)

Solak: The Texans under was a winner for us last week, and we're back to the well with Davis Mills at the helm in lieu of C.J. Stroud (concussion). Other big injury news for this one, as receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) didn't practice Wednesday, nor did guard Ezra Cleveland and tight end Hunter Long. If Dyami Brown (concussion) doesn't clear the protocol by Sunday, the Jaguars offense could be without their top two tight ends and top three receivers (Travis Hunter on IR with a knee).

Jakobi Meyers, acquired via trade on Tuesday, will help eventually -- but the Week 1 impact should be minimal.

On the Houston side, no Stroud likely spells a recommitment to the running game, which will speed up this game. That rushing attack will likely suffer as well, with absences at right guard (Ed Ingram) and right tackle (Tytus Howard), along with the uncertain status of running back Nick Chubb (foot). The Jaguars' defense gave up a concerning performance to the Raiders' passing attack in the second half, but that was without linebacker Devin Lloyd (expected back this week) and EDGE Travon Walker (ejected for throwing a punch). Also of injury note: Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn is confirmed out because of a quad injury, meaning even three-point drives are less automatic in Houston, as free agent Matthew Wright steps up to the kicking tee.

The Texans are an astonishing 17-4 to the under in home games with coach DeMeco Ryans, and the defense should deliver an even more passionate performance while protecting a backup quarterback. It's a low total, but not low enough to pass on.

Two team, 6-point teaser (-110): Buffalo Bills -3.5 at Miami Dolphins and Bears +2.5 vs. Giants

Bowen: In their first meeting of the season back in Week 3, Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 78.6% of his passes, throwing for three scores. And the Bills were both efficient and explosive running the ball. Let's take this spread down to -3.5 points here versus a 2-7 Miami team that looked disinterested at times in the Week 9 blowout loss to Baltimore.

On the other end, Ben Johnson's offense has found some juice with its rushing attack, as the Bears are averaging 144.4 yards per game on the ground (second most in the league). That works versus a Giants defense allowing a league-worst 5.5 YPC. Yes, Caleb Williams still needs to develop a stronger sense of timing as a thrower while delivering the ball with more precise location. But Johnson can still set up Williams with explosive-play opportunities in the pass game. Let's bump this spread up to +2.5 points. The Bears cover on Sunday at Soldier Field.

Seth Walder's defensive props

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Why Tatum Bethune is a top-15 fantasy LB going into Week 10

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Prop bets will be added as odds become available.

Offensive player props

Josh Allen to score Anytime TD (-105), go OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-120)

Bowen: Allen has rushed for two touchdowns in back-to-back games, so let's bet on the quarterback to find the end zone as a runner for the third straight game. Whether that is a designed carry or a second-reaction scramble attempt, keep an eye on Allen when the Bills move the ball into the low red zone area of the field at Miami.

Let's stay with Allen and take the rushing over as well. Allen has at least six carries in four of his past five games and has rushed for more than 30 yards in five games this season. This seems like a game Allen takes over.

Tyler Shough to go UNDER 0.5 INTs (+135), UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (Even)

Walder: We have so little data on Shough in the pros that we're more or less flying blind on what kind of quarterback we ought to expect him to be. But the model assumes, until it learns otherwise, that anyone without much data is a solidly below-average player -- and so it treats Shough as if he has a high interception rate. And yet it sees +160 on the under as a value; the model makes the fair price +115. Why the difference? Perhaps the market thinks Shough is an extreme interception risk as opposed to just a high one. But there are two other factors working in our favor. First, the opponent: The Saints are playing the Panthers and are only 5.5-point underdogs, which means fewer game script issues and desperate passing situations are expected than the Saints would have against a better team. Second, New Orleans is a run-first team. The Saints have a negative-7% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Put it all together, and a Shough interception is far from a lock.

I'm doubling up Shough unders, and it's for some of the same reasons. Most notably, the fact that the Saints have a negative pass rate over expectation. That means that given the game context -- such as score, down and distance, and clock -- the Saints run the ball more than the average team. Here's something else: The Panthers are even more run heavy, with a negative-10% pass rate over expectation that is lowest in the league. That means both teams will be churning the clock (at least relative to expectation) when they have the ball, helping our unders. My model prices this attempts prop at -167.

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Why Field Yates sees Jaxson Dart as a top fantasy QB in Week 10

Field Yates explains why Jaxson Dart has one the highest fantasy quarterback outlooks in Week 10 against the Bears.

Jaxson Dart to go OVER 210.5 passing yards (-115)

Bowen: Dart has thrown for over 220 yards in only one game this season. But this is more about a Bears secondary that is down numbers because of injuries, and this unit looked a step slow on the tape last week versus the Bengals. Dart can make enough throws outside of structure to hit the over here.

Caleb Williams to go OVER 19.5 rushing yards (+115)

Bowen: Williams rushed for 53 yards in the Week 9 win over Cincy, and he has had at least 24 yards on the ground in his past two games. Williams is more than willing to eject from the pocket, extending plays as a runner. With the Giants' edge rushers, look for Williams to pull the ball down and move on Sunday.

Bijan Robinson to go OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Solak: This feels like a smash week for Robinson through the air. The Falcons are expected to play without starting left guard Matthew Bergeron, who left last Week's game against the Patriots because of an ankle injury, and right guard Chris Lindstrom is day-to-day because of a foot injury. The strength of this Colts defense is its defensive line, especially on the interior (though DeForest Buckner has been ruled out of this game already). The weakness of the defense, especially now that Sauce Gardner has been acquired, is the linebackers in space. Perfect for a Robinson receiving day.

As such, the Colts seem like a similar defensive proposition as the Patriots were last week, when Robinson had 10 targets, five of which came in the first quarter. Even if Robinson doesn't have as much designed early-game receiving usage, the Falcons are 6.5-point underdogs, which creates an advantageous game script for RB checkdowns.

This is an early island game, so it's worth keeping an eye on live lines. If Robinson has a quiet first two drives as a runner and the Colts get a first-quarter lead, I'll look to reinvest in this number and potentially look at receptions lines as well.

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Why managers can start Jaylen Waddle with confidence in Week 10

Daniel Dopp breaks down Jaylen Waddle's consistent performance and confidence against the Bills in Week 10.

Jaylen Waddle to go OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bowen: Waddle has at least 80 yards receiving in four of his past five games, and he's seeing steady volume, with an average of seven targets per game during this stretch. Explosive after the catch, Waddle can pick up numbers in a hurry, and I think Miami will be chasing points versus Buffalo.

Davante Adams to go OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bowen: In Week 5 versus the 49ers, Adams saw 11 targets, finishing with 88 yards receiving. And with at least seven targets in four straight games, we can bet on Adams seeing positive volume. Plus, quarterback Matthew Stafford is on a heater right now. He's driving the ball. Let's take Adams to hit the over in San Francisco.

Darnell Mooney to record 60+ receiving yards (+375)

Walder: Have we had success with these alternative receiving yards props? Absolutely not. Am I going to keep going, through either a display of perseverance or stupidity? I am.

Mooney's route profile fits the type of player we generally target for these medium or long shot bets. He has a 51% vertical route rate that ranks seventh highest among wide receivers and an average of 15.4 air yards per target. On top of that, though, Mooney has had an exceptionally poor catch rate of just 43% this season, fifth worst among that same group. That is way out of line with his career number entering this season (60%), so I think some positive regression could work in our favor here, too.

Justice Hill to go UNDER 15.5 receiving yards (-115)

Solak: In that I like the Ravens to win big, I also like Hill to stay under his receiving yards total. Backs see their receiving usage spike as big underdogs and diminish as big favorites, and if the Ravens are nursing a second-half lead, I don't expect Hill to see any targets. In the past two games, against Chicago (14-point win) and Miami (22-point win), Hill has run only six and seven routes, respectively. Hill also gets low route usage because he's such a strong back in pass protection. The Vikings, who blitz at one of the heaviest rates in football, often keep the opposing back in the formation by sending extra rushers, for whom the back is responsible. Hill could always burn us with one screen, but if this game follows the expected script, 14.5 is simply too high of a number for his route participation and target depth.

Jaylen Warren to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-125)

Walder: The Chargers have overtaken the Cowboys as the most zone-heavy team in the NFL. And so they have become our new target for running back reception props. Leaguewide since 2023, running backs catch passes on 8% of plays against man coverage but on 15% of plays against zone coverage -- almost double the rate! So we're backing Warren against the Chargers under the premise that the market hasn't fully baked in the man-zone splits for running backs.

Colston Loveland to score Anytime TD (+250)

Bowen: Loveland scored two touchdowns last week in the win over the Bengals, and he has seen an end zone target in back-to-back games. With Loveland's ability to flex from the formation -- aligning to the backside of 3x1 sets -- Johnson can scheme up his rookie tight end in red zone isolation matchups versus the Giants.

Tyler Warren to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bowen: Warren caught five passes in the Week 9 loss to the Steelers, but he totaled just 26 yards receiving. However, Warren has topped the 50-yard receiving mark in four of his past six games, and the Colts can scheme to get the rookie tight end loose on movement concepts (boot/play-action). Yes, the Falcons' defense has really good numbers versus tight ends this season, but I'm betting on Warren's rugged catch-and-run ability on Sunday in Berlin.