Seth Walder, ESPN AnalyticsDec 18, 2024, 06:25 AM ET
With three weeks left in the 2024 regular season, the NFL playoff picture is unusually settled. Seven teams have clinched postseason berths -- three in the NFC and four in the AFC -- leaving seven spots up for grabs.
Which teams will fill those spots? Based on 10,000 simulations using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate the finish to the season, there were 4,393 unique combinations of playoff teams and seeds. The focus below, however, is on one specific scenario: chalk.
The ESPN FPI model produced the precise set of teams and seeds most likely to occur. This scenario isn't all that likely as the exact seeds for the 14 teams below occurred in 73 simulations. That's less than 1% but is more likely than any other combination. Individually, the AFC seeds below have an 11% chance to occur, and the NFC seeds have a 6% chance.
From the set of simulations that yielded the chalk playoff field, I chose one at random to show how it all played out -- in the regular season and beyond. When I did this exercise a year ago, the simulation correctly identified the participants and result for both conference championship games and the Super Bowl.
Can this scenario match that? Welcome to simulation No. 812. This is how the rest of the 2024 NFL season could unfold:
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Scores projections by week: 16 | 17 | 18
Final standings: AFC | NFC
The playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LIX?
Projected Week 16 scores
DEN-LAC: Chargers 22, Broncos 20
HOU-KC: Chiefs 28, Texans 24
PIT-BAL: Steelers 30, Ravens 24
NYG-ATL: Falcons 33, Giants 30
NE-BUF: Bills 19, Patriots 8
DET-CHI: Lions 28, Bears 22
CLE-CIN: Browns 33, Bengals 30
TEN-IND: Colts 24, Titans 9
LAR-NYJ: Jets 16, Rams 13
PHI-WSH: Commanders 20, Eagles 17
ARI-CAR: Panthers 17, Cardinals 16
MIN-SEA: Seahawks 30, Vikings 20
JAX-LV: Jaguars 24, Raiders 16
SF-MIA: 49ers 24, Dolphins 14
TB-DAL: Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 14
NO-GB: Packers 27, Saints 24
What happened: The most crucial result in Week 16 came in the AFC North rivalry game between the Steelers and Ravens. Fresh off a loss to the Eagles, Pittsburgh got off the mat and took down Baltimore. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson once again created explosive plays downfield, locking up the AFC North for Pittsburgh and relegating the Ravens to a wild-card berth.
In a battle between likely AFC wild-card teams, the Chargers narrowly topped the Broncos, giving Los Angeles the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver. That could prove crucial in avoiding the Bills (or Chiefs) in the playoffs.
Elsewhere, the Commanders complicated the Eagles' quest for the NFC's No. 1 seed. That was part of a banner week for the Lions, who strengthened their hold on the top spot with a win over the Bears and the Vikings getting upset by the Seahawks. Seattle's win, coupled with a Rams loss to the Jets, put the Seahawks back in first place in the NFC West. Two more weeks to go.
Projected Week 17 scores
KC-PIT: Steelers 20, Chiefs 17
BAL-HOU: Texans 34, Ravens 14
SEA-CHI: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
NYJ-BUF: Bills 25, Jets 24
GB-MIN: Vikings 24, Packers 16
LV-NO: Raiders 24, Saints 7
CAR-TB: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 3
TEN-JAX: Jaguars 27, Titans 14
DAL-PHI: Cowboys 17, Eagles 10
DEN-CIN: Broncos 34, Bengals 20
ARI-LAR: Rams 17, Cardinals 10
LAC-NE: Patriots 45, Chargers 14
IND-NYG: Giants 31, Colts 14
ATL-WSH: Falcons 26, Commanders 15
MIA-CLE: Dolphins 21, Browns 13
DET-SF: Lions 38, 49ers 31
What happened: The Chiefs put their hold on the AFC's No. 1 seed at risk, losing to the Steelers while the Bills (barely) took care of business against the Jets. That put Buffalo within one game of Kansas City with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, meaning the Bills could snag the top seed in Week 18 with a win over the Patriots and a Kansas City loss to the Broncos.
The Falcons, led by new starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., upset the Commanders to keep the pressure on the Buccaneers in the NFC South, but Tampa Bay responded with a dismantling of the Panthers.
And the Rams and Seahawks both won by a touchdown over the Cardinals and Bears, respectively, setting up a Week 18 showdown at SoFi Stadium for the NFC West crown.
Projected Week 18 scores
CAR-ATL: Panthers 31, Falcons 10
WSH-DAL: Commanders 27, Cowboys 24
KC-DEN: Chiefs 33, Broncos 27
MIN-DET: Lions 30, Vikings 21
CHI-GB: Packers 10, Bears 3
HOU-TEN: Titans 31, Texans 28
JAX-IND: Jaguars 20, Colts 9
LAC-LV: Chargers 34, Raiders 20
SEA-LAR: Rams 16, Seahawks 7
BUF-NE: Bills 45, Patriots 15
MIA-NYJ: Dolphins 30, Jets 17
NYG-PHI: Eagles 34, Giants 17
SF-ARI: 49ers 19, Cardinals 10
CIN-PIT: Bengals 23, Steelers 7
NO-TB: Buccaneers 27, Saints 13
CLE-BAL: Ravens 36, Browns 10
What happened: The Chiefs held on to the No. 1 seed ... by a thread. With the Bills obliterating the Patriots 45-15, Kansas City needed to beat Denver. It came down to the wire, with the ball in Bo Nix's hand down six points on the final drive. But the Chiefs got the stop they needed, holding on for a win to earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
The Bucs clinched the NFC South for the fourth season in a row, cruising to a victory over the Saints. They didn't need to win to capture the division title, though, as the Falcons lost to the Panthers in a surprise blowout to end Atlanta's playoff hopes.
In the battle for the NFC West title and the only playoff spot out of the division, the Rams beat the Seahawks in a defensive struggle. Los Angeles became the first team in NFL history to reach the postseason in back-to-back years despite being three games under .500 at one point, per ESPN Research.
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Projecting the AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
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8. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11)
12. New York Jets (5-12)
13. Tennessee Titans (4-13)
14. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
15. New England Patriots (4-13)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Chiefs hang on to No. 1 seed: Kansas City weathered the storm of a Patrick Mahomes ankle injury, a loss to the Steelers and a red-hot Bills team just behind them to clinch that crucial No. 1 seed. It turned out it took every one of those wild Chiefs finishes -- from Isaiah Likely's toe being barely out of bounds in Week 1 to the blocked field goal attempt against the Broncos in Week 10 to Aidan O'Connell's fumble in the final seconds on Black Friday -- to get that top spot.
Ravens recover to earn No. 5 seed: After the Steelers slammed the door shut on the Ravens in the AFC North, Baltimore had to set its sights on a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup on wild-card weekend. But that became a real question once the Ravens lost to the Texans in Week 17. They recovered in Week 18, beating the Browns handily for a 10-win season and the 5-seed via head-to-head wins over the Chargers and Broncos. With that, the Ravens were set to face the weaker Texans (as opposed to the Bills or Steelers) in the playoffs and retained an outside shot at a home game down the line.
Chargers, Broncos round out AFC playoff field: In this scenario, the Chargers and Broncos both finished 10-7 (along with the Ravens), but the Chargers got the 6-seed via head-to-head tiebreaker by beating the Broncos twice. That sets up the Chargers to face the Steelers in the wild-card round, while the Broncos must travel to Buffalo.
Projecting the NFC
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)
7. Washington Commanders (11-6)
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8. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
10. San Francisco 49ers (8-9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
12. Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
14. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
15. Chicago Bears (4-13)
16. New York Giants (3-14)
Lions coast to No. 1 seed: Though it looks questionable right now because of injuries, Detroit's hold on the 1-seed quickly grew stronger in simulation No. 812, when it won in Week 16 while its two rivals for the top spot -- Minnesota and Philadelphia -- lost. The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through Ford Field.
Buccaneers stay hot, win NFC South: The Baker Mayfield show rumbled on, with the Buccaneers closing out the regular season on a seven-game winning streak. The Falcons needed to win out and for the Bucs to drop a game, but neither happened.
Rams take NFC West in final game of regular season: With the Seahawks and Rams battling for a division title and the sole NFC West playoff spot, the league moved their Week 18 matchup into the Sunday night spot. The nation watched as Jared Verse, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske got after Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, giving the Rams a win to keep their season alive thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Commanders earn wild-card berth: Outside the NFC West, most of the NFC field was settled heading into Week 16. The Commanders still had some business to take care of to secure their postseason spot, beating the Eagles and Cowboys in the final three weeks to finish with 11 wins and the 7-seed.
Giants earn No. 1 overall pick: Incredibly, all the top No. 1 pick contenders -- the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars and Panthers -- won at least one of their final three games. That left the Giants and Raiders as the lone three-win teams. In this simulation, the Giants won the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker to land the top pick in the 2025 draft.
What to expect in the playoffs
Projected wild-card matchups:
Broncos (7) at Bills (2)
Chargers (6) at Steelers (3)
Ravens (5) at Texans (4)
Commanders (7) at Eagles (2)
Packers (6) at Buccaneers (3)
Vikings (5) at Rams (4)
Who goes all the way? Remember that this is a single simulation. The chalk part of this exercise ended at the regular season and from there, it's pure (weighted) randomness. I still wanted to know how it pans out, though, and I'm guessing you do, too.
In the AFC, the Bills and Steelers won their home wild-card games, but the Ravens went on the road and beat the Texans in a narrow 27-24 contest. The No. 5 seed also won in the NFC, with the Vikings beating the Rams. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers beat the Packers, and the Eagles barely got by the Commanders 30-28.
In the divisional round, favorites reigned ... with one exception. The Ravens beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead 27-7, ending Kansas City's hopes of a three-peat. The Eagles beat the Bucs by two touchdowns, and the Bills and Lions got past the Steelers and Vikings, respectively, in one-score games.
The AFC Championship Game was a tight, back-and-forth affair between the two MVP leaders, but Josh Allen and the Bills prevailed 24-23 to head to the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years. In the NFC, the Lions' defense shut down A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles in a 23-10 win to secure the franchise's first Super Bowl berth.
Projected Super Bowl LIX matchup: Buffalo (2) vs. Detroit (1)
Just like in the Week 15 showdown between the Bills and Lions, Buffalo got out to a two-score lead and never gave it up. Riding an incredible rushing performance from Allen and elite play from their secondary, the Bills beat the Lions 27-13 to win their first Super Bowl title.
ESPN's Hank Gargiulo contributed to this report.
