Bill ConnellyFeb 24, 2025, 09:00 AM ET
- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
The lengthy 2024 season has been over for more than a month, the transfer portal has settled down for now, and we're waiting to find out if the sport's powers-that-be are going to change the format of the College Football Playoff for 2025 and beyond.
It seems like as good a time as any to start talking about who might actually be good in 2025!
Early each offseason, I spit out initial SP+ projections, based on a forever-changing combination of returning production, recruiting and recent history. As always, those projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And who returns from last year's roster?
SP+ projections are still a few days away, but let's deal with that last question first. Who returns a majority of last year's production? Who has done the best job of importing production from another team? Who is starting from scratch?
For a few years now, I've been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers. But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement or regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can tell us a lot. And in 2025, they tell us a lot about the state of college football.
Looking through the prism of returning production data of every FBS team, we'll break down how the percentage of returning players is trending, what the numbers mean for your favorite team and which teams can expect to improve and which could regress in 2025.
Jump to a section:
Percentages | Transfers
Returning trends | What numbers mean
Likely to improve | Likely to regress
