Multiple Contributors
Mar 25, 2025, 05:30 PM ET
The next stage is set for the 2025 women's NCAA tournament. While upsets were largely scarce across the first two rounds, that guarantees us some heavy-hitting showdowns at the regionals in Birmingham, Alabama, and Spokane, Washington.
The regional semifinals will feature the first Duke-North Carolina showdown in the NCAA tournament, rematches from November in LSU-NC State and TCU-Notre Dame, the next chapter in two of the most storied programs in the sport in Texas-Tennessee, and much more.
But the Sweet 16 unfortunately will not feature USC star and national player of the year favorite JuJu Watkins, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury early in the Trojans' second-round game Monday night.
Still, there is much to look forward to. ESPN breaks down what to expect from each matchup in the Sweet 16 and predicts the winner for each game. Games are listed in chronological order.
Birmingham 2 Regional
(2) Duke vs. (3) North Carolina
Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why North Carolina will win: The first time these teams met (a grueling 53-46 overtime North Carolina win) Alyssa Ustby was the best player on the court, notching one of her nine double-doubles on the season. She missed the next clash (a comfortable Duke win) with a knee injury. Ustby has played well since her return, except in the ACC tournament semifinals against NC State -- not coincidentally, the Tar Heels' only loss since she returned to the lineup.
Why Duke will win: How do the Blue Devils win any game? With their defense. Their recent offensive strides make them an intriguing Final Four pick, but their success is fundamentally derived from defense. They allowed 70 points in only six games this season -- all against NCAA tournament teams -- and were 2-4 in that stretch. They certainly need to score, as evidenced by that January meeting with UNC when they allowed only 53 points in 45 minutes and still lost. But defense is the one constant in Durham since Kara Lawson took over, and this is the best Duke team she has had at that end.
X factor: Reigan Richardson emerged as a star during Duke's run to the Sweet 16 last year. When she scored 35 points in an overtime win over Oklahoma right before Thanksgiving, it seemed to support that status. But she has mostly scuffled since. Last year's top scorer for Duke, Richardson now ranks fourth on the team. Her 13 points in the second round against Oregon was her highest output in March. A return to form would be a huge boost to extending the Blue Devils' season one more week. -- Charlie Creme
Picks to win
Andrea Adelson: Duke 59, UNC 55
Kendra Andrews: Duke 59, UNC 56
Katie Barnes: Duke 58, North Carolina 51
Charlie Creme: Duke 61, North Carolina 57
Kevin Pelton: Duke 60, North Carolina 56
Alexa Philippou: Duke 45, North Carolina 43
Michael Voepel: North Carolina 61, Duke 57
(1) South Carolina vs. (4) Maryland
Friday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why South Carolina will win: Depth. Having the ability to play as many as 10 players, use multiple combinations and turn to the most productive bench in the country gives Dawn Staley a game-planning advantage. She can pivot off what isn't working until she finds what does. From fifth-year senior Te-Hina Paopao to freshman Joyce Edwards, seven different players led the Gamecocks in scoring in a game this season. At some point this tournament, the Gamecocks will need that one individual to step up for a big moment. That time isn't now.
Why Maryland will win: The Terrapins scored 54 of their 111 points against Alabama on contested shots, the most in the NCAA tournament in the past five years. Few teams contest more shots than South Carolina. For Maryland, scoring against pressure will be necessary. Sarah Te-Biasu, Shyanne Sellers and Kaylene Smikle have proved they can do that. Despite not having a player in the regular rotation taller than 6-foot-2, the Terps rank 10th in the country in rebound rate. Brenda Frese's teams are typically good on the boards, so Maryland might be able to compete with South Carolina on the glass.
X factor: MiLaysia Fulwiley. Wildly talented but also inconsistent, the sophomore holds the key to not only the Gamecocks' chances in this region but also their national championship hopes. She is good enough to be their second-leading scorer and their leader in steals. But she also failed to score in double figures 13 times this season, including two of the past three games. -- Creme
Picks to win
Adelson: South Carolina 70, Maryland 55
Andrews: South Carolina 73, Maryland 59
Barnes: South Carolina 75, Maryland 59
Creme: South Carolina 68, Maryland 47
Pelton: South Carolina 84, Maryland 68
Philippou: South Carolina 81, Maryland 67
Voepel: South Carolina 85, Maryland 70
1:10
Saniya Rivers' 17 points, 11 assists fuels NC State to Sweet 16
Saniya Rivers stuffs the stat sheet with 17 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds in the Wolfpack's takedown of Michigan State.
Spokane 1 Regional
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why NC State will win: NC State has tightened up its play since it lost to LSU just before Thanksgiving -- a game in which the Tigers outrebounded the Wolfpack by 20 boards. In particular, freshmen Tilda Trygger and Lorena Awou now have the speed, length and skill level to match LSU. The real difference-maker will be Madison Hayes, NC State's leading rebounder at 7.3 per game, who is also a 3-point shooting threat.
Why LSU will win: LSU's big three -- Flau'Jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams -- is one of the best trios in college basketball, and all three have clicked so far in the tournament. Johnson is attacking the basket. Morrow is taking advantage of double-teams and assisting her teammates. Williams is scoring at will. They are extremely hard to slow down because of how many scoring options they have.
X factor: LSU's trio aside, the game's outcome will come down to the rest of Kim Mulkey's roster. Johnson and Morrow have done such a good job of using the attention opponents give them to open up their teammates -- who must capitalize on those opportunities. The Tigers have emphasized waiting for the best shot rather than taking the first available shot during the tournament, and continuing to do so will be key as they look to reach the Elite Eight. -- Kendra Andrews
Picks to win
Adelson: LSU 75, NC State 65
Andrews: LSU 81, NC State 78
Barnes: LSU 78, NC State 72
Creme: LSU 84, NC State 76
Pelton: LSU 76, NC State 73
Philippou: LSU 83, NC State 81
Voepel: LSU 80, NC State 75
Friday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why UCLA will win: With Lauren Betts becoming the first player with a 30-point, 10-rebound tournament game in program history, the Bruins are playing a style of basketball that's hard for any opponent to stop. UCLA has thrived in presenting Betts as a mismatch, and she will pose problems against a smaller Ole Miss team.
Why Ole Miss will win: Ole Miss is battle-tested. The Rebels have already played No. 1 seeds South Carolina, USC and Texas (twice), as well as No. 2 seeds UConn and NC State, during the regular season. They lost all six games, but they were 22-4 against every other opponent. Their defense has fueled them all season, and they'll need another big performance to win. Ole Miss also needs big showings from Madison Scott and Sira Thienou, who finished with 16 and 14 points, respectively, in the second-round win against Baylor.
X factor: Kiki Rice, who has been Betts' right-hand woman all season, will have to continue to capitalize on all the defensive attention being placed on Betts. Rice had 23 points and seven assists in the Bruins' second-round game against Richmond, with a season-high four 3-pointers from taking advantage of catch-and-shoot opportunities. UCLA will need that kind of performance from her again Friday night. -- Andrews
Picks to win
Adelson: UCLA 66, Ole Miss 53
Andrews: UCLA 72, Ole Miss 53
Barnes: UCLA 70, Ole Miss 52
Creme: UCLA 69, Ole Miss 55
Pelton: UCLA 71, Ole Miss 63
Philippou: UCLA 72, Ole Miss 60
Voepel: UCLA 75, Ole Miss 62
1:35
Madison Booker scores 20 to lead Texas to Sweet 16
Madison Booker leads Texas to the Sweet Sixteen with 20 points in the Longhorns' 65-48 win over Illinois.
Birmingham 3 Regional
(2) TCU vs. (3) Notre Dame
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Why Notre Dame will win: Hannah Hidalgo will be the best player on the court. TCU has big-time players in Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince, but the Notre Dame sophomore is on a different level. More importantly, she seems to have regained the passion and energy that is so vital to her game. A fiery Hidalgo produces the best results. She also no doubt remembers two things heading into Saturday: the loss to TCU in November, in which Notre Dame blew a 14-point lead and she was outplayed by Van Lith in the fourth quarter, and last year's Sweet 16 game, in which she scored a season-low 10 points on 4-of-17 shooting in the loss to Oregon State.
Why TCU will win: The Horned Frogs might be new to the Sweet 16, but their players are not. All five starters have made it this far at least once in their careers, and Van Lith has a history of further NCAA tournament success. The Big 12 Player of the Year has played in 19 tournament games and is averaging 15.3 points in that span. Her 8.5 assists in this tournament ranks third in the country. Notre Dame's guards will present a big challenge Saturday, but Van Lith had 21 points and seven assists in that 76-68 upset of the Irish in the Cayman Islands -- at the time the biggest win in TCU women's basketball history.
X factor: Is Olivia Miles truly healthy? She twisted her ankle in the opening-round win against Stephen F. Austin and hasn't quite looked like herself in the tournament. She has a combined 13 assists and just one turnover, but she has scored 10 total points and taken 10 shots. With the competition only growing in magnitude, more tangible production, especially that 40.1 3-point shooting percentage, might be necessary. While defense isn't necessarily a strength for Miles, her length could also be a big asset in cutting off the driving angles of Van Lith. -- Creme
Picks to win
Adelson: TCU 79, Notre Dame 77
Andrews: Notre Dame 82, TCU 78
Barnes: TCU 72, Notre Dame 69
Creme: Notre Dame 81, TCU 72
Pelton: Notre Dame 73, TCU 67
Philippou: Notre Dame 73, TCU 70
Voepel: Notre Dame 77, TCU 71
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Why Texas will win: Few teams, if any, can match the Longhorns' defensive toughness. The schemes and personnel are a superior combination. Rori Harmon as the harassing on-ball defender on the perimeter makes Vic Schaefer's strategies work, while the wall of size inside of Taylor Jones, Kyla Oldacre and Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda can squeeze the life out of opposing offenses attempting to score in the lane. Throw in that on most nights Texas has the best player on the court in Madison Booker and it's advantage, Longhorns.
Why Tennessee will win: The Lady Vols can simply outshoot the Longhorns -- not necessarily more accurately but in sheer volume. Tennessee makes only 32.9% of its 3-pointers but shoots more than all but two teams in the country and makes the second-most of those shots. Texas does not have the willingness, or the firepower, to compete in that area. If the Lady Vols can cash in from deep enough times, the Longhorns might not be able to make enough 2-pointers to compensate.
X factor: These are two of the best rebounding teams in the country, but when they met in Austin in late January (a four-point Longhorns win), Texas was plus-15 on the boards -- and that was with Oldacre as a nonfactor. The Lady Vols' best chance is to tighten that difference up, especially if it comes in the form of second-chance points. So keep an eye on those offensive rebounding numbers. If the advantage goes to Oldacre and Jones, the Longhorns will prevail. -- Creme
Picks to win
Adelson: Tennessee 77, Texas 76
Andrews: Texas 70, Tennessee 63
Barnes: Texas 68, Tennessee 60
Creme: Texas 75, Tennessee 70
Pelton: Texas 81, Tennessee 69
Philippou: Texas 78, Tennessee 72
Voepel: Texas 66, Tennessee 62
2:11
Paige Bueckers drops 34 points as UConn routs SDST to reach Sweet 16
Paige Bueckers scores 34 points in her final game at Gampel Pavilion to lead UConn past South Dakota State in the NCAA tournament.
Spokane 4 Regional
Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why UConn will win: There might not be a better trio of players in the country right now than Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong. On Monday, that group combined to score or assist on 78 of UConn's 91 points against South Dakota State. The Huskies have also been playing incredible defense in the tournament, allowing a combined 91 points and forcing 45 turnovers. Experience is on the Huskies' side, too: Six rotation players have appeared in a Sweet 16 or deeper in the NCAA tournament.
Why Oklahoma will win: Going up against Oklahoma's offense can be a challenge. The Sooners are first in the country in pace, share the ball extremely well and are efficient from the floor, particularly inside the arc. They also have a huge advantage inside in Raegan Beers, their 6-4 center who transferred from Oregon State. Frontcourt depth outside of Strong is one weakness for UConn this year. Oklahoma would need to overwhelm the Huskies offensively and step up with some of its best defense of the season to spell a major upset in Spokane.
X factor: Can UConn's defense dictate and turn over Oklahoma, or will the Sooners be able to take care of the ball? They average 18.7 turnovers per game, one of the worst marks in the country. That won't fly against a Huskies team that is responsible for causing its opponents to commit 45 turnovers so far this tournament, albeit against lesser competition. -- Alexa Philippou
Picks to win
Adelson: UConn 88, Oklahoma 60
Andrews: UConn 82, Oklahoma 65
Barnes: UConn 85, Oklahoma 62
Creme: UConn 90, Oklahoma 68
Pelton: UConn 84, Oklahoma 70
Philippou: UConn 80, Oklahoma 62
Voepel: UConn 91, Oklahoma 82
(1) USC vs. (5) Kansas State
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Why USC will win: The Trojans face a monumental task in looking to win without Watkins, the heartbeat of their squad. Kiki Iriafen will have to have the game of her life, similar to how she put USC on her back with 36 points and nine rebounds against Mississippi State on Monday. Everyone else will have to step up, too: From senior Rayah Marshall to transfer Talia von Oelhoffen to star freshmen Kennedy Smith, Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel. Those last three also had a strong game Monday, combining for 41 points. The Trojans have been an elite defensive squad this season, which Watkins was a huge part of, but will have to lean on that end of the floor now more than ever to beat the Wildcats.
Why Kansas State will win: Even if Watkins hadn't gotten hurt, Kansas State was looking like a tough Sweet 16 matchup. With Ayoka Lee in the lineup, the Wildcats are 20-1, with those two most recent wins coming over the past week since she returned from a foot injury. Lee has been doing well back on the floor, and the Wildcats surround her with three players shooting over 40% from 3, including Temira Poindexter, who is coming off a confidence-instilling game in which she sank eight 3-pointers to help lift Kansas State over Kentucky in overtime in Lexington. That group doesn't even include point guard Serena Sundell, the conductor of one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. In other words, the Trojans will have their hands full.
X factor: How will USC rally around Watkins, and one another, following Watkins' injury? No one would blame the Trojans for feeling defeated after losing their superstar, but sometimes injuries can be a galvanizing force that brings the best out of a team. If the other USC players can channel that energy, they'll be a tough out in Spokane. -- Philippou
Picks to win
Adelson: USC 61, Kansas State 60
Andrews: USC 65, Kansas State 61
Barnes: USC 62, Kansas State 59
Creme: USC 68, Kansas State 65
Pelton: USC 68, Kansas State 67
Philippou: Kansas State 62, USC 55
Voepel: Kansas State 70, USC 67
