ESPN Fantasy
Mar 13, 2025, 07:47 AM ET
With spring training action in full swing, most fantasy baseball leagues are getting ready to hold their drafts. How much of an influence should what we're seeing on the fields of Florida and Arizona have on our personal draft lists?
Most of what happens during the spring, statistically speaking, can usually be dismissed. After all, just because a guy like Kyle Stowers belted an MLB-leading seven homers in 2024 before the games officially counted, that didn't mean he was going to get even close to that total over the subsequent 162-game regular season schedule. Yes, Trayce Thompson, that means we're looking at your 2025 spring success with a wary eye, too.
With that in mind, we asked our quartet of fantasy experts -- Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Todd Zola and Derek Carty -- to highlight one thing they've noticed on the field this spring that actually might carry over into April and beyond.
As we get ever so close to the start of the 2025 season, what is one thing that you have seen this spring that has changed your opinion about a particular player or team, either for the better or for the worse?
Karabell: I'll admit I didn't know much about Tampa Bay Rays OF prospect Chandler Simpson and his gaudy stolen base figures in the minors, and after being burned by St. Louis Cardinals OF Victor Scott II last April (and by Esteury Ruiz previously), one would think I would ignore this situation. Well, I can't.
Fellows with the potential to lead the league in stolen bases cannot be overlooked. Simpson has impressed this spring, not only in his extreme contact (no walks, no Ks!) and running, but also in his solid center field defense. Jonny DeLuca, presumably the starting center fielder, hasn't hit -- and he may not hit. That's why I'm investing in Simpson (and probably Scott, too) in normal-sized leagues and "expecting" at least 40 steals!
Cockcroft: Sandy Alcantara's four-seam fastball and sinker velocities are both up more than a half-mph compared to 2022-23, and he's whiffing 4% more hitters than he did in those seasons. The Miami Marlins declared him their Opening Day starter at the onset of spring training, which was a confidence play that signaled to me he won't face much of an innings cap (if any) as the team looks to showcase him for in-season trades. (Hello, New York teams!)
Alcantara, who at age 29 hardly requires workload management, began the offseason just outside my top-75 starters, with uncertainty about how sharp his stuff or how generous his role might be post-surgery. Now, I'm no less confident in him in either regard than, say, Carlos Rodon, Grayson Rodriguez or Kodai Senga, who are all within my SP top 45.
Zola: Chapter 17 of the "So-Called Experts Handbook" talks about spring stats and how they are mostly meaningless. A recent addendum shows that the amount of a team's stolen base attempts in the spring correlates well with how often the team will run in the regular season.
Surprisingly, the New York Yankees rank eighth in steals during this year's exhibition season. This bodes well for Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez, among others.
It's not a shock to see teams like the Milwaukee Brewers (first) and the Washington Nationals (fifth) sitting near the top of the SB count. However, it is interesting to note that the Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners are all in the top six. Look for players on those teams to perhaps get more steals than initially projected.
Also of note is the Cincinnati Reds, now with Terry Francona at the helm. Of course, we know Elly De La Cruz will run, but be aware that Francona has generally given the green light to the guys who can be successful at least 75% of the time. Currently sitting at No. 4 in spring training steals, the new manager's old tendencies will likely be on display in 2025.
Carty: Prior to 2024, my projection system (THE BAT) ranked Roki Sasaki as one of the top-five pitchers in the world. During the course of last season, however, his strikeout rate dropped to 27% and his fastball decreased by 2 mph, leading my system to project him as being merely "closer to above-average than great" for 2025 -- one of the least-optimistic outlooks on Sasaki I've seen.
However, in his first spring training start, his fastball velocity was nearly back to its 2023 level. Of course, we're talking about an outing of only 46 pitches, so we don't know if he can sustain that velocity over a full game or full season, but he also has a few more weeks to continue building up strength. I'm taking this as a good sign for Sasaki and will be treating him as being better than the pessimistic projection believes.
