Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior WriterDec 5, 2024, 09:20 AM ET
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
On Friday, the Golden State Valkyries will introduce the first players in franchise history, added via the expansion draft (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
After projecting which six players the existing 12 WNBA teams might choose to protect, and explaining which players aren't eligible for the expansion draft, now it's time to break down who Golden State might end up drafting on Friday -- with a twist.
As in the real expansion draft, we're including trades where teams either get the Valkyries not to select some of their most talented players left unprotected or to choose a particular player. Those deals could be a mechanism for Golden State to add extra picks on top of the No. 5 selection in next April's WNBA draft, plus choices in the second and third round.
I'll be using my versions of protected lists as a starting point for the Valkyries, who can choose one unprotected player from every team. And, as in Friday's expansion draft, I'll have one spot to use on an unrestricted free agent that Golden State can choose to make its core player when free agency opens.
Keeping those ground rules in mind, let's get to the picks.
Atlanta Dream: Haley Jones, F/G
If Jones is unprotected, bringing her back to the Bay Area would be a natural choice for the Valkyries. The San Jose native starred at Stanford, winning a national title, and her versatility fits well on an expansion team. At 6-foot-1, Jones can defend frontcourt players but also served as Atlanta's point guard much of last season. She has two years remaining on her rookie contract as the No. 6 pick of the 2023 draft.
Chicago Sky: Lindsay Allen, G
The Sky were the fifth stop in Allen's seven-season WNBA career, so she'd bring a veteran perspective to the Valkyries' locker room. Having started 48 games at point guard over the past two seasons, Allen would compete for that position in Golden State. Iffy outside shooting (26.5% career on 3-pointers) limits Allen's upside, but she can capably run an offense.
Connecticut Sun: Olivia Nelson-Ododa, C
The Valkyries' choice here likely comes down to which player Connecticut left unprotected: Nelson-Ododa or guard Veronica Burton. Both players were part of the Sun's playoff rotation. Nelson-Ododa particularly stood out during 2023, when she averaged a career-high 15.0 MPG after starting center Brionna Jones suffered an Achilles rupture. Nelson-Ododa averaged 10.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes, suggesting she could be more productive in a larger role on an expansion team.
Dallas Wings: Awak Kuier, F/C
Depending on which players they choose to protect, the Wings could offer a variety of interesting options for Golden State, including recent first-round picks Lou Lopez Senechal and Stephanie Soares and productive center Kalani Brown. Still, I lean toward Kuier, who would bring exclusive negotiating rights after sitting out the final season of her rookie contract. The second overall pick in 2021 won't turn 24 until next August and has become a quality EuroLeague contributor, averaging 16.3 PPG so far this season for Umana Reyer Venezia.
Indiana Fever: Katie Lou Samuelson, F
Trade: Fever send 2026 first-round pick to Golden State in exchange for Valkyries' 2026 second-round pick and agreement to take Samuelson
Here's our first deal of the mock draft, and it's an interesting one. Indiana might be the most motivated team to get the Valkyries to take a particular player. Samuelson fell out of the Fever's starting five after shooting just 35% from the field last season, and she's under guaranteed contract for a team-high $180,250 in 2025, per HerHoopStats.com salary data. Moving that salary would give Indiana massive cap space to build around Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark.
From Golden State's standpoint, there's little downside. The Valkyries could waive Samuelson and wipe her salary from their cap, meaning they'd effectively buy their way up in next year's draft -- albeit potentially only a few picks -- using cash. Alternatively, Golden State could keep Samuelson and hope she bounces back another year removed from giving birth in August 2023.
Las Vegas Aces: Kierstan Bell, F
Trade: Golden State sends Bell to Atlanta in exchange for rights to G/F Isabel Borlase
In addition to making trades before the draft, the Valkyries also have the ability to deal the players they select. In this case, we're reuniting Bell with new Dream coach Karl Smesko, who coached her at Florida Gulf Coast before leaving for Atlanta last month. In return, Golden State gets the rights to Borlase, a 2024 second-round pick who is playing in the WNBL in her native Australia and was among my protected players for the Dream.
Los Angeles Sparks: Aari McDonald, G (RFA)
The No. 3 draft pick in 2021 after leading Arizona to the national title game, McDonald hasn't been able to build on averaging 11.1 PPG in 2022, her second WNBA campaign. In part because of injuries, McDonald has seen her playing time decline the last two seasons. The Valkyries would be betting on her getting healthy and re-signing at a reasonable price as a restricted free agent. McDonald is younger than the veterans the Sparks might leave unprotected, most notably Stephanie Talbot, and less of an availability question mark than center Li Yueru, who must juggle the WNBA with commitments to the Chinese national team.
Minnesota Lynx: Alissa Pili, PF
Trade: Lynx send the No. 15 pick of the 2025 WNBA draft to Golden State in exchange for agreement to not select Dorka Juhasz and Jessica Shepard
The problem for Minnesota is the team has seven players worth protecting and six spots. I chose Diamond Miller, the No. 2 pick in 2023, over Juhasz despite the latter's key rotation role in the playoffs. The Lynx could assure keeping both -- plus Shepard, who sat out last season but could return in 2025 -- by striking a deal with the Valkyries. In this case, Golden State gets its pick of Minnesota's other protected players, taking Pili in the hopes she can be as productive as she was in college at Utah. The No. 8 pick played sparingly as a rookie, averaging 2.4 PPG and 1.2 RPG, on a Lynx team that came within a shot of the title.
New York Liberty: Kaitlyn Davis, F
Trade: Liberty send the No. 7 pick of the 2025 WNBA draft to Golden State in exchange for the No. 17 pick and agreement to select Davis
As I explained in breaking down the protected lists, the defending champs are the most motivated team to make a trade with the Valkyries because of their deep roster combined with rights to a variety of players who did not play in the WNBA last season. If I'm Golden State, I'm asking for this year's No. 7 pick, which would give the Valkyries two of the top-seven selections to begin adding young talent.
In return, New York gets back into this year's second round and gets to choose which player the Valkyries take. Davis, a third-round pick in the 2024 draft, would be expendable because the Liberty must cut down the number of players whose rights they hold by the end of the calendar year.
Phoenix Mercury: Celeste Taylor, G
A second-round pick out of Ohio State in April, Taylor played for three different teams during her rookie season before landing in Phoenix for the stretch run and playoffs. She even started four games for the Mercury, making her an attractive option for an expansion team.
Seattle Storm: Mackenzie Holmes, F/C
Barring a surprise, Golden State will be choosing between Holmes -- drafted by Seattle in the third round before sitting out the season to undergo knee surgery -- and second-round pick Nika Muhl. Holmes was chosen for the AP All-America first team in 2022-23 at Indiana, averaging 22.3 PPG and 7.3 RPG, and would have a chance to make the Valkyries' roster in training camp.
Washington Mystics: Elena Delle Donne, F (UFA)
We've saved the biggest name for last. Drafting Delle Donne and using the core designation on her would be a huge splash for Golden State -- albeit one that might not pay off. It's unclear whether the two-time MVP wants to continue playing after sitting out the 2024 season, or if she is physically capable of doing so, which could lead the Mystics to leave her unprotected in favor of surer possibilities. But the Valkyries could also use Delle Donne's rights to trade her to a desired destination, netting draft picks in the process. As long as Delle Donne wants to play, teams will be interested in having her.
Here's how Golden State's roster (nine players) would look coming out of this mock expansion draft:
PG Aari McDonald (RFA)
PG Lindsay Allen
SG Celeste Taylor
SF Katie Lou Samuelson
PF Elena Delle Donne (UFA)
PF Alissa Pili
F/G Haley Jones
F/C Awak Kuier
C Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Draft rights:
G/F Isabel Borlase
F Kaitlyn Davis
F Mackenzie Holmes
2025 draft picks:
No. 5
No. 7
No. 15
No. 30
2026 draft picks:
GSV first round
IND first round
GSV third round