NHL playoff projections: Canucks or Flames for the final Western Conference wild card?

4 hours ago 4

ESPN staffMar 12, 2025, 06:55 AM ET

The Vancouver Canucks were the regular-season champions of the Pacific Division in 2023-24, and won their first-round playoff matchup against the Nashville Predators. The Calgary Flames finished 17 points out of a wild-card spot last season, and during last season and the offseason, traded away Jacob Markstrom, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev.

One might say that expectations were different for the two clubs before the season, which is backed up by the preseason point total over/unders from ESPN BET: the Canucks were listed at 99.5, with the Flames at 81.5

Nevertheless, the two Western Canadian teams are battling for the final Western Conference wild-card spot with a little over a month left in the season. On Wednesday night, the they'll face off in Calgary (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+). Heading into the game, Calgary has 70 points and 24 regulation wins in 63 games, and Vancouver has 69 and 23 through 63. This will be the final head-to-match matchup between the clubs.

Of the Flames' remaining games beyond Wednesday, 10 out of 18 are against teams in a playoff position. For the Canucks, it's nine out of the final 17.

Stathletes projects the Flames to finish in that coveted wild-card position, with 89.6 points. Vancouver is projected at 88.1 points, behind Calgary and also the St. Louis Blues and Utah Hockey Club.

Given the tight margins, every game counts, particularly one against a fellow wild-card bubble team.

There is a lot of runway left until the final day of the season April 17, and we'll help you keep track of it all on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we'll provide details on all the playoff races -- along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today's schedule
Yesterday's scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 C algary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Wednesday's games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Utah Hockey Club, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken, 10:30 p.m.

Tuesday's scoreboard

Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 2
New Jersey Devils 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Ottawa Senators 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (SO)
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Rangers 1
Montreal Canadiens 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Washington Capitals 7, Anaheim Ducks 4
Los Angeles Kings 4, New York Islanders 1
Nashville Predators 3, San Jose Sharks 2

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Florida Panthers

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 104.7
Next game: @ TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Toronto Maple Leafs

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 103.8
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Tampa Bay Lightning

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Ottawa Senators

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 93.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 95.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Montreal Canadiens

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 9.9%
Tragic number: 35

Boston Bruins

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.7%
Tragic number: 31

Detroit Red Wings

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 84.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 6.7%
Tragic number: 33

Buffalo Sabres

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 72.9
Next game: @ DET (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 25

Metro Division

Washington Capitals

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 118.6
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Carolina Hurricanes

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 103.5
Next game: vs. DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

New Jersey Devils

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 94.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A

Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 89.7
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 41.6%
Tragic number: N/A

New York Rangers

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 29.9%
Tragic number: 33

New York Islanders

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. EDM (Friday)
Playoff chances: 14.5%
Tragic number: 32

Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 77.0
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 25

Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 75.9
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 23

Central Division

Winnipeg Jets

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. DAL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Colorado Avalanche

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Minnesota Wild

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98.4
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A

St. Louis Blues

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 29.8%
Tragic number: 34

Utah Hockey Club

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: vs. ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 25.9%
Tragic number: 34

Nashville Predators

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73.0
Next game: @ ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 24

Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 61.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

Pacific Division

Vegas Golden Knights

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106.3
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Edmonton Oilers

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Los Angeles Kings

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 100.2
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Calgary Flames

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 35.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Vancouver Canucks

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 88.4
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 20.3%
Tragic number: 36

Anaheim Ducks

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 80.7
Next game: @ UTA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 30

Seattle Kraken

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 23

San Jose Sharks

Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 53.4
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 6

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL's Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.