Six things I wish I'd known when I drafted

No matter how much time we dedicate to our draft preparation, there's no such thing as being perfectly prepared.

Baseball's treasure trove of analytics means there's always a rabbit hole to go down while evaluating players. It also means that no matter how comprehensive we are, we cannot possibly unearth every tidbit about a player that could lead to a brilliant draft-day pick. As it is, things change every day over the six months of an MLB season and there are simply some developments -- often mechanical tweaks, role changes or injury insights -- that we won't be able to notice until the games begin to count.

Sure, there were some things we did know in March: Carlos Estevez's velocity was markedly down. Ben Rice was developing into one of the game's most underrated hitters. Yordan Alvarez was looking plenty healthy, to the point of even being capable of logging time in the outfield.

However, there were a lot of takeaways we couldn't possibly have perceived at the time. The season's opening weeks might represent only a tiny fraction of the season's returns, but they can also unearth hidden gems that will make or break a fantasy season. Our aim now is to use this new data to improve our teams, either via pickup or trade if the opportunity presents itself in our leagues.

Andy Pages is turning into a star

While Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Freddie Freeman steal the headlines, Pages is the player who is quietly turning into a future franchise cornerstone for the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old, who went 4-for-51 (.078 BA) during the 2025 postseason, spent extended time working in the Dodgers' hitting lab throughout spring training, and the results over the first two weeks have been astounding.

Pages is swinging at fewer non-strikes (a 4%-plus drop in his chase rate) and generating hard contact more than half the time (54.8%), resulting in leading the majors in batting average (.474) currently. He was an easy player to forget on draft day because of his low-in-the-lineup spot on a team with enormous offensive depth, but he's quickly becoming a player who can deliver top-quality fantasy production, regardless.

Trevor Rogers is regression-proof

The left-hander's career rejuvenation has been nothing short of extraordinary, beginning with being an emergency rotation fill-in last June and resulting in him now having allowing no more than two runs in 18 of his 20 starts since. But, due largely to a gap of more than 1.5 runs between his ERA and expected ERA last season, Rogers graced a lot of "bust lists" entering the season.

Since spring training dawned, however, he has looked every bit as sharp as he did across the final three-plus months of 2025, locating his four-seamer and changeup with precision while doing an excellent job of inducing grounders and weak contact. Some pitchers possess good enough command that they can regularly outpitch their peripherals, so who's to say Rogers can't again post an ERA more than a run below what's expected?

Nico Hoerner is squaring the ball up more

While everyone focuses on his $141 million extension, let's home in on what Hoerner has been doing at the plate that might make him a top-20 fantasy scorer in 2026. Hoerner's adjusted approach at the plate -- one that would have been more difficult to notice during spring training -- has him chasing fewer non-strikes (a 26.6% rate, down from 32.5% in 2025), targeting pitches on the inner third and getting more lift on the ball (a 25.0% GB rate, down from 44.9%).

While it's a small sample size, the change appears likely to improve his on-base percentage, boosting his number of stolen base opportunities, as well as providing a boost to his doubles total -- all things we love in fantasy points leagues. By the way, Hoerner was already a 400-point scorer last season and a top-50 overall player. A 35-double, 65-walk, 35-steal season would push him closer to the elite 500-point level.

Emerson Hancock is a lot closer in talent to the Seattle Mariners' other young starters

The Mariners got at least 6.5 WAR out of four members of their rotation from 2023 to 2025 and 3.8 from Bryce Miller, but then there was Hancock, who had a 4.81 ERA and MLB's sixth-worst strikeout rate (15.6%) over that time (minimum 160 innings). A forgettable fill-in then, the right-hander has now performed admirably in Miller's place, fanning 14 out of 43 batters while allowing just one run in 12⅔ innings.

More importantly, Hancock's success has been the product of a reworked pitch repertoire, leaning most heavily upon a higher-spin fastball and sweeper while largely shelving what had been an unimpressive changeup. Such changes matter, and this version of Hancock might deliver seasonal value somewhere in between what we've come to expect from George Kirby and Miller.

The cluttered Boston Red Sox outfield is going to present a playing-time problem

It's a troubling development when Jarren Duran, the team's leader in WAR (13.7) over the past two seasons, has already been held out of the starting lineup against a right-handed pitcher more often than he did in the entirety of 2025 -- and his one such absence last season came the day after the team clinched its playoff spot. A good share of Duran's fantasy value in 2024-25 came from volume -- he was the league leader in plate appearances in those two seasons.

Boston's inability to move any of its outfield depth to shore up other areas is going to have an adverse impact upon his fantasy value, as well as that of Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. I'd have suspected Duran might sit against all lefty starters and didn't like that. Still, even if he's part of a four-man rotation at the three outfield spots and DH -- and remember that Triston Casas could return to steal DH time at some point this summer -- that's an obstacle to a bounce-back year for him.

The back of the Cleveland Guardians' rotation isn't just a bunch of dart-throws

Because of Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Parker Messick, the Guardians might have themselves baseball's most under-the-radar-great rotation. Messick has good control and a potentially elite changeup, Cecconi's increased cutter and sweeper usage should help boost his swing-and-miss potential, and Cantillo's stuff might be the best of the three -- if he can merely improve his control. All three pitchers look like they have legitimate staying power in the Guardians rotation, and at a greater level than merely "picking and choosing" from their individual matchups. These would be the pitchers I'd try to find space to stash until each catches fire.