State of the Group of 5: The challenges facing smaller conferences

JERRY KILL KNEW when he took the head coaching job at New Mexico State in 2022 that the program was strapped for cash, but it wasn't until a few weeks into his tenure that he really understood the severity of the budget shortfall.

That's when they came for his coffee.

The budget was so tight, the school threatened removal of free coffee in the coaches' offices, which, for Kill, was a bridge too far.

"That didn't last too long," said Kill, who left New Mexico State after 2023 for a role at Vanderbilt. "I'm going to drink coffee."

These are perilous times for schools outside the Power 4 -- the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC -- and behind every major concern lies the same root cause: money. In addition to New Mexico State's great coffee revolt, smaller schools across the country are facing increasingly difficult choices in how to fund athletic budgets in the new era of college football where cash is king.

An incomplete list of potentially existential threats to schools in the Group of 5: realignment, revenue sharing, increased scholarships, the transfer portal, an autonomy conference breakaway, playoff access, control over NCAA governance, consolidation by the newly revived Pac-12 and, apparently, coffee.

Even for the best of the bunch, Boise State, there's little room for comfort, despite being the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff. Head coach Spencer Danielson lamented the fact that more than a dozen of his current players -- guys set to participate in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl -- are being actively recruited into the portal by Power 4 schools.

"The more you win, it makes it easier for every other school to recruit your roster," Danielson said. "That's a constant battle."

Just three years ago, Cincinnati became the sport's most successful underdog story of the modern era by forcing its way into the four-team College Football playoff. It did so with a roster of NFL prospects, like Desmond Ridder and Sauce Gardner. But now, even former Bearcats coach Luke Fickell doesn't think it's possible to build a team that good without the resources and cache of a power conference affiliation.

"It's not happening [now]," Fickell said, "and either you can bang your head against the wall or kind of embrace it."

The landscape is changing quickly, and with each new step in the process, the foundation for the Group of 5 becomes less secure.

Add it all up, and from the cream of the crop at Boise State to the bottom of the financial barrel at New Mexico State, the challenges for the teams outside the power conferences are bigger than ever.

JUST ONE ROUND of the 12-team playoff model is in the books, and structural changes are already being debated. The current deal expires after next season, and odds are, the next iteration won't be as kind to the Group of 5.

At the very least, there are likely to be tweaks to seeding rules, which currently guarantee the top four slots to the four highest ranked conference champs, which included Boise State this year. Without that guarantee, the Broncos would've likely had to play on the opening weekend and, quite possibly, on the road.

More concerning, however, is the potential for the Group of 5 to lose its guaranteed bid entirely. Multiple Power 4 athletic directors who spoke to ESPN suggested the industry was leaving money on the table by handing a playoff spot to a program that was unlikely to draw viewership or even play a competitive game.

"There's a gap between us and them," Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. "There's always been a gap. It's gotten wider, but as long as this expanded CFP has access, it doesn't matter what brand or conference you're from, that's what makes us relevant and allows us to compete."

In other words, protecting that automatic bid is paramount, and that puts the onus on Boise State to perform well against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl.

A loss -- especially a lopsided one -- will only throw gasoline onto a fire already burning hot, as criticism mounts over postseason blowouts and whether there's real value in assuring top seeding or even basic access for the have-nots.

Multiple ADs who spoke with ESPN noted the increasing disparity in talent between the Group of 5 and the power conferences, and they pointed out that what recently had been the best programs outside the power conferences -- Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and UCF -- are now in the Power 4.

And the numbers tell a blunt story.

While the 2024 season has had its share of upsets -- Northern Illinois toppling Notre Dame, Memphis upending Florida State, James Madison steamrolling North Carolina -- teams outside the Power 4 (minus Notre Dame) finished the regular season 9-88 against the power schools.

So while the Broncos can make a run at a national championship and the occasional upset can still happen, more often Cinderella will arrive at the ball to find the gates to the castle are already locked.

American Athletic Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti said he's not worried, but he also suggested any attempt to keep Group of 5 teams out of the playoff would result in quick antitrust litigation.

But lawsuits aren't the only option for the Group of 5. This past summer, those conferences began discussing the possibility of creating their own playoff -- something Pernetti advocated for as a means to grow revenue.

"There's four [conferences] that are going to get left out of the CFP and will be assigned to whatever bowl tie-in they have," Pernetti said. "There's no guarantee they have something truly meaningful to play for in the postseason. So what's the downside of something new? What's the downside of more meaningful postseason football if it's additive?"

The idea, Pernetti said, would be to create an NIT-style postseason tournament for football featuring the best teams from the Group of 5 -- and potentially the power conferences -- who didn't make the College Football Playoff. A number of Group of 5 coaches said they'd be eager to see this system come to pass, but this, too, illustrates the line of demarcation in today's game.

"I'm not interested in playing in a G5 playoff," San Diego State AD John David Wicker said. "I'm interested in the College Football Playoff."

Boise State's first-round bye guarantees a payout of at least $8 million for the Mountain West, a boon for a league and a school that need every penny to remain competitive.

But the question of financial viability is about more than just cash in hand today. Look no further than SMU, another 2024 College Football Playoff participant, which effectively bought its way into the ACC by agreeing not to take any of the conference's TV money for its first nine seasons in the league, just for the chance to count itself among the Power 4.

Other programs, including Boise State, are working to find their own path to solid ground, even if it means paying an exit fee from the Mountain West to do so.

In the summer of 2023, San Diego State was on the cusp of joining the Power 5 -- "we were item No. 2 on the agenda," Wicker noted -- before the Pac-12 fell apart. The Aztecs, along with Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State, will now join a reconstructed Pac-12 in 2026, with eyes toward regaining "power conference" status. In recent months, UConn has had conversations with the Big 12 about membership, though those talks hit a snag. Assuming the Mountain West or Pac-12 continues the realignment reshuffling, the logistics of the Group of 5 could look entirely different by 2026, when the next iteration of the playoff begins.

The potential consolidation of the best programs currently outside the Power 4 creates another image problem though. Administrators at the bigger schools see a landscape that bears little resemblance to the setting when Cincinnati crashed the playoff party in 2021. The wealthiest Group of 5 schools from 2021 are now mostly in the Power 4, and many others are angling for invites. Everyone else faces such a shortfall of both money and talent that there's no realistic path for them to consistently compete at the highest level.

"You have to think at some point they're going to say, 'Why do we want the G5 to be represented?' Because the money has made every decision," Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell said. "The whole reason they expanded is so the top conferences can get as many of their programs into the tournament. I hope there's a seat at the table, but you have to be realistic with it. Would they rather see us vs. whoever or another SEC team?"

TO PAY FOR the coffee at New Mexico State -- in addition to a new practice field, a football operations center and a nascent NIL collective -- Kill hit the road. He lobbied local legislators. He hobnobbed with potential donors. He spoke at booster events. He spent an inordinate amount of time doing something that had nothing to do with coaching, but everything to do with winning in college football's new era: He asked for money. He even donated $120,000 out of his own pocket to help make the budget work.

"The biggest payout we got was $1.8 million for beating Auburn [in 2023]," Kill noted. "But that went toward the deficit, so we didn't see any of it."

Bronco Mendenhall served as head coach at BYU and Virginia for 18 years, but when he took over at New Mexico in 2024, he said he spent more time fundraising in his first months there than at any of his previous jobs.

Northern Illinois coach Thomas Hammock said it's nearly impossible to fully engage with his team because of all the fundraising demands. He has instituted a schedule in which he spends a sizable chunk of his time from January through June working on raising money, then turns his focus toward coaching from July through the end of the season.

When Pernetti met with his league's coaches after taking the commissioner job last year, the most frequent complaint was the time spent on recruiting and fundraising over coaching and player development.

It's a constant refrain among coaches, but at the Group of 5 level, the needs are existential.

Group of 5 coaches who spoke to ESPN suggested the money needed just to retain the bulk of their starters has grown -- doubled or tripled by some estimates -- in the past year. But even that line on the expense report is probably drastically underestimating the problem. With the House settlement ushering in a new era of revenue sharing, where most Power 4 schools are expected to use upward of $15 million on direct payments to football players, the market is likely to shift heavily again. This time, it's doubtful many Group of 5 schools will be able to ante up with anything comparable to a Power 4 school.

After leading New Mexico to a surprisingly strong 5-7 record in 2024, Mendenhall sat down with a number of his stars to discuss the future. In nearly every case, it was clear there was no way to retain them. The Lobos waved goodbye to their starting quarterback, top receiver, starting tailback and best O-lineman -- all of whom transferred to Power 4 schools. Ultimately, Mendenhall also departed, taking the head coaching job at Utah State. His move was about family, he said -- his sons all live or go to college in Utah -- but there are numerous examples of coaches burned out on the grind of fundraising for the job who just want to get back to coaching players.

Just last year, three head coaches of Group of 5 programs -- South Alabama's Kane Wommack, Georgia State's Shawn Elliott and Buffalo 's Maurice Lindquist -- left for jobs as assistants at Power 4 schools. This offseason, Washington State coach Jake Dickert left what would once have been considered a solid job to take over at struggling Wake Forest.

For Kill, the onus of coaching at the Group of 5 level wasn't the main reason he left New Mexico State after the school's most successful season in a half-century, but it certainly played a part.

"I worked a whole lot of hours along with our staff, and in this era of football, I was going to have to do more next year and the next year," Kill said. "You knew this thing was going to get bigger and bigger, and I said there was no way I could do it."

Not long after he announced his retirement, however, he got a call from Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea with an offer to come aboard as an advisor. No fundraising, no glad-handing -- just program-building and coaching.

"You don't have any time to develop players anymore," Kill said. "If he's good, he's going to leave. If he's not playing, he's going to leave. To build a team at this level, you've got two years."

He took the job, and he's making just shy of what he earned at New Mexico State. Five players, including QB Diego Pavia, also left the Aggies for Vandy.

Even the success stories, such as Boise State's Ashton Jeanty, come with a bit of an asterisk.

"[Jeanty] didn't stay for free," Mendenhall said. "He's praised for staying and that's great, but he didn't stay out of the goodness of his heart. Boise State did all it could to keep him."

The Broncos are one of the few programs at the Group of 5 level that can afford to keep a star. Danielson said his priority is retaining homegrown talent, and Boise State -- while hardly flush with cash -- has donors willing to step up to maintain success at what has been, for the past 20 years, the best program outside the power conferences.

Elsewhere, however, times are tough. In 2005, the average power conference football program generated about $10.9 million in annual revenue, compared with about $4.4 million for the average Group of 5 team. By the 2022-23 academic year, that gap in football revenue had grown to more than $30 million -- a more than four-fold increase. And that was just the tip of the iceberg. Add in a marked difference in cash on hand for their respective collectives and the investment already made in football-related facilities, and the difference might be better measured in light years than dollars.

"The money doesn't just fall out of the air," said Pernetti, who said the American is exploring numerous outside-the-box options to fill the gaps, including selling naming rights for the conference, adding advertising to uniforms and talking with investors in the private equity space. "Conferences have a responsibility more than ever before to figure out new revenue streams."

Pernetti said he's working with AAC schools on setting a minimum required revenue share for athletes with a focus on football, though the details remain fluid.

For many athletic directors at smaller schools, however, there's seemingly no feasible way to come up with the cash to match what bigger schools will spend.

"Everyone is trying to figure out the maximum investment to have success," Pernetti said. "The hard part is, it creates some gaps in what some institutions will do versus others."

Hammock said he's keenly aware which side of the ledger Northern Illinois is on, but he refuses to concede defeat just because he'll be trailing on the balance sheet. Bigger schools can offer money, and that's enticing. But he can offer relationships, growth and development, and he hopes there are still enough players out there eager for those things for NIU to keep pace.

"We're trying to find the right type of people and families that want to have their sons developed," Hammock said. "That still matters to certain people."

That's been the blueprint for Boise State, Danielson said. In an era in which every relationship is at least partially transactional, he has decided the key to success is finding players who appreciate what the Broncos can offer in any deal.

"Do we have what everybody else has? No. But do we have enough? Yes." Danielson said. "There's extremely high expectations here. Embracing those things and pushing forward to grow to where you can be closer. We don't need to find 1,000 recruits that fit Boise State. We need to find 25."

JEANTY FINISHED SECOND in this year's Heisman race, demolished records for rushing and became a household name in college football. He'll get a chance to play on one of the sport's biggest stages in the Fiesta Bowl. He got paid.

That's a pretty sweet deal, Danielson said, and it's one Boise State is unique in being able to offer.

"It's not a pipe dream. You can have it all at Boise State," he said. "Do you want to win the Heisman? Come on. Do you want to make the playoff and get a first-round bye? Come on. It doesn't mean it's easy, but you can do it here, and we have the stats to back it up."

What Danielson hopes will be a winning sales pitch moving forward may also be an exception rather than the rule, and the talent drain from the have-nots up to the haves figures to get worse with added scholarships, reduced roster spots and a ton of new revenue-sharing dollars entering the market.

Last season, 273 players transferred from Group of 5 schools to power conference programs, an average of more than four per program. And unlike at the Power 4 level, where the bulk of outgoing transfers are leaving due to a lack of playing time, the portal departures from the Group of 5 are often stars. Last year, 88 of the players who left Group of 5 schools -- nearly one-third of the total -- had been named to all-conference teams the prior year.

With the settlement in the House case, schools in 2025 can offer up to 105 scholarships for football -- 20 more than in years past -- which makes for even more bleak math for the small schools trying to keep pace. Should all power-conference schools opt for the maximum, that would create nearly 1,400 new scholarships at the Power 4 level -- and a sizable portion of those spots could be filled by players transferring up from the Group of 5.

"What will happen is it'll give them more opportunities to get kids who might be good at this level to go up there and be third-team guys," Chadwell said. "It'll widen that gap even more.... If you didn't have the portal, you could have some success. But it's going to be harder and harder, because you don't have the money to keep your top players, and the bigger schools will have the money and the scholarships."

When Mendenhall first arrived at New Mexico after two years out of coaching, he said he was confident he could bridge the gap between his long-held belief in relationships and development and the new world order created by the transfer portal and NIL.

"I'm having to frame what success might look like in helping young," Mendenhall said before the 2024 season. "That might not be longevity at an institution. It might just be helping them reach a new level in today's market."

And yet, when the season ended and Mendenhall sat down with stars like QB Devin Dampier, he realized he didn't have the cash to keep them, and relationships he thought were strong ended quickly.

That's when things really hit home for Mendenhall.

"The frustration of the relationship built, time spent and a player choosing to leave your program, that still hurts," he said. "That's the main difference I learned this year.... I still love these kids, and I'm thrilled for them now. But as a coach, you can end up becoming cynical. Or you can frame it -- and I hate this idea -- that you're just going to have them for one year."

In the future, he said, he plans to hire for a general manager position who will serve as a financial buffer for the head coach in those situations. It's too hard, he said, to maintain an emotional relationship with players when money gets in the way, so he thinks it's imperative to separate business and development.

Still, said Fickell, it's impossible to completely wall off the coaching relationship from the financial one these days.

"I never wanted to be involved in money with kids because I thought it changed your relationship," Fickell said. "And if I still felt that way, then I wouldn't be able to coach in college football right now."

TO WORK AT one of the sport's have-not programs is to accept a certain amount of adversity with the job, so coaches and ADs at the Group of 5 level are accustomed to searching for silver linings.

The portal works both ways, as Chadwell noted, and that means a host of talented -- if underdeveloped -- players may leave the Power 4 for a chance at more playing time. Without film, a player isn't making it to the NFL, so for all the allure of NIL dollars and a Power 4 pedigree, ultimately everyone prizes playing time.

Pernetti said the House settlement could also potentially open the door to multiyear contracts that would keep players in the fold longer, though the details on how that could work remain vague.

And some schools like Boise State have been able to parlay success on the field with strong fan enthusiasm to at least build an NIL collective strong enough to compete with bigger brands when it comes to retaining talent.

But there was a moment during last year's Mountain West league meetings, Mendenhall said, that clarified the status of schools outside the Power 4 hierarchy. Administrators were discussing the House settlement and other changes coming to college football, debating how his conference could respond.

Mendenhall threw up his hands. What was the point in even debating strategy when it wouldn't be the Group of 5 coaches or athletic directors making the decisions?

"We don't decide," Mendenhall said. "We adjust and adapt and react to what's decided for us."

And yet, Danielson and the Broncos are still eager to ante up. It's a program, he said, "born with a chip on its shoulder," and winning against long odds is the only way he knows how to do it.

Maybe there isn't a foolproof blueprint to do more with less these days, but Danielson said there's a path to success for programs with a clear vision and the right approach. The Broncos won't win every battle. They just need to win enough.

"I believe, if you want to be developed on and off the field, for the NFL or for professional life, there's not a better place than Boise State," he said. "Does that mean we'll never lose a player? No. But you'll keep the right ones."