Michigan at Ohio State betting guide: Why defenses could dominate

4 days ago 12

Pamela Maldonado, Sports Betting AnalystNov 29, 2024, 10:00 AM ET
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Not as much will be on the line when the Michigan Wolverines (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) visit the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 7-1) on Saturday, but the rivalry remains as intense as ever.

Revenge will be on the mind of the Buckeyes, who have lost three in a row in the series, with each loss keeping them out of the Big Ten championship game. They had won eight straight in the series before the recent skid.

The defending champion Wolverines, who just became bowl eligible last week, come into The Game unranked for the first time since 2017. Meanwhile, Ohio State comes is the second-ranked team in the nation and is the national championship favorite at +260.

The Buckeyes' last win at The Horseshoe in the matchup came in 2018.

Saturday's 120th meeting between the Big Ten rivals kicks off at Noon ET on Fox.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Ohio State -21
Moneyline: Ohio State -2500, Michigan +1100
Over/under: 42.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

First-half spread: Ohio State -11.5 (-110), Michigan +11.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Ohio State -1400, Michigan +700
First-half total points: 23.5 (Over -Even/Under -120)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Ohio State 91.9% chance to win

Maldonado's pick: Michigan-Ohio State UNDER 42.5

The battle in the trenches. Two elite defenses. One storied rivalry. This Michigan-Ohio State showdown is primed to be a defensive masterclass, with both teams flexing their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage and disrupt offensive rhythm.

Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has been dialing up creative blitz packages and simulated pressures all season, unleashing chaos on opposing offenses. In their game with Indiana, the Buckeyes' innovative 3-2-6 defensive scheme kept the Hoosiers guessing and produced five sacks and a forced fumble. This pre-snap deception and post-snap transformation limited Indiana to 153 total yards, highlighting the Buckeyes' ability to control games with their defense.

Michigan's defensive front has been equally impressive. The Wolverines' front seven has been relentless, boasting the highest-graded pass rush in the country by PFF. In their matchup with Indiana, the Wolverines pressured quarterback Kurtis Rourke on an eye-popping 62% of his dropbacks, smothering the Hoosiers' passing attack. The result? Four sacks, eight tackles for loss and an interception, disrupting Indiana's offensive game plan and forcing the Hoosiers into difficult situations.

Keep your eyes on Cody Simon, the Buckeyes' linebacker who had 2.5 sacks, 10 tackles, and a forced fumble in his last outing. For Michigan, defenders Jaishawn Barham and TJ Guy have been dominant forces, combining for three sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss against Indiana, a testament to the Wolverines' ability to control the backfield.

Both defenses excel at neutralizing big plays and limiting scoring production, especially Ohio State, which ranks sixth in opponent yards per completion and leads in both touchdowns and red zone touchdowns allowed, giving up just 13 total touchdown scores in 11 games and just four from outside the red zone.

Expect sacks, turnovers and limited scoring opportunities in a classic Big Ten defensive battle. With both teams wielding their defensive swords, this one feels destined to stay under the total in what should be a gritty, hard-fought game worthy of one of college football's greatest rivalries.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

The current spread of 20.5 ties the second-largest spread in this rivalry since 1978 (largest since 2014).
Michigan would be the third national champion to be a 20-point underdog at any point the following season since 1978 (2011 Auburn, 2020 LSU).
The over has hit in 10 straight meetings between these teams.
Michigan is 12-5 ATS on the road since 2021 (seventh-best in FBS over that span).
Michigan has covered in each of its past three meetings against Ohio State. The last team to cover in four straight in this series was Ohio State from 1986-89.
Ohio State is 13-0 SU at home over the last two seasons. The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS over that span (T-7th in FBS).