Manny Pacquiao's boxing success relies on the things he has probably lost

Manny Pacquiao will end a nearly four-year hiatus from the ring to challenge Mario Barrios for the WBC welterweight title on July 19 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

"I'm back," Pacquiao posted on social media to make his rumored comeback official. "Let's make history!"

The last time Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 KOs) was inside the squared circle, the Filipino boxing legend dropped a unanimous decision to Yordenis Ugas in August 2021. He was 42 then. When he steps through the ropes to face Barrios, he will be 46.

Pacquiao, who will be inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame on June 8, has not addressed the motivation behind the decision to end his retirement, but the history he speaks of is the opportunity to break his own record as boxing's oldest 147-pound world champion (40 years, 215 days). Historically speaking, only two boxers have won world title fights at 46 or older -- George Foreman (46 years, 102 days) and Bernard Hopkins, who won four title fights after his 46th birthday and was 49 years, 94 days old in his last title win.

Foreman had incredible power at his advanced age to take out opponents, while Hopkins relied more on technique and defense than athleticism to carry him to victories in his 40s. Pacquiao relies heavily on athleticism to win fights, and his once-blazing speed was visibly on the decline in his last fight.

To help illustrate Pacquiao's decline, he has thrown 10 less punches per round, and landed about seven less punches per round in his six fights after turning 40, compared to his output in his last 14 fights before that, according to CompuBox -- a 4-2 record with just 1 KO.

Defeating Barrios will be a huge mountain to climb -- literally and figuratively -- for boxing's only eight-division world champion. Listed at 6 feet, Barrios will be the tallest opponent Pacquiao has faced in his storied pro career that began in 1995. Barrios is also 16 years younger than Pacquiao, which represents the biggest age discrepancy for the four-time welterweight champion.

But while Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KOs) is more than formidable, Father Time will be the most difficult challenge for Pacquiao to overcome inside the ring.

Pacquiao has reunited with legendary trainer Freddie Roach for his comeback fight, and the dynamic duo will work together to construct a game plan to pull off the upset. But boxing is a difficult sport to jump back into after nearly half a decade away, especially in your 40s, and when athleticism has been the foundation to Pacquiao's success.

As a fighter whose offense is predicated on speed and explosiveness, Pacquiao must find the fountain of youth in order to pull off the upset (Barrios is a -450 favorite per ESPN BET). For the entirety of his career, Pacquiao's success was in large part due to his ability to dart in and out of trouble, blasting opponents with lightning-quick combinations from awkward angles. Only superior counterpunchers (Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather) could get a proper read on Pacquiao's unpredictable offensive explosions and tame them with well-timed counters. As Pacquiao began to slow down, it was easier for less-skilled fighters such as Jeff Horn to outwork him. Even still, there were moments where Pacquiao was quick enough on the draw to surprise his opponents. Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman both faced -- and lost to -- a 40-year-old Pacquiao, who was still explosive enough to overwhelm with his speed.

That was six years ago.

In Pacquiao's most recent fight against Ugas, he showed less explosiveness and had his footwork stymied by Ugas' jab and looping right hand. Granted, Ugas is a technically sound Cuban boxer who relied on being fundamentally sound over sheer athleticism to become a world champion. Nevertheless, Pacquiao never found any rhythm and was ultimately outworked in what was assumed to be the final fight of his legendary career.

The fight with Barrios will be just as much about Pacquiao finding his old form as it will be about overcoming his opponent's physical advantages. Pacquiao will have to hope that his time away from the sport provides some much-needed spring in his step. If he's unable to cut the angles and find openings to dart in and out of with his footwork, he will end up on the wrong end of Barrios' long jab.

Barrios isn't unbeatable, however, and presents the most reasonable path for Pacquiao to accomplish his goal of regaining a welterweight title. In his most recent outing, Barrios survived a sixth-round knockdown to salvage a split draw against Abel Ramos on the undercard of Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson in November. Barrios tends to negate his height and reach advantages by fighting "small" and having most of his success boxing on the inside. His knockout loss to Gervonta Davis in 2021 saw "El Azteca" make himself vulnerable by crouching into the range of his shorter opponent -- Davis is 5-foot-5½. Barrios is also a bit on the slower side and can be outworked by a sprightlier opponent. Thurman was coming off a 931-day hiatus and looked faster and sharper than Barrios when they met in 2022.

Still, Thurman was 33 at the time and within the prime boxing years of physicality and athleticism. Pacquiao is far from that. It's unlikely in his mid-40s that Pacquiao will somehow be faster and more explosive now than he was against Thurman and Broner in 2019.