MLB mock draft 3.0: Kiley McDaniel predicts the first two rounds

The 2025 MLB draft starts Sunday, so let's project how the first round could play out this weekend with my mock draft 3.0.

The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.

In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU's Kade Anderson, Tennessee's Liam Doyle and Florida State's Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.

Which direction will the Nationals go -- and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?

This is my next-to-last mock draft of the 2025 draft cycle, with an updated 3.1 version coming hours before Round 1 begins Sunday. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I'd pick the players.

More coverage: Mock draft 2.0 | Big question for all 30 teams

Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN

1. Washington Nationals

Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1

There is a lot of uncertainty at this pick after the firing of GM Mike Rizzo. The effect, if you believe the buzz in the industry, is that Anderson is now a little more likely to be the pick. I think it stands at about a 55% chance it will be Anderson, 35% for Ethan Holliday and 10% for Eli Willits/others.

Willits and maybe Liam Doyle seem to be the leading cut-rate options rather than prep ace Seth Hernandez, which may be another effect of interim GM Mike DeBartolo rather than Rizzo being at the helm.

2. Los Angeles Angels

Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6

Doyle has been tied here for a while, and with good reason: He would probably take a below-slot deal and he is a strong candidate to be first player to the big leagues in this entire class. Given his dominating fastball, he could get big league hitters out right now, and the Angels may be aggressive and let him do just that, then see if they can make him a long-term starter.

Kade Anderson seems like the top guy on the Angels' board, though, and thus would probably be the pick here if he doesn't go No. 1. In this scenario, I think this decision will come down to Doyle, Jamie Arnold or bigger cut versus slot in Ike Irish. I give Doyle the slight edge.

The Angels love Daniel Pierce but likely can't land him. Keep an eye on Mason Pike and Sam Horn as the starter targets along with basically any college arm with reliever risk at later picks: Brian Curley, Cade Obermueller, Chase Shores, Tanner Franklin, A.J. Russell, Lucas Kelly and Mason Morris.

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Liam Doyle's MLB draft profile

Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee's Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year's MLB draft.

3. Seattle Mariners

Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4

The tide seems to be turning with the Mariners now good with taking Hernandez here, despite the spotty outcomes of prep righties in the draft, after canvassing a wide group of players.

Jamie Arnold would be the runner-up and I think Kade Anderson is the top player on their board, so those three are the main targets. Ike Irish, Aiva Arquette, Liam Doyle and JoJo Parker seem to be the secondary options, I believe in that order.

Keep an eye on Lucas Kelly, Josh Flores and Jake Munroe at later picks.

4. Colorado Rockies

Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2

It has been long rumored, maybe since the night of the draft lottery at the MLB winter meetings, that Holliday wouldn't get past this pick, both because of team preference and his father Matt's history in Colorado.

If Holliday doesn't go No. 1 to the Nationals, this is very likely his landing spot -- and I wouldn't be surprised if he got the biggest bonus in this draft and the biggest bonus in this draft era to engineer this outcome for the Rockies.

If Holliday does go No. 1 overall, Kade Anderson and Jamie Arnold are believed to be the other main options here, likely in that order. If all three of those players go ahead of the Rockies, I think it would be Kyson Witherspoon or possibly Aiva Arquette as the pick.

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Ethan Holliday's MLB draft profile

Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year's MLB draft.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3

I think the Cardinals' board looks quite similar to mine, with Kade Anderson and Ethan Holliday in the top two spots, then Willits third. I think he'll be the pick here in this scenario, but the other primary options would be a near coin flip with Jamie Arnold, or a slight cut with Ike Irish.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9

It sounds like the Pirates will take Seth Hernandez here, if he doesn't go No. 3 to the Mariners. As a secondary plan, I think Pittsburgh is leaning toward a college hitter. Arquette has been mentioned here for months, with Ike Irish as the alternative, and pitcher Jamie Arnold another target if he gets here.

7. Miami Marlins

JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7

I think Miami is looking to land Eli Willits and has Parker as a backup option with Jamie Arnold as a target if he slips. I'll lean Parker over Arnold here but I think, in this scenario, those two players go in these next two picks in some order. Billy Carlson, Ike Irish and Andrew Fischer seem like the other backup options.

Keep an eye on Mason Pike, Will Rhine and Hunter Allen at later picks.

8. Toronto Blue Jays

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5

Arnold entered the year as the top prospect on my board but was hit a little harder than expected, so the takes from teams vary a bit more than you'd expect. Like I said above, I think JoJo Parker and Arnold go back-to-back in this scenario, but Arnold has a real chance to go No. 2 or No. 3. Ike Irish and Kyson Witherspoon are secondary options.

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Jamie Arnold's MLB draft profile

Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State's Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year's MLB draft.

9. Cincinnati Reds

Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 11

Irish is going to go around here, but I'll admit I'm not sure who the Reds go with here in the event Seth Hernandez and Liam Doyle aren't available.

Steele Hall, Billy Carlson and Kyson Witherspoon are the other leading options connected here while Josh Hammond is a longer shot and JoJo Parker is connected but also off the board in this scenario.

Keep an eye on Evan Hankins at a later pick.

10. Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8

Carlson is in play to varying degrees at most picks starting around No. 5, with a floor around No. 12 and hot spots from 8 to 10, so this is right around what he should be expecting.

The White Sox may be the highest on JoJo Parker and his brother Jacob, but I don't think they can get JoJo down to their pick. Steele Hall, Josh Hammond and Gavin Fien are also tied here in a very prep hitter-heavy mix, with prep LHP Kruz Schoolcraft a long shot/later overpay possibility.

Keep an eye on Gavin Turley and Mason Ligenza at later picks.

11. Athletics

Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10

Like the Reds, I have some names tied to the A's pick, but this is about the point where the draft is much harder to predict. I think the A's are leaning toward pitching, and Witherspoon's floor is right around here so he represents a nice value.

I do think this is likely to be a college player, and Brendan Summerhill, Wehiwa Aloy and Gavin Fien (the A's drafted his older brother Dylan last year) have been mentioned here all spring.

Keep an eye on Jase Mitchell, Micah Bucknam and Tanner Franklin at later picks.

12. Texas Rangers

Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13

I think this is where Billy Carlson definitely stops if he slides. Hall seems like the next target, with Gavin Fien also mentioned, so it seems likely to be a prep position player.

Keep an eye on Talon Haley, Mason Pike, Josh Owens and Micah Bucknam at later picks.

13. San Francisco Giants

Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14

I think this pick feels like a lefty hitter from the college ranks (like last year's pick James Tibbs). Whether that is Summerhill, this spot being the floor for Ike Irish, and a possible high point for Andrew Fischer or Charles Davalan.

Keep an eye on Will Rhine and Taitn Gray at later picks.

14. Tampa Bay Rays

Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
Rank: 31

The Rays still have two extra picks on top of the allotted three on Day 1, even after trading one away for reliever Bryan Baker on Thursday. I think their primary targets here are Billy Carlson and Steele Hall, but they both aren't available in this scenario, so the Rays may try another Xavier Isaac gambit: taking a guy they really like who likely won't be available by their next pick and isn't expected to go this high, then banking some savings and spreading it around to other picks.

I have the Rays tied to a number of prep position players for later picks and it seems like this strategy would land them at least one more of those than they'd get if they played this pick straight, maybe with Josh Hammond or similarly named prospects Gavin Fien or Gavin Kilen, three other players the Rays have interest in.

Keep an eye on Dean Moss, Matthew Fisher, Taitn Gray, Sean Gamble, Landon Harmon, Brady Ebel and Brisen Tweedy at later picks.

15. Boston Red Sox

Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12

Fien has a good chance to land here, as long rumored. I think he's underrated due to uneven spring after he was one of the better hitters on the summer circuit. Xavier Neyens and Gavin Kilen (who the Red Sox almost signed out of high school) have also been connected here.

16. Minnesota Twins

Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20

We're now pretty securely in the realm of making educated guesses based on a team's history and what other teams think they'll do. Minnesota likes this sort of player, a medium-tools, medium-framed college infielder with a strong performance record (Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kyle DeBarge, Tanner Schobel, Kaelen Culpepper just in the top three rounds of the past three drafts).

I think this is about where Gage Wood comes into play, a little lower than some fans may expect, due to some concerns about his shoulder issue earlier this spring and a possible relief fit long term. Caden Bodine, Tyler Bremner and Marek Houston are also mentioned here.

17. Chicago Cubs

Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17

The Cubs lean toward exit velos/athleticism when it comes to high schoolers and Hammond is one of the better examples in the class. This is right about the middle of his range, along with Xavier Neyens, a similar, left-handed version of Hammond who is also connected to the Cubs. Arkansas teammates Wehiwa Aloy and Gage Wood are also mentioned here along with Tyler Bremner.

Keep an eye on Cooper Flemming, Josh Flores and Jake Munroe at later picks.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks

Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23

Rumors are picking up that Bodine will be the pick here (if available) to then set up some prep picks afterward. Josh Hammond, Tate Southisene and Slater de Brun are the leading targets from that group at this pick and the next one.

19. Baltimore Orioles

Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15

After Thursday's trade for another comp pick, giving Baltimore three total, this pick is a little more likely to be a slot-or-below college player as the O's likely collect high school players down the board unless they can float a premium talent to this pick.

Aloy fits the Orioles' tendencies and is a nice value here. I think they're targeting Jaden Fauske, Dax Kilby, Tate Southisene and Xavier Neyens at those comp picks and then Mason Ligenza, Will Rhine and Ethan Rogers after that.

20. Milwaukee Brewers

Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22

I have the Brew Crew tied to three shortstops here: Daniel Pierce, Coy James and Houston. James seems like he'll go in the comp round and would be the curveball pick of the first round, like Milwaukee pulled last year in taking Braylon Payne. This is about the middle of the ranges for Pierce and Houston.

21. Houston Astros

Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21

Houston is tied to mostly power-over-hit prospects with standout athletic testing here like Xavier Neyens, Tate Southisene and Wehiwa Aloy. Charles Davalan and Slater de Brun are two players who don't fit in that bucket that the Astros are also on.

Keep an eye on Jase Mitchell, Matt Ferrara, Matt Miura, C.J. Hughes, Josh Flores and Tyler Finkbeiner at later picks.

22. Atlanta Braves

Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18

Bremner is in the mix for some teams picking ahead of here, but I think this is his likely stopping point. Gage Wood, Marek Houston, Tate Southisene, Josh Hammond and Daniel Pierce also get mentioned here.

Keep an eye on Ty Peeples, Jaiden LoRe and Micah Bucknam at later picks.

23. Kansas City Royals

Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16

This would be the floor for Josh Hammond if he got this far and seems like it will be a solid landing spot for Wood, likely paired with a high school player at Kansas City's next pick at No. 28.

24. Detroit Tigers

Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19

I think Detroit takes a high school prospect with at least one if not both of its first two picks, here and No. 34 overall. Coy James could also be a surprise pick here, just like Milwaukee's first-round pick, but I think it's more likely one of them takes James in the comp round.

Jaden Fauske (gone in this scenario), Aaron Watson, Dax Kilby, Kayson Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Tate Southisene and Cooper Flemming are tied to Detroit's first two picks from the high school side. Andrew Fischer, Anthony Eyanson and J.B. Middleton are college players tied to these two picks.

25. San Diego Padres

Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Rank: 36

The Padres love to swing for upside and are tied to names who fit that this year, with Young the most extreme version. He has 80-grade power projection and an infield fit, but big questions about his contact ability.

Kruz Schoolcraft, Kayson Cunningham, Dax Kilby, Josh Owens and Slater de Brun is my best guess at the order they have their other primary high school targets ranked. Anthony Eyanson, A.J. Russell and Ethan Conrad are college players still available here that the Pads have some interest in picking.

Keep an eye on Will Rhine, Angel Laya, Dixon Williams and Josh Tate at later picks.

26. Philadelphia Phillies

Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
Rank: 44

This one would be another curveball, but the Phillies likely can't get Fisher to their second pick and would be set up for an overslot move at their next pick(s), similar to what they did last year. Andrew Fischer is also mentioned here. Alec Blair (a top 100 basketball recruit in the country) and Sean Gamble are among the prep position players they could target to move down the board.

27. Cleveland Guardians

Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37

The Guardians are hard to read here and could be going underslot with a college player, like Kane Kepley, Devin Taylor or Andrew Fischer, to set up a spending bonanza down the board with their extra picks. Aaron Watson and Dax Kilby are other prep targets who won't make it to their next picks.

Keep an eye on Miguel Sime Jr., Jase Mitchell, Cade Crossland and Luke Hill at later picks.

28. Kansas City Royals

Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
Rank: 32

Watson is one of many prep arms tied to the Royals, like Matthew Fisher (if still on the board), and Watson should go in the next few picks if he isn't the pick here. Anthony Eyanson is also a hot name here. Tate Southisene, Angel Cervantes and Malachi Witherspoon are also connected to the Royals.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks

Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
Rank: 34

Tate Southisene (picked 27th in this scenario), de Brun and Kayson Cunningham are the primary targets here, particularly if the Diamondbacks take a college player with their first pick, and Arizona should get one of them here.

He'll be a tough sign, but keep an eye on Ryan Mitchell at a later pick -- or possibly even here if their board blows up.

30. Baltimore Orioles

Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
Rank: 26

Neyens is a threat to go in the teens or early 20s, but the Orioles' bonus pool muscle should be able to enable them to float him down to this pick.

31. Baltimore Orioles

Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Rank: 24

Fischer could go much higher, but should find a home right around here if he's still on the board.

32. Milwaukee Brewers

Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25

This is great value for the Brewers, which is what they do more often than almost any other team. There are some spots above here, like Detroit, Philly, Arizona and San Diego, that Cunningham could go, with a floor around here, so Milwaukee might need to go overslot to get Cunningham down here.

Jaden Fauske (gone in this scenario), Coy James, Charles Davalan, Devin Taylor and Cooper Flemming are all mentioned with the Brewers at this pick. The Brewers are tied to a number of players down the board: Blaine Bullard, Luke Hill, Brady Ebel, Remo Indomenico, C.J. Hughes, Tyler Finkbeiner and Brisen Tweedy.

33. Boston Red Sox

Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
Rank: 40

Dax Kilby, Michael Oliveto and Xavier Neyens could all land here as well.

Keep an eye on Kaleb Wing and Peter Mershon at later picks.

34. Detroit Tigers

Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69

I think this is the most likely landing spot for James. Dax Kilby, Cooper Flemming, Anthony Eyanson and J.B. Middleton are all left from the list mentioned at their earlier pick.

Keep an eye on Jake Munroe, Caleb Leys, Jaiden LoRe and Ethan Rogers at later picks.

35. Seattle Mariners

Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Rank: 48

Root is in play at a bunch of spots in the 20s and 30s and likely goes by 40 if he lasts past this pick. Max Belyeu and Patrick Forbes are also mentioned here. If the Mariners want to take three pitchers with their first three picks, there's a shot Malachi Witherspoon is still there in the second round.

36. Minnesota Twins

Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
Rank: 39

Taylor's floor seems to be the Mets' two picks after this, so this is a nice value for Minnesota. Michael Oliveto and Charles Davalan are other targets still on the board, while Xavier Neyens and Jaden Fauske are gone in this scenario.

Keep an eye on a potential overpay at a later pick in Ty Peeples.

37. Baltimore Orioles

Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Rank: 28

I think the bulk of potential targets in the comp and second rounds was part of the Orioles' motivation to add this pick from the Rays. Kilby's floor is in a couple of picks, so this is another nice value.

Keep an eye on Landyn Vidourek at a later pick.

38. New York Mets

Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
Rank: 33

Forbes has interest all through the 20s and 30s and likely goes by the end of the comp round. Devin Taylor, Zach Root and Marcus Phillips aren't available but also fit here. J.B. Middleton would seem to be the runner-up.

Keep an eye on Tanner Franklin, Josh Flores and Wyatt Vincent at later picks.

39. New York Yankees

J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
Rank: 42

This would be the floor for Andrew Fischer and likely Dax Kilby. Max Belyeu, Michael Oliveto and A.J. Russell are some other targets who are possibilities here, as are collegiates who go right after this in Anthony Eyanson, Charles Davalan and Malachi Witherspoon.

Keep an eye on Ethan Rogers, Matt Ferrara and Sam Horn at later picks.

40. Los Angeles Dodgers

Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
Rank: 27

There's a rumor that if both are on the board, the Dodgers will take Jack Bauer and Quentin Young at these two picks -- literally the two highest ceiling players in the draft. For entertainment's sake, I hope that happens.

Because Young was picked earlier in this projection (as were L.A. targets Coy James, Marcus Phillips, Aaron Watson and J.B. Middleton), Cannarella fits and has been mentioned here much of the spring. Max Belyeu and Charles Davalan will go soon if they aren't taken here. Kruz Schoolcraft is another high upside prep player the Dodgers are on.

Keep an eye on James Ellwanger, Shane Sdao and Mason Ligenza as targets at later picks.

41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
43. Miami Marlins: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
48. Athletics: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
49. Washington Nationals: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
64. Cleveland Guardians: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Aidan West, SS, Long Reach HS (MD)
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
69. Baltimore Orioles: Korbyn Dickerson, CF, Indiana
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: James Quinn-Irons, CF, George Mason
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss