Most likely to get healthier? Least likely to worry about tomorrow? Barnwell's NFC offseason superlatives

May is graduation season, so it seems like the natural time to hand out superlatives for each NFL team, hitting the highs and lows of their offseason hauls. Last week, I handed out superlatives to the AFC's 16 teams, hitting on everything from the Browns' quarterback additions to the Chiefs approaching unprecedent levels of inexperience on Patrick Mahomes' blindside.

Now it's time to move to the NFC. Which team is making the rest of the league jealous? Which is spending way less on one side of the ball than anybody else? And which is most likely to be in the trade market between now and the start of the season?

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AFC offseason superlatives: How all 16 teams fared

I'll run through all of those as I make my way across the NFC, but let's start in Dallas, where the Cowboys are seemingly placing more faith in what they saw at the college level than what has actually played out for some struggling players:

Jump to an NFC team:
ARI | ATL | CAR | CHI
DAL | DET | GB | LAR
MIN | NO | NYG | PHI
SEA | SF | TB | WSH

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

The superlative: Most likely to look at their old scouting reports

For some organizations, it's easier to let go of what you've seen than what you believe. For whatever other faults the Cowboys have, they have typically ranked among the league's best organizations at drafting and developing talent. Of their top 20 players over the past 30 years -- by approximate value -- 19 began their career with Dallas, with Deion Sanders as the exception. Team owner Jerry Jones generally drafts his stars and holds on to them until they retire.

If a franchise believes in its scouting process, it might believe there's an opportunity to exploit. If another team takes the player it wanted on draft day and he struggles with that organization, it might seem like that player could thrive in a better situation with a fresh start. Throw in the fact that most of the player's contract will have already been paid by the former team and it has a recipe for what many refer to a "second draft" philosophy.

I wrote all about this last year when the Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick for wideout Jonathan Mingo, a deal that didn't exactly deliver immediate results, as he caught five passes in eight games. The Eagles made a similar move before the season for Jahan Dotson, and while the former Commanders first-rounder had a touchdown catch in Philadelphia's wild-card win over the Packers, I'm not sure that deal is going to rank high on the list of the great things general manager Howie Roseman did in 2024.

The Cowboys still believe in Mingo, though, and their offseason was full of bets on highly drafted players who have struggled to start their careers, players they presumably had excellent grades on coming out of college. They traded for cornerback Kaiir Elam and linebacker Kenneth Murray, two former first-round picks who haven't remotely lived up to expectations in the NFL. Elam wasn't able to consistently stay in the starting lineup in Buffalo and was targeted over and over again as an injury replacement in the AFC Championship Game, while Murray has allowed a passer rating north of 107 in coverage.

The Cowboys didn't have to send much more than a swap of late Day 3 picks, but unlike Mingo and Dotson, Elam and Murray aren't on bargain deals. Elam will make $2.6 million in 2025, while Dallas inherited the final $7.4 million remaining on the two-year deal Murray signed with the Titans in free agency a year ago. Neither player has been even a solid starter in the NFL, but the Cowboys clearly think they can develop players who entered the league with significant pedigrees.

Likewise, Dallas went after highly drafted players in free agency. It supplemented the defensive line with a pair of former top-five picks in Solomon Thomas and Dante Fowler Jr., with the latter returning to the organization after an impressive season in Washington. Payton Turner, another first-rounder who never broke out in New Orleans, also joined on a one-year deal.

On offense, the Cowboys added two former second-rounders who have battled injuries as pros in running back Javonte Williams and wide receiver Parris Campbell. They also traded a third-rounder to the Steelers for another former second-rounder in George Pickens, although unlike the other players in this group, Pickens has lived up to expectations on the field. Dallas might instead see Pickens as undervalued or underappreciated by virtue of the offense in which he has toiled. Then again, he's likely to take Mingo's spot in the starting lineup.

Outside of the Pickens trade, none of these deals is dramatic or cost a significant amount. What they have in common, though, is a clear bet being made by the Cowboys: That their evaluation of what a player was going to do as a pro is more accurate than what that player has actually done somewhere else. Is that a successful strategy? It doesn't appear to have been with Mingo.

New York Giants

The superlative: Most likely to throw deep more often

Even the best versions of the Daniel Jones-era Giants offense were more about checking down and turning small profits than creating explosive plays. Jones ranked last in the league in air yards per pass attempt during his career-best 2022 campaign, and as the Giants tried to expand their offense to be more spectacular in 2023 and 2024, his propensity to hold the ball and a middling offensive line usually meant those attempts were futile. They ranked 24th in deep pass rate last season and were 26th in QBR on the deep throws they attempted. They rank 30th in deep pass rate over the past three seasons.

We talk a lot about how teams respond to a disappointing coach by hiring his antithesis as a replacement, and perhaps the Giants have done that here in moving on from the Jones era. Their new veteran passers will push it downfield. Over the past three years, Russell Wilson has thrown 13.4% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, the fourth-highest rate in football. Jameis Winston is just behind in sixth. Between them is Josh Allen, the quarterback New York coach Brian Daboll helped mold into a superstar in Buffalo.

Those veterans will eventually give way to first-round pick Jaxson Dart, who also pushes the envelope. He ranked third in the nation in deep pass rate in 2024, with a whopping 21.9% of his throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield. He ranked 14th in Total QBR on those throws among passers with a minimum of 50 deep attempts. He wasn't playing in the most pro-style offense at Ole Miss and wasn't often asked to go deep through a progression, but there's no doubting his ability to sling it downfield.

The Giants will throw deep more often, but can they do it effectively? There are reasons to think the personnel should make that easier. Darius Slayton has been stuck for years as the nominal deep threat in an offense that doesn't throw deep often or well, so the addition of these downfield passers should play to his strengths. Malik Nabers can win at all levels, giving New York two receivers who can concern other teams as deep playmakers.

As usual, the offensive line looms as the biggest potential concern. The Giants have seemingly abandoned the Evan Neal experiment at right tackle, with the team confirming last week that the 2022 top-10 pick will move to guard full time. That leaves Jermaine Eluemunor on the right side and Andrew Thomas, returning from a season-ending foot injury, protecting the blindside. If they can give their new quarterbacks time to throw, expect Daboll & Co. to make the hard camera move more often.

Philadelphia Eagles

The superlative: Most likely to inspire jealousy in other teams

When you go 14-3, roll through the postseason and stomp all over a seemingly unbeatable Chiefs team in the Super Bowl, there are going to be other teams that want what you have. The Eagles responded to a disastrous collapse in 2023 with a storybook season, and stars around the league noticed.

One such star was Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who brought up Philadelphia as a prototype for what he wanted his own team to do. "The Eagles are paying everybody," Burrow said in February. "That seems like the way. Whatever they're doing."

Burrow was half-right. The Eagles are paying everybody ... on one side of the football. On defense, the team that just won the title ranked 17th in cash spending. The Eagles' roster on that side of the ball was mostly littered with draft picks; the only defenders they had making more than $10 million were free agent edge rusher Bryce Huff, veteran cornerback Darius Slay and Super Bowl hero Josh Sweat. Eleven of their 14 most-used players on defense during the Super Bowl were either players on rookie deals or veterans making $5 million or less.

This offseason, with Slay, Sweat, Brandon Graham and C.J. Gardner-Johnson all leaving, the Eagles are even more frugal on defense. They rank 31st in cash spending on defenders for the 2025 season, with just over $100 million in actual money going out. They might roll out a Week 1 starting lineup with 10 defensive players on rookie deals and linebacker Zack Baun as the lone veteran making significant money.

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On the other side of the ball, Burrow was (and remains) absolutely correct. The Eagles fielded the most expensive offense in NFL history, as they paid out $193.9 million to their offensive stars. There have been no cutbacks this offseason. With center Cam Jurgens becoming the latest standout to sign an extension and running back Saquon Barkley earning a raise after his spectacular debut season in Philadelphia, the Eagles really are paying just about everyone. The only starters on their offense who aren't going to be on something resembling a market-value veteran deal are right guard Tyler Steen and tight end Grant Calcaterra, both of whom are on rookie contracts.

Roseman is set to spend a whopping $217.3 million on the offensive side of the ball in 2025. That's $30 million more than any other team, with the Chiefs in second at $187.2 million. Burrow's Bengals, having paid wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins after Burrow's public suggestions to do so, are in third at $186.3 million. (Cincinnati is apparently following Burrow's request to emulate the Eagles very closely by not paying edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.)

Is heavily spending on one side of the ball a wise plan? Well, it certainly worked for the Eagles last season. If a team was going to choose a side of the ball to focus on, offense would be the wiser choice. Research by Football Outsiders found that offensive performance was more consistent from year to year than defense, suggesting an organization is more likely to get what it paid for by leaning into spending on the guys who put up the points.

And if anyone has seen that play out in reality, it's the Eagles: While their offense has ranked seventh or better in points scored per possession over the past three seasons, their defense has gone from 11th in 2022 to 30th in 2023 before improving all the way to second last season.

Washington Commanders

The superlative: Most likely to eat an early dinner and go to sleep at a sensible time

When a team breaks through as quickly and dramatically as the Commanders did last season, it's natural to think of them as a young squad on the rise. The heartbeat of the franchise is their 24-year-old superstar quarterback, Jayden Daniels. They got great work out of rookie second-round picks Mike Sainristil and Jer'Zhan Newton a year ago. Guard Sam Cosmi was on pace to be a Pro Bowler before he fell off in the second half. Those are all impressive players, but they represent most of the young talent who played meaningful snaps on this roster in 2024.

The Ron Rivera regime didn't deliver many successful draft picks to general manager Adam Peters, who took over in 2024, so the former 49ers executive filled in the many gaps on the roster with free agent additions. Tight end Zach Ertz, linebacker Bobby Wagner, offensive lineman Andrew Wylie and pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr. all held their own in propelling Washington into an unexpected playoff berth.

Those four all have something in common: They're over 30. Owing to the imported veterans filling out starting roles on both sides of the ball, the Commanders were the league's seventh-oldest team on a snap-weighted age basis. They were one of just four to rank in the top 10 for snap-weighted age on both offense and defense, joining the Vikings, Falcons and Browns.

On top of that, the Commanders didn't get appreciably younger this offseason. Most of the veterans Peters brought in who played well in 2024 were brought back for another season. They and the rest of the remaining members of the roster will be a year older. This organization had only three top-200 picks in April's draft by virtue of several Peters trades, which means the team won't have an influx of young talent throughout the roster from the draft.

The offseason moves made by the organization didn't make them younger, either. The Commanders traded for wideout Deebo Samuel Sr. (29), and he'll take the snaps that went to the departed Olamide Zaccheaus (27). Laremy Tunsil (who turns 31 in August) will step in at left tackle, which will take snaps away from either Brandon Coleman (24) or Wylie (30). (Some of those tackle snaps did go to 33-year-old Cornelius Lucas.) Cornerback Jonathan Jones (who turns 32 in September) replaces Benjamin St-Juste (27), while Will Harris (29) steps in for Jeremy Chinn (27) at safety.

Not all of the moves made the Commanders older. They'll be a little younger in swapping Jonathan Allen for Javon Kinlaw at defensive tackle, while edge rusher Deatrich Wise is about the same age as Fowler, who left for the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will also try to find roles for 2024 Day 2 picks Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott, who would make the receiving corps younger. It's too early to draw conclusions about their futures, but it's also fair to say there wasn't a ton ahead of them on the depth chart last season, and they combined to catch 23 passes.

There's a fine line between old and experienced, and a veteran roster didn't stop the Commanders from making it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last season. As they look to go further in 2025, though, I'd consider what happened to the most similar team in roster construction to these Commanders.

The 2023 Texans broke through quickly after landing a star quarterback in the draft, but they surrounded that passer with one of the league's oldest rosters. In 2024, while they won their division and a playoff game, they battled through a frustrating season and didn't take the step forward many were hoping. The Commanders should still be good, but this might be more of a consolidation year than one in which they challenge for a Super Bowl, in part because their roster doesn't have many key contributors who project to get better at this point of their careers.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears

The superlative: Most likely to dial up play-action

Bears fans are ready to see new coach Ben Johnson reimagine their offense. One thing I strongly suspect we'll see from the former Lions offensive coordinator is a heavy dose of play-action. In 2024, Detroit's Jared Goff threw just under 36% of his attempts with a play-fake attached, the highest rate for any quarterback. Caleb Williams and the Bears, meanwhile, used play-action on only 18.5% of their dropbacks, which was the league's third-lowest rate.

Johnson leaned into play-action to make Goff's life easier, using those fakes to create throwing lanes and vertical space for all the dig and other in-breaking routes Goff throws so well. The 39-year-old Johnson has already mentioned his focus on creating EPA (expected points added) in the passing game, and there's a clear gap between the play-action game and traditional passing exhibited by their respective EPA figures. The average dropback pass with no play-fake generated 0.15 EPA last season. Adding a play-fake bumped that to 0.21 EPA per play; that's roughly the difference between the average pass from the 2024 Rams and 2024 Steelers.

The Bears added players this offseason who would aid the play-action game. They moved on from Keenan Allen and replaced him with rookie second-round pick Luther Burden, who was one of the best receivers at generating yards after the catch in this draft class. Johnson and general manager Ryan Poles used the No. 10 pick on Colston Loveland, whose ability as a "move" tight end should allow the Bears to line up in 12 personnel more often. Loveland is not going to make anyone forget about Rob Gronkowski or George Kittle as a blocker, but having bigger bodies on the field with multiple tight ends forces defenses to match up accordingly, making it more likely he will get matched up on those play-action opportunities against a linebacker.

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The moves to upgrade at guard and center should also help create a push in the run game while giving Williams time to turn his back for fakes without having interior pressure in his face. Teams don't need to "establish the run" to have an effective play-action game within a given week's set of snaps, but any sort of downfield passing attack needs to be able to control the pocket and at least scare teams with the threat of running the ball. The Lions had no qualms about running on just about any down or distance, which made the play-action game even more difficult to diagnose.

Of course, a great play-action game isn't as simple as importing a playbook. The Lions had excellent tackles in Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. The Bears ... did not have excellent tackles last year, and for all they did on the interior, the only tackle addition they made is second-round pick Ozzy Trapilo. Can the edges hold up long enough for Williams to turn his back, get to the end of his dropback and identify where the ball needs to go without being pressured?

And while there are plenty of excuses to be made for what happened with Williams last season, the rookie played hero ball too often. He held the football longer than anybody else wanted, turned down open receivers and had a habit of not being on the same page with his receivers and their route concepts. Johnson's most important task in his first season will be getting Williams to play within the offense. Goff was willing to do that and turned his career around as a result. Williams is capable of making out-of-structure plays in a way Goff cannot, but they have to be the exception as opposed to the core of the offense.

Detroit Lions

The superlative: Most likely to be healthier on defense

The Lions endured a run of historic injury proportions last season. By the end of their playoff loss to the Commanders, they were down 13 players from their defense in September, including their top three pass rushers and top three cornerbacks. While coordinator Aaron Glenn loaded up on blitzes to cover up for the missing edge rushers, Detroit was found out by Jayden Daniels & Co. in a 45-31 loss, ending what had been a spectacular season.

Just about everybody who went down is back, with the only departing starter on the defensive side of the ball, Carlton Davis, replaced by former Jets corner D.J. Reed. Free agents Marcus Davenport and Derrick Barnes were both re-signed. General manager Brad Holmes used his top pick on interior lineman Tyleik Williams, a 329-pound nose tackle who will help the Lions on early downs against the run.

Twenty-six different Detroit players lined up for at least 100 defensive snaps last season. Since 2007, just two teams have fielded more players for at least 100 defensive snaps while posting a winning record: the 2023 Steelers and the 2022 edition of these same Lions, who each ran out 27 players during their successful campaigns. Sheer numbers of players isn't a perfect proxy for how significantly teams were battling injuries, but this is a reasonable measure of how difficult it was for certain teams to rely on a core of defensive talent.

Does that portend improvement for the Lions in 2025? Maybe, but not quite as much as you would expect. Looking at the 27 other teams with winning records that used at least 24 defensive players for 100 snaps since 2007, their EPA per play rank improved by an average of 2.4 spots. There were teams that made massive improvements as they got healthier, such as the 2023-24 Eagles, but there were also defenses that declined, such as the 2010-11 Buccaneers, who fell from 19th to 32nd in EPA per play.

The Lions don't have a lot of space to improve, given that they ranked eighth in EPA per play despite the injuries a year ago. They will get back star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, which will go a long way, but it's tough to expect the 2022 No. 2 pick to immediately play the way he was before his leg injury. They've also lost Glenn to the Jets, and replacement Kelvin Sheppard has never been a defensive coordinator at any level. I don't have any issue with coach Dan Campbell promoting from within to replace Glenn, but given how strong the Lions are throughout their roster, the departure of Glenn (and of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson) is one of the few things that might hold them back in 2025.

Green Bay Packers

The superlative: Most likely to have a logjam at wide receiver

Earlier this offseason, running back Josh Jacobs expressed his opinion that the Packers needed to add a No. 1 wide receiver to get to the next level, hinting that the proven receiver they needed might be former teammate Davante Adams. The idea was a little odd given that Jacobs had just been on a Raiders team that had added Adams and immediately declined from 10-7 to 6-11. Given that the Packers ended last season with their top three wide receivers all injured, though, you could understand the desire to have a proven player like Adams on the field ahead of, say, Malik Heath.

General manager Brian Gutekunst doesn't often target players in their 30s, so it's no surprise Adams went elsewhere this offseason. Gutekunst did target fresh options at receiver, though, as Green Bay used its first-round pick on speedster Matthew Golden and a third-rounder on super-athlete Savion Williams. The Packers already had one of the league's deepest groups of wide receivers before this offseason, and everyone on that depth chart is currently on the 2025 roster.

The draft picks might signal Gutekunst's attitude toward the growing cost to roster high-end wide receivers and whether he thinks it's a good value to pay $25 million or more per year to any of the current Packers wideouts. Since trading Adams, they have spent just over $37 million on their receivers, the sixth-lowest figure for any team over the past three seasons. Playing on what was comfortably the league's most run-heavy team in neutral game scripts last season, it might not make sense for Green Bay to spend a ton at the position.

Decision time was coming for the receivers who have been on the roster. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are eligible for extensions now and free agents after the 2025 season. Jayden Reed becomes eligible for a new deal next offseason and would be a free agent after the 2026 campaign. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are restricted free agents this offseason and unrestricted the following year. This group has been cheap, but it's about to get more expensive to retain, either in Green Bay or elsewhere.

If Golden and Williams impress in training camp, teams will be calling the Packers to inquire about their young wideouts and whether any of them might shake available before the start of the season. Reed's ability after the catch is unique, and for whatever it's worth, the team reassured him he was their top receiver earlier this month. Watson's role in the lineup could be filled by Golden, but it's unclear when Watson will be able to get back on the field after tearing an ACL in January, which would make it difficult to get a meaningful trade return for him.

Doubs seems like the most obvious candidate, given that he was already suspended for one week by the team last season for missing a pair of practices. Owed $3.4 million in the final year of his rookie deal, the Packers might rack up a compensatory pick if he leaves after the season as a free agent, but Gutekunst has been relatively aggressive adding options such as Jacobs, Xavier McKinney and Nate Hobbs over the past couple of offseasons. Dealing Doubs would lock in draft compensation and avoid a potential headache if he falls down the depth chart during the season.

Minnesota Vikings

The superlative: Most likely to flex on the line of scrimmage

Sometimes, it's difficult to look at what a team did over the offseason and figure out what it was thinking. There's no such problem with the Vikings. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O'Connell had a clear vision, one potentially influenced by the team that won the Super Bowl. If the Eagles are built by investing heavily on their offensive and defensive lines, shouldn't Minnesota emulate them if it wants to get there?

The Vikings already had tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill locked up to big deals on offense, but after years of struggling with inconsistent offensive line play on the interior, the organization went big. It signed center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries away from the Colts. Fries, who missed most of 2024 because of a fractured leg, signed a five-year, $87.7 million deal, landing the fourth-largest full guarantee ($44 million) of any player in free agency. Adofo-Mensah then used his first-round pick and only top-100 selection on guard Donovan Jackson.

Likewise, the Vikings were already heavily invested in their edge rushing rotation between Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and 2024 first-rounder Dallas Turner, who cost them something close to the No. 1 pick in a typical draft between a pair of trades last spring. They spent the offseason rebuilding their rotation on the interior. They signed two well-known veterans who were released by their former teams for cap reasons in former Commanders tackle Jonathan Allen and former 49ers lineman Javon Hargrave. They will combine to make more than $30 million in average annual salary.

There's nothing wrong with wanting to build through the interior, a philosophy that predates the Eagles. I'm intrigued to see what it means for how the Vikings play. In 2024, they had very distinct characteristics. They threw the ball at the second-highest rate of any offense on early downs in neutral game scripts. On defense, coordinator Brian Flores blitzed at the league's highest rate, sending extra rushers at the opposing quarterback more than 39% of the time.

Do these moves hint at changes to those philosophies? With J.J. McCarthy taking over for Sam Darnold at quarterback, will the upgraded offensive line push the Vikings to lean more into the running game, where they added Jordan Mason to help shoulder the workload? And with Stephon Gilmore, Shaquill Griffin and Cam Bynum all leaving the secondary this offseason, will they relieve some of the pressure on their defensive backs by blitzing less often and trusting their strengthened front four to get home on their own?

Minnesota won 14 games last season, so it doesn't need to make massive changes, but the investments the organization made to upgrade the interior of its lines might hint toward a stylistic evolution on both sides of the ball.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

The superlative: Least likely to worry about tomorrow

Some of the worst decisions franchises can make come when the team's incentives aren't aligned with the people who work for the team. Seven years removed from their last winning season and with a quarterback who has all of three career starts under center in Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons should not be all-in. There are reasons to be optimistic about what the future might hold, sure, but they were not one player away this offseason.

General manager Terry Fontenot, though, might have been one player away from having a new job. After the disastrous, virtually inexplicable decision to guarantee Kirk Cousins $90 million in March 2024 and draft Penix a month later, and its natural conclusion with Cousins being benched by the end of his first year in Atlanta, the clock has been ticking on Fontenot's time with the Falcons. With the former Saints executive batting about 1-for-8 (Drake London) on his Day 1 and 2 picks in 2021 and 2022, it seems like Atlanta is treading water. He is only the seventh GM since 2000 to start his career with four losing seasons and get a shot at turning things around in Year 5.

As a result, the Falcons ended up treating 2025 like it was their last chance to fix their longest-running issue. Having ranked 31st or 32nd in sack rate in three of the past four seasons, they took a huge swing on attempting to plug their hole on the edge. After whiffing on first-round picks (Vic Beasley, Takkarist McKinley) and free agent signings (Dante Fowler Jr.) over the past decade, Fontenot and the Falcons used the No. 15 pick on linebacker Jalon Walker, then moved up 11 picks later and sent a 2026 first-rounder to the Rams to grab defender James Pearce Jr.

In one fell swoop, the Falcons might have solved their pass-rushing issues. There's no problem with them taking edge defenders, given that it was both their most obvious need and a premium position that's hard to find in free agency. Walker is a hybrid edge rusher/linebacker who drew some Micah Parsons comparisons before the draft. Pearce led the SEC in sacks in 2023 and racked up 19 takedowns over his final two years in school. You can understand why Raheem Morris and Fontenot wanted to add those guys to their roster.

Cost matters, though! As much as we want to trust the evaluation skills of NFL executives, the reality is that trading up is hardly a guarantee a team will land a successful edge rusher. Vikings fans were thrilled to land a player some regarded as the best defender in the class a year ago when they completed a second trade-up to grab Dallas Turner; he had three sacks and played 300 snaps as a rookie. Trade-ups in the modern draft era for edge rushers in Round 1 have included moves for McKinley, Dion Jordan, Leonard Floyd and Marcus Davenport, none of whom earned second contracts from the teams that took them. Chandler Jones and Montez Sweat were more successful examples, but they were much smaller moves than the one Atlanta made for Pearce.

The biggest trade for an edge rusher in recent drafts was Houston's move for Will Anderson Jr. in 2023, and while that move also included a future first-round pick, the Texans turned things around immediately and have no regrets. A move like that is entirely within the realm of possibility for Pearce and the Falcons, and if he pans out while playing for a team that makes the playoffs in 2025, Fontenot and Morris won't regret dealing their first-rounder in 2026 to get him onboard.

The reality is there are more scenarios in which this doesn't work than ones where it does. History tells us the chances of Pearce having his fifth-year option picked up are somewhere in the 60% range, which is the bare minimum for the deal not being a disaster. Other players will have that option picked up without doing enough to justify a second contract from the team that drafted them, as was the case with Davenport and the Saints. The Falcons might also struggle even with Pearce on the roster, which could end up with them sending a top-10 pick to the Rams next year, making the price even more dramatic.

The Falcons will have needs next year, and the year after that, and the year after that. Compounding future draft capital to get one guy right now is a risky bet that doesn't pay off as often as teams would like. The logic of "If it works, who cares?" sounds great, but it isn't a smart use of resources. Nobody cares if you spent your paycheck on lottery tickets if you win the lottery, but that doesn't mean it's the correct way for you to use what you have.

There are scenarios in which making that sort of plunge makes sense -- going after a potential franchise quarterback or using a small amount of capital to move up a few spots within a round -- but this seems more desperate than calculated.

Carolina Panthers

The superlative: Most likely to have definitely solved their problem this time, for sure

Unlike the Falcons, the Panthers seem insistent on addressing their weak spot every single offseason. Since trading DJ Moore to the Bears as part of the deal for Bryce Young in 2023, Carolina has thrown asset after asset at wide receiver in an attempt to get its young quarterback some playmakers. Its moves for veterans have produced mixed results: Adam Thielen has been a reliably solid option and averaged a team-high 1.9 yards per route run over the past two seasons, but Diontae Johnson's brief run will probably be remembered by only obsessive Immaculate Grid users.

The draft is where the Panthers have focused their efforts. After drafting Jonathan Mingo in 2023, Xavier Legette in 2024 and Tetairoa McMillan last month, they have invested top-40 picks on wide receivers in three consecutive drafts. They're the first team to do that in 20 years, but even they haven't gone to the heights that the 2003-05 Lions did: Detroit used three top-10 picks to add Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams. Two years later, the Lions added a fourth who stuck around slightly longer -- future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson.

The Lions went 1-for-3 at best with those three consecutive picks in the top 10. The Panthers are on pace to go 0-for-2. Mingo was dealt to the Cowboys before the end of his second season. Legette averaged a middling 1.3 yards per route run as a rookie, ranked 134th in ESPN's receiver score and generated 104 receiving yards below what an average receiver would have done with the same targets in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the 17th-worst mark in the league.

It's perfectly reasonable to be patient with Legette and see what he can do in 2025, but it's also realistic to point out he wasn't an impact player as a rookie. His most notable moment was dropping what would have potentially been a winning touchdown reception to beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.

The Panthers will hope McMillan makes more of an instant impact. It's clear they're attempting to build a bully-ball group of receivers by adding Mingo (6-foot-2, 220 pounds), Legette (6-foot-3, 227 pounds) and Jalen Coker (6-foot-3, 213 pounds), an undrafted free agent who arguably outplayed Legette last season. At 6-foot-4, McMillan is another big target for Young. McMillan was consistently able to leverage that frame into making tough catches at Arizona. His massive catch radius and ability to create after bringing in the ball would be huge pluses for the Carolina offense if they translate quickly to the pro level.

One question might be where the Panthers have McMillan play. The 22-year-old has the frame of a classic X receiver, and Carolina still needs to fill that archetype after Mingo failed to pan out. The first-rounder might play better in the slot, though; over his final two college seasons, McMillan averaged 2.2 yards per route run from the outside but a whopping 4.2 yards per route run across 303 routes from the slot. The Panthers relied on Thielen and Coker in the slot a year ago, though, and they were their two most efficient wideouts.

McMillan might be best in a hybrid role where he sees plenty of snaps as a "power slot," but Carolina's need for a classic outside receiver could mean the new addition plays most of his snaps as the X. One of the ways teams get more out of their draft picks is by using them in roles that play to their strengths. McMillan might end up being good enough to thrive anywhere, but the Panthers could be leaving some opportunity on the table if they use their top pick in a traditional role.

New Orleans Saints

The superlative: Most likely to be dragged into the future

Somewhat unwillingly, the Saints can now see a light at the end of their salary cap tunnel. Faced with several bad options, they initially chose to pick up quarterback Derek Carr's option for 2025, converting more than $38 million into a bonus to perform their annual exercise of creating short-term cap space. While concerns about Carr's shoulder arose over the spring, the expectation was that he would be the team's starter next season.

Everything changed earlier this month. Facing an uncertain future, Carr chose to retire, a move that will hand $30 million of the $40 million he was owed for 2025 back to the Saints. If all goes as expected when he officially files retirement paperwork next month, the team would owe just under $56 million in dead money for him, with $19.2 million in 2025 and $36.7 million in 2026.

With Carr and Ryan Ramczyk both officially retiring after June 1 for cap purposes, the Saints will end up with about $25 million in cap space this season. There's not much to spend that on at this point of the offseason, but they should be able to roll the vast majority of that money over into 2026, which will come in handy.

The Saints will be on the hook for just under $49 million in dead money between Carr and Ramczyk next offseason. That's a lot, but they will also have $52.3 million in dead money exiting from their 2024 cap, with the deals of cornerback Marshon Lattimore ($31.7 million) and wide receiver Michael Thomas ($9.2 million) finally coming off the books.

Several New Orleans veterans will also see their deals expire after the 2025 season, with tight end Taysom Hill, linebacker Demario Davis, defensive end Cameron Jordan and safety Tyrann Mathieu all expected to become free agents. While the Saints will no longer be paying those players active salaries, they'll owe an additional $52 million in dead money for them. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them offer zombie extensions to one or more of those players at the end of 2025, mostly so they can retire in a Saints uniform and spread the dead cap hit owed for the remainder of their deals between 2025 and 2026.

If the Saints can spread all four of those dead cap hits over two years and roll over about $25 million, they would have about $33 million in cap space to work with in 2026 without needing to restructure any other deals. That's admittedly a roster that would be down a handful of starters/regular contributors and without any replacements for those players, but that would be the first year in many in which they wouldn't need to go on a restructuring spree with their active players for the sole purpose of getting under the cap. They would have about $5.8 million if they chose to eat all of those dead cap figures in 2026, which would likely require the organization to restructure some veteran deals for defensive end Carl Granderson and running back Alvin Kamara to create enough room to fill out the roster and sign its draft class.

Are the Saints going to be flush with cap space next year? No. With Carr's ill-fated run behind them and a handful of veteran contracts expiring, though, they will look more like the rest of the NFL on their balance sheet in 2026 and have plenty of room in 2027. They'll need that room to rebuild their roster, but the days of the Saints borrowing from the future to pay for the present are seemingly coming to a close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The superlative: Most likely to petition the NFL to use an extra football

I used this one last year for the Texans after they added receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to their roster, but the Bucs are the 2025 example of a team that has many mouths to feed. To start, they brought back every single player who caught a pass or took a handoff last season, short cornerback Tavierre Thomas, who had one carry on a fake punt attempt. That play lost 2 yards, so they technically return 7,043 of the 7,041 rushing and receiving yards they racked up.

That concept even undersells how deep the 2025 Bucs look on paper. Chris Godwin was on pace for a 1,398-yard receiving season when he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 7. He returned to the team after dipping his toes in free agency. Rookie wideout Jalen McMillan flashed in Godwin's absence, and tight end Cade Otton even had a stretch in midseason when he served as Godwin's slot replacement and generated 258 yards and three scores over a three-game span, but the Bucs won't need to rely on either of them after adding wideout Emeka Egbuka with their first-round pick.

None of Tampa's wide receivers or tight ends played a full 17-game slate last season, and perhaps the Egbuka addition is a nod to that experience. While Mike Evans' size and skill set as a vertical receiver is unique, the Bucs don't have to be reliant on any one player on offense. They have the depth to weather injuries and a group of receivers versatile enough to move around the formation and fill any role. Egbuka has received raves for his all-around game and professional readiness, but the Bucs don't need him to be an immediately impactful receiver. They don't need Godwin to hit the ground running after a serious injury. Egbuka might be considered a luxury pick given some of the needs this team had elsewhere on the roster, but if the Bucs have him as their top receiver in midseason instead of Otton and Sterling Shepard, do they beat a Chiefs team that they took to overtime?

And in the big picture, the Egbuka addition immediately had me wondering about Evans' future and whether it's away from Tampa Bay. Godwin signed a three-year, $66 million contract this offseason to return. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who outplayed his salary last season, has his compensation rise from $30 million in 2025 to $40 million in 2026, a figure that would grow larger with a potential extension.

Evans is entering the final season of the two-year, $41 million deal he signed last March. After missing three games, he had just 335 receiving yards through Week 10 before getting hot down the stretch and narrowly topping the 1,000-yard mark for the 11th consecutive season. He finished the season averaging a career-high 2.6 yards per route run and was tied for fourth in ESPN's receiver score.

It's difficult to imagine Evans wearing another team's jersey, in part because so many of the people attending Bucs games are wearing his jersey. Team owners don't like letting go of franchise icons without good reason. When Evans was able to negotiate with teams during the 2024 offseason, there wasn't an enormous market for his services, and Tampa was able to bring him back on a relatively modest deal given his résumé. (Consider that Godwin got a larger average salary coming off a serious ankle injury.) I would be surprised if Evans played elsewhere before retiring, but the Egbuka addition might give the Bucs added leverage if they struggle to come to terms with their star wideout after the 2025 season.

The one key person who isn't coming back to Tampa offense's is Liam Coen, who joined the Jaguars after serving as the Bucs' offensive coordinator in 2024. Coach Todd Bowles & Co. were able to overcome the loss of Dave Canales to the Panthers in 2023 by making a successful hire in Coen, who wasn't impressive in his lone season as the offensive coordinator with the Rams before doing much better in Tampa Bay. The coordinating duties now fall to 34-year-old Josh Grizzard, who has never called plays before and joined the Bucs only last spring. The bar is high for the first-time coordinator, but he certainly won't lack for playmakers in his offense.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals

The superlative: Most likely to make a leap on defense

If an NFL defense could be critically acclaimed without actually playing all that well, it would be the 2023-24 Cardinals. Film nerds have loved watching coach Jonathan Gannon vary up his looks and come up with creative sim pressures every week. Safety Budda Baker seems to be on a quest to touch every possible blade of grass on an NFL field before he retires. Garrett Williams evolved into one of the best slot corners in the league. When this defense was fun, it was eminently watchable.

The problem is the Cardinals didn't really have the juice up front. They were hoping for a breakout Year 2 from BJ Ojulari, only for the edge rusher to miss the entire season because of a torn ACL. They traded for Baron Browning in midseason, but the former Broncos edge rusher was only a part-time contributor. Gannon mixed in defensive backs as pass rushers to try to create protection problems for teams, but when Arizona rushed four front-seven players at opposing quarterbacks, its 28.6% pressure rate ranked 26th. The Cardinals got better as the season went along, but they finished 20th in points allowed per drive and 21st in EPA per play allowed.

Well, they don't want to settle for critically acclaimed in 2025. They added star power this offseason. In addition to re-signing Browning and getting Ojulari back from injury, general manager Monti Ossenfort made a big splash in signing Super Bowl MVP candidate Josh Sweat away from the Eagles. The interior of the defensive line should be much improved with the additions of Dalvin Tomlinson and seemingly ageless wonder Calais Campbell, who was still dominating offensive linemen one-on-one and creating havoc in the backfield as a 38-year-old in Miami last season.

Ossenfort then used his top four draft picks on defensive players. First-rounder Walter Nolen was a one-year wonder at Ole Miss after consistency struggles at Texas A&M, but he and teammate Princely Umanmielen were the first Rebels defensive linemen to be first-team All-SEC since 2021. Second-rounder Will Johnson joins one of the league's youngest cornerback rooms, and while Williams and Max Melton have had some tackling issues, Gannon has done a good job of bringing them along so far.

The Cardinals ranked ninth in EPA per play on offense a year ago, putting them ahead of seven different playoff teams, including the division champion Rams. If Gannon and his new defenders can just propel the defense a tiny bit forward, Arizona should have a real shot at competing for the NFC West crown and making it back into the postseason.

Los Angeles Rams

The superlative: Most likely to cut coupons on defense

I mentioned earlier that the Eagles ranked first in cash spending on offense but 31st in spending on the defense. The only team spending less than the Eagles? The Rams, who are more than $33 million behind the team that took them out of the postseason in 2024. In a league in which the 31 other teams are averaging more than $136 million on their defense, the Rams are spending just over half -- $71 million -- on that side of the ball.

Can they win that way? Just ask the 2024 team. Last season, after the retirement of franchise legend Aaron Donald, the Rams spent just under $49 million on their defenders. The Cowboys ($41.3 million) and Raiders ($38.2 million) each spent less, but as of right now, no team is close to the 2025 Rams for saving money on defense.

Ten of Los Angeles' 12 highest-paid players are on offense, including wideout Tutu Atwell ($10 million) and center Coleman Shelton ($6 million). The Rams imported defensive tackle Poona Ford from the Chargers this offseason; he and cornerback Darious Williams are the only L.A. defenders who project to make more than $5 million this year. The Rams defender with the highest cap hit? Donald, who retired over a year ago; the Rams are on the hook for the remaining $9.7 million in dead money from his deal in 2025.

Of course, the Rams don't have to spend a lot because they have a promising group of players on rookie deals. Jared Verse was one of the league's most physically overpowering defenders as a rookie, barreling through even some of the biggest linemen with heavy hands and raw power. (Ask Mekhi Becton.) Fellow edge rusher Byron Young wasn't far behind, while Braden Fiske might still be appearing in Geno Smith's dreams after he tore through the Seahawks' offensive line.

General manager Les Snead is very comfortable walking away from players and trusting in his ability to find talent through the draft, and the Rams have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt after their success over the past decade. Having lost starters along their front seven, including Michael Hoecht, Christian Rozeboom and Bobby Brown over the offseason, I'll admit that I wonder whether they could have been a little more aggressive in adding some depth or an upgrade at inside linebacker. It wouldn't be a surprise if they added a player or two after June 1, although it's unlikely to move the financial needle all that much.

The Eagles and Rams are two of the most widely admired organizations; it's fascinating to see where they've chosen to put their dollars.

San Francisco 49ers

The superlative: Least likely to use the word "rebuild"

The 49ers aren't in a position where they can afford to truly rebuild. They have a core of stars who are either in the prime of their careers or on their way down from lofty peaks. They have a half-dozen players who can expect to be considered as the best players at their respective positions in any given season, and while they're coming off a disappointing campaign, they are one year removed from a narrow loss in the Super Bowl.

A rebuild wasn't going to be realistic, but amid the wreckage of a 6-11 season, a missing handful of cost-controlled draft picks from the trades for quarterback Trey Lance and running back Christian McCaffrey, and the specter of a coming extension for Brock Purdy, the 49ers had to retool. There needed to be a coherent vision around where the team was willing to cut costs, which players they would keep and what their roster construction would look like after a massive raise for their starting quarterback.

Perhaps acknowledging that the 2024 version of the team was flawed, the 49ers leaned into the retooling. They either released or failed to re-sign eight players who signed contracts worth at least $10 million per season with other teams in free agency, three more than any other team. That doesn't include Deebo Samuel, whom they traded to the Commanders for cap relief. While the Niners signed 12 free agents of their own, the most expensive addition general manager John Lynch made was blocking tight end Luke Farrell, who signed a three-year deal with an average salary of just over $5 million.

Some of the money the 49ers spent went to their own players. They gave new deals to tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner, but the biggest contract unsurprisingly went to Purdy. Given the circumstances, I thought they got a pretty good deal. My expectation was that Purdy would try to build off Dak Prescott's contract, which was for $60 million per season. Factoring in the rise in the salary cap and the fact that Purdy is younger and has been more productive than his Cowboys counterpart, a $65 million average salary seemed reasonable. Instead, the 49ers got it done for $53 million per year, a figure that comes in below just about every other second multiyear contract for passers over the past five years after adjusting for cap inflation:

Brock Purdy's average salary on his new deal ($53 million) amounts to 19% of the current salary cap ($279.2 million). Here's a list of guys since 2020 who have signed multi-year extensions as their second contracts, the percentage of the cap their deals represented at the time,...

The biggest addition for the 49ers might have come off the field. Robert Saleh was widely heralded as one of the league's best defensive coaches when he left San Francisco to take over as head coach of the Jets, and while DeMeco Ryans did an admirable job behind Saleh before landing the Texans' head coaching job, Steve Wilks and Nick Sorensen were one-and-done in back-to-back seasons. It's telling that the Jets' defense fell apart immediately after Saleh was fired last season.

Saleh's calling card between his time in San Francisco and New York was getting more out of players than anyone expected. It's one thing to bring through top-five picks such as defensive end Nick Bosa and cornerback Sauce Gardner, but Saleh helped mold Warner, defensive tackle D.J. Jones and linebacker Dre Greenlaw into standouts in San Francisco, then did the same with the Jets for unheralded veterans such as defensive end John Franklin-Myers, linebacker Quincy Williams and cornerback D.J. Reed.

Having shed salary and talent on defense this offseason, the 49ers need Saleh to work his magic quickly and make the most out of the players around Bosa and Warner. Lynch used all four of his top-100 picks on defensive players, and Saleh will be expected to integrate them into the lineup, with the most important addition being toolsy first-round pick Mykel Williams at edge. Veteran defensive backs Tre Brown and Richie Grant, occasional starters elsewhere, might be called on for more regular snaps.

The difference between retooling and rebuilding is that while doing the former, a team expects to continue contending. The 49ers can't afford to take a year off with so many of their core players approaching or past 30 years old, and they'll look to a pair of NFC rivals for hope. The 2021 Eagles were supposed to be in a transitional year after they went 4-11-1 and moved on from Carson Wentz, but they went 9-8 and made it to the playoffs before advancing to two Super Bowls in three years. And the Rams looked to have fallen off quickly from their Super Bowl win with a 5-12 season in 2022, but the additions of wideout Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams in the draft helped them jump back to 10-7 and a NFC wild-card spot in 2023. The 49ers hope they're the next in line for an instant turnaround.

Seattle Seahawks

The superlative: Most likely to believe in their own draft picks

It's clear general manager John Schneider was not happy with the Seahawks' offense in 2024. Neither were many Seahawks fans. Schneider fired coordinator Ryan Grubb. Fans were mostly fine with that. He traded away wideout DK Metcalf. That one was less popular, but sure. Then receiver Tyler Lockett followed him out the door, which was sad, and Geno Smith went with them, which was stunning, given that coach Mike Macdonald had just endorsed Smith as the team's long-term quarterback starter.

Quarterback Sam Darnold and wideouts Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling came in as replacements, and the Seahawks hired former Saints coordinator Klint Kubiak to take over for Grubb, but there was a silver lining to all the change. By saving money at quarterback and receiver and racking up extra draft capital though trades, Schneider was creating cash and draft capital to address what had been a porous offensive line. Seattle wasn't going to have a great line in 2025, but significant fresh blood was needed.

What about one guy? The Seahawks cut veteran Laken Tomlinson and will replace him with first-round pick Grey Zabel. Using a first-round pick on a lineman is one significant investment and counts for something, but the influx of linemen we saw with other teams as they rebuilt their lines never arrived in Seattle. The only other additions were sixth-round pick Bryce Cabeldue and journeyman Josh Jones, who played only 46 snaps for the Ravens last season and will be on his fourth team in four years.

That means a lot more of the Seahawks linemen you saw in 2024 will be back on the field in 2025. Oft-injured tackle Abraham Lucas is the projected starter on the right side. Anthony Bradford, Christian Haynes and Sataoa Laumea, none of whom looked up to the task of being NFL starters a year ago, will be in the mix for the other guard spot. Nobody was added to push Olu Oluwatimi at center. In 2024, the line allowed quick pressures on 18.8% of Smith's dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the second-highest rate of pressure on any regular starter around the league. Instead of cycling out the line, Schneider appeared to prefer swapping out the quarterback and most of the receivers instead.

It's clear the longtime Seahawks GM believes the players he has on the roster, almost all of whom are his draft picks, will improve. Some of that might be a product of a schematic shift. The Seahawks were a passive, dropback-heavy offense under Grubb. Kubiak should get them on the move more often and create more uncertainty for opposing defensive linemen to prevent rushers from pinning their ears back to go after the quarterback.

Seahawks fans will need to hope Schneider is right, because the impact on Darnold could be devastating. Even during his resurgent 2024 season, his biggest weakness was his propensity for taking sacks, highlighted by a brutal end to the season in an ugly playoff loss to the Rams. Darnold ranked seventh in the league in QBR from a clean pocket, but when opposing teams got pressure on him, that dropped to 22nd. Since the start of 2018, his 17.2 QBR when pressured ranks 34th out of 50 quarterbacks with 900 dropbacks.

If Schneider and the Seahawks want to get the version of Darnold who shocked the world for stretches in 2024, they'll need the linemen who couldn't protect Smith in 2024 to improve.