Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comDec 10, 2024, 11:06 AM ET
Though none of them are confirmed as starters as of Monday, the matchups featuring the Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils and Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club may well feature goaltenders among the top 13 in goals-against average in each and every crease, as well as goaltenders among the top six in save percentage in three out of the four.
Among goalies with at least 300 minutes (a very generous qualifier), Filip Gustavsson is the runaway leader in both GAA and save percentage. Both Leafs netminders, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, are among the top five in each statistical measure. Karel Vejmelka of Utah clocks in at fifth in goals-against average and sixth in save percentage. Jacob Markstrom is a stretch to include, ranking 13th in goals-against average but a distant 25th in save percentage.
Still, it's an impressive array of starters ready to tend twine in two key matchups on Tuesday.
This raises the question: Does having a statistically elite goaltender influence sports betting outcomes? Specifically, we'll focus on the over/under.
There are a couple of chicken-versus-egg problems that can't easily be solved here.
For one, the sportsbooks almost surely bake some of this into the odds, so the outcomes are slanted toward the under. The sportsbooks don't always know for certain who the starter will be in each game, particularly if we look at the Wild, where Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have very different statistical outcomes. This season, 62% of games have had a 6.5 total for the over/under. However, when a starting goalie among the statistical leaders is involved, that number drops to 53%.
Secondly, the list of statistical leaders has evolved throughout the season, making this analysis specific to the current moment (as of Dec. 10). For instance, Joseph Woll wasn't among the leaders earlier in the season, when he started late due to injury. His inclusion in our sample reflects his recent performance rather than his season-long numbers. To clarify, the current leaders haven't necessarily been dominant all season, but we are analyzing past games based on their status as leaders now.
Setting aside those two issues, let's look at how the results have broken for over/unders involving the top goaltenders.
Overall, regardless of the over/under threshold, the games with the goalies have managed to trend more toward the under. In total this season, 53.6 percent of games have been under. Games with the top 13 goalies in goals-against average have been under 56.5 percent of the time, while games with the top six goalies in save percentage have been under 64.8 percent of the time. This showcases the ability of these leaders to definitely influence the results at least a little, especially if they have a sterling save percentage.
For games with a 6.5 over/under total, the overall hit rate for under this season is 57.8%, but for the GAA leaders it is 62.6% and for the save percentage leaders it jumps to 74%. That's right; In the 47 games with a 6.5 total involving the six leading goaltenders in save percentage (Gustavsson, Connor Hellebuyck, Stolarz, Lukas Dostal, Woll and Vejmelka), 35 of the games have gone under.
The margins narrow when sportsbooks account for these goaltenders. For games with a 5.5 total, the overall under hit rate is 46.7%, rising to 49.4% for GAA leaders and 53.7% for save percentage leaders.
Is there an edge to exploit here? Maybe, but it has to feel right, too. The Leafs and Devils have a 6.5 total on the board, but does it feel like these two power plays can be kept at bay to stay under that? Especially when we really had to stretch to get Markstrom into this conversation to begin with. I'll probably take the under in a same-game parlay, but it's not something I'm attacking.
I would feel stronger about games with goalies at both ends among the statistical leaders, like the potential for the Minnesota-Utah matchup. The problem there is that the line opened with a 5.5 total, so the quality goaltending is already accounted for.
Keep this tilt in mind though. If you see top goalies battling each other and a 6.5 total, that under is worth attacking most of the time. Maybe we'll get one on Thursday when Dostal and the Ducks visit Woll and the Leafs.
Latest odds as of publication. For latest odds movement, go to ESPN BET.
Featured games
Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils
7 p.m., Prudential Center, Watch live on ESPN+, Hulu and now Disney+
Devils (-1.5, +170), -135 money line
Maple Leafs (+1.5, -215), +115 money line
Total 6.5: (Over +105, Under -125)
Both teams enter the matchup following losses: two straight for the Leafs and a shutout defeat for the Devils. It's the second head-to-head matchup for Devils coach Sheldon Keefe against his old club, with the Leafs getting the better of him for his first home game at the Prudential Center way back on Oct. 10.
The Leafs have been rotating their goaltending evenly of late, with Stolarz next up if the rotation holds. Markstrom is a lock for the Devils after Jake Allen was in net for Sunday's loss to the Avalanche.
As mentioned already above, I'm bearish on the under even though it's a 6.5 total mostly because of the firepower on both power plays. However, there's a special on offer that I like for this game that finds a happy medium: Both Teams To Score 3-plus Goals (+130). It's stronger odds than the over and is the most likely way we get there, as this doesn't feel ripe for one side to dominate. Don't forget, technically the under could still hit if the game goes to a shootout at 3-3.
For players props, both of these teams currently have one player on their top power-play unit that gets better odds just because they aren't one of the superstars, so why not stack them? Matthew Knies for Over 0.5 total power-play points (+375) and Stefan Noesen for Over 0.5 total power-play points (+375) combine for +1581 in a same-game parlay.
Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club
9:30 p.m., Delta Center, Watch live on ESPN+, Hulu and now Disney+
Wild (-1.5, +200), -120 money line
Utah HC (+1.5, -275), +100 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -120, Under +100)
Gustavsson hasn't experienced a loss since Nov. 25 to the Winnipeg Jets, but it's been a stretch of less-than-dangerous opponents since then outside of one matchup with the Vancouver Canucks. Utah, meanwhile, has also had a quality run of games in that same timeframe, only not getting a point in the standings in a 2-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Dec. 2.
In other words, both of these teams are coming in relatively strong, if you look past the Wild's loss on Saturday with Fleury in the crease ( his first loss of the season, by the way).
The Wild have been defying the odds when they are road favorites with a much better record both against the spread (7-4) and moneyline (8-3) than the rest of the league.
The strength of the recent goaltending has me interested in the under even though this is a 5.5 total. As much as I would prefer the odds from the spread for the Wild instead of the moneyline, picking a favorite to beat the spread and going with the under is a recipe for disaster. So the same-game parlay here might be Wild moneyline (-120) and Under 5.5 total goals (-105) for combined odds of +226. Those who feel a little spicier than I can change that to Wild -1.5 game spread (+200) with a custom Under 4.5 total goals (+240) to spike their parlay to +774, but that's really calling for a specific result (3-1 or 2-0 for the Wild).
1:25
Stat Stories: Monday's standout NHL fantasy performances
Check out some of the top performers in fantasy NHL from Monday, including Arvid Soderblom and Jason Zucker.
Betting trends
While we are on the topic of over/under, let's check in on the overall data this season.
Of the 444 games through Monday, 238 games have been under (53.6%), while 206 games have been over (46.4%).
But, when it comes to games with 6.5 total, 160 games have been under (57.8%), while 117 games have been over (42.2%).
And, when it comes to games with 5.5 total, 78 games have been under (46.7%), while 89 games have been over (53.3%).
So how do those play out with the trusty $1 bet thought experiment?
Putting $1 on every 6.5 game to be under would have grossed: $135.62 on 160 wins and lost $117 for a net result of $18.62.
Putting $1 on every 6.5 game to be over would have grossed: $114.75 on 117 wins and lost $160 for a net result of -$45.25.
Putting $1 on every 5.5 game to be under would have grossed: $80.41 on 78 wins and lost $89 for a net result of -$8.59.
Putting $1 on every 5.5 game to be over would have grossed: $70.72 on 89 wins and lost $78 for a net result of -$7.28.
Of all the basic bet strategies, from over/under, to moneyline, to spread for favorites or underdogs on road or at home, the 6.5 under bet is the only one performing in the black. This is thanks to some pretty healthy odds hitting sometimes. While low odds like -130 and -125 have won the most (31 and 30 times, respectively), there have been a lot of hits on better-paying odds on the 6.5-total unders this season: -110 has won 16 times, -105 has won 10 times and even money has won nine times.
