Tristan H. Cockcroft
Oct 29, 2025, 09:08 AM ET
Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a more fair approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it's unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (at Pittsburgh Steelers). "Indiana Jones" has lived up to his hero billing, scoring 22-plus fantasy points in each of the past three weeks, and five times for the season. He never did either of those things in any of his six seasons with the New York Giants. Now Jones faces a Steelers team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (21.3), including 25-plus to Joe Flacco and Jordan Love the past two weeks. Outside of the big three of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (when healthy), there isn't another quarterback I'd start ahead of Jones this week.
Others to like: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Dallas Cowboys); Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (at Cincinnati Bengals).
Matchup to avoid: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Houston Texans). Before we get carried away with the extent of his 2025 growth, consider that his 58.7 Total QBR ranks 17th among 33 qualifiers, and he has faced one of the easiest schedules of anyone at the position (his opponents have averaged 18.5 points fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks). Nix hasn't been quite as shiny a star as perceived. This week brings Nix's toughest matchup, as the Texans are the league's No. 1 defense against quarterbacks for the season, going by fantasy points allowed per game (10.5), adjusted FPA (minus-5.1) and fantasy points per pass attempt (0.31).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Bam Knight, Cardinals (at Cowboys). Michael Carter's release, however short-lived, signals Knight's firm status atop the depth chart. Knight paced the Cardinals' backfield in snap rate, rushing attempts, total touches and fantasy points in each of the team's two games leading up to their Week 8 bye, making him an ideal, matchups-based pickup in the more than 80% of ESPN leagues in which he began the week available. For the season, the opposing Cowboys have afforded running backs the second-most fantasy points per game (28.4), adjusted FPA (6.2) and explosive runs (27), and the third-most double-digit fantasy performances (9).
Others to like: D'Andre Swift, Bears (at Bengals); Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (at Tennessee Titans).
Matchup to avoid: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (at Los Angeles Rams). Now 30 years old, Kamara is in the midst of his most disappointing NFL season. He has rushed for 84 fewer yards than expected and is averaging a career-low 11.6 mph on rushing attempts, per Next Gen Stats, and he has been held beneath 13 fantasy points in each of his past six games. Things probably won't get much better for Kamara against the Rams, one of the league's best-performing defenses. They have afforded running backs only one 15-point fantasy performance (Christian McCaffrey, 27.9 in Week 5), as well as a league-low 0.38 fantasy points per carry.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: DK Metcalf, Steelers (vs. Colts). Over the past three weeks, he has emerged as Aaron Rodgers' go-to wide receiver, posting a 22% target share, three end zone targets and 44.0 fantasy points. While it would be nice to see Metcalf's usage return to his 2021-23 peak levels, he's getting enough targets to capitalize upon favorable matchups like this one. The opposing Colts have had seven wide receivers score 15-plus fantasy points, three in the past two weeks alone. In those two games, cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards surrendered a combined 49.7 points on 25 targets as the nearest defender.
Others to like: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (at Steelers); Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (at Cowboys); Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers).
Matchup to avoid: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (at Texans). Pat Surtain II's pectoral injury, which will cost him at least two games, softens Texans wide receiver Nico Collins' matchup in this game, leaving Sutton as the receiver aligned for the toughest assignment in that matchup. Only twice all season has a wide receiver scored 13 or more fantasy points against the Texans (Puka Nacua, 23.1 in Week 1; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 26.3 in Week 7), and even when including those two, teams' No. 1 wideouts have averaged only 13.5 points against them.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons (at New England Patriots). We'll see whether Michael Penix Jr. (knee) is able to return for Week 9, but even if Kirk Cousins is forced to make a second consecutive start, Pitts' 27% target rate when Cousins is his quarterback -- it's 20% when Penix is under center -- offers encouragement that he'll get enough work to capitalize upon the favorable matchup. The Patriots have had six tight ends score at least 11 fantasy points against them, second most in the league behind the Cincinnati Bengals (7).
Matchup to avoid: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Buffalo Bills). He's coming off a Monday night game in which he set season bests in fantasy points (21.9), targets per route (29.2%) and average depth of target (7.6 yards), trends that make Kelce look like a must-start. This matchup shifts in the extreme, opposite direction, as the Bills are the only team to have not had a single tight end score as many as eight points in a game. The Bills also contained Kelce in both of their 2024 matchups, holding him to 2.8 points in Week 11 and 3.9 in the AFC Championship Game.
