Tristan H. Cockcroft
Dec 12, 2024, 06:53 AM ET
Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (versus New England Patriots). Better defenses have given Murray trouble this season, as he has averaged 14.0 fantasy points against the eight toughest defenses against quarterbacks using seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, but the Patriots are hardly one of those. They've seen three consecutive quarterbacks exceed 21 fantasy points against them, including most recently the similarly mobile Anthony Richardson (21.16 points, Week 13). It begins what's an outstanding series of fantasy-playoffs matchups for Murray, as every one of his Weeks 15-17 opponents (NE, @CAR, @LAR) ranks among the nine worst in Adjusted FPA to quarterbacks for the season.
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). He's a tough player to sit, as the No. 4 quarterback in fantasy points for the season (21.7 weekly average), but if you roster Hurts, be forewarned that he has a steeper downside than usual this week. The Steelers are the only defense to have not seen a single quarterback score 20 fantasy points against them, and a mere four, tied for the league's fewest, have reached 15. Worse yet, they've faced four of the league's top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points scored on rushing plays -- Hurts leads that list -- and limited that group to 9.3 points per game, and 10.6 if excluding Richardson, who left the teams' Week 4 matchup early due to injury.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (at New Orleans Saints). Though he hasn't been seeing the lofty snap counts recently that he did before a knee injury cost him Week 6 and a hamstring injury Weeks 9 and 10, Robinson's 45% snap rate and 17.9 PPR fantasy points last week certainly pointed him in the right direction in terms of usage. He'll again be the Commanders' lead back, with Austin Ekeler (concussion) on injured reserve, and draws one of the position's most favorable matchups. The Saints have seen a running back reach 18 points against them in four of their past five games, and their 0.80 points per rushing attempt allowed to running backs is the most in the league.
0:32
Is Rico Dowdle a top-20 fantasy RB the rest of the season?
Field Yates and Daniel Dopp break down Rico Dowdle's fantasy outlook for the rest of the season.
Others to like:
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (versus Cincinnati Bengals)
Matchup to avoid: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (at Detroit Lions). Josh Jacobs' 24.6 PPR fantasy point performance against the Lions in Week 14, one of only three times all season that a running back scored as many as 20 points against them, was a bit of an anomaly, driven by three touchdown conversions among his five goal-to-go rushing attempts. For the season, the Lions have seen only 15 rushing goal-to-go plays, third-fewest in the league, and only nine fantasy performances worth 10 points. As Cook is a touchdown-dependent player -- they account for 37% of his fantasy production, second-most among full-time running backs --- he's a steep-downside play.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Atlanta Falcons). He has seen double-digit targets in three straight games, during which time he has averaged 17.2 PPR fantasy points, and that hefty workload isn't likely to shift even if Desmond Ridder is needed to start at quarterback. Meyers' matchup against the Falcons only props him up further as a fantasy WR2. The Falcons have utterly collapsed against wide receivers over the past five weeks, surrendering seven games worth 11-plus points during that time, including a pair of 30-point scores to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14. For the season, they've allowed a league-most 2.08 points per target to the position.
0:51
Dopp: Jauan Jennings clearly the top WR in 49ers' offense
Stephania Bell and Daniel Dopp analyze the rise of Jauan Jennings in the 49ers' offense.
Others to like:
Calvin Ridley, Titans (versus Bengals)
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (versus Los Angeles Rams)
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (versus Kansas City Chiefs)
1:47
Yates: Volume for A.J. Brown has not been good enough
Field Yates discusses A.J. Brown's struggles over the past few weeks.
Matchup to avoid: A.J. Brown, Eagles (versus Steelers). Steelers cornerback Joey Porter, who is most likely to align across from Brown this week, has been one of the toughest players in coverage. Per Next Gen Stats, Porter hasn't allowed a touchdown when the nearest defender, and receivers have only a 58% catch rate against him. It's no surprise, therefore, that the Steelers have the league's fewest Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (minus-3.6) against opposing No. 1 wide receivers for the season. Brown, who has averaged only 5.9 targets the past eight weeks, is a low-end fantasy WR2.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: David Njoku, Browns (versus Chiefs). He has a whopping 29 targets and 43.4 PPR fantasy points the past two weeks combined, both tops among tight ends. Njoku should be locked into your lineups for another favorable matchup, against a Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends who get a lot of run out of the slot. The six tight ends they've faced who ran at least 12 routes from the slot averaged 17.2 points overall in those contests, with Brock Bowers (30.2) the most recent to capitalize upon this matchup.
Matchup to avoid: Cade Otton, Buccaneers (at Chargers). He's not seeing quite the usage since the team's Week 11 bye as he did in the four weeks that preceded it, and now he'll go up against one of the league's best overall defenses. Only four tight ends all season have reached 10 PPR fantasy points against the Chargers, all of them elite names (Mark Andrews, Bowers, Travis Kelce and Trey McBride), and the team's 1.38 points per target afforded to the position are the fewest in the league.
