Man City favourites and Liverpool in trouble - how WSL stands at winter break

The Women's Super League has wound down for the winter break and Manchester City find themselves at the top of the tree as we enter the festive period.

At the halfway mark, Andree Jeglertz's side are six points clear of defending champions Chelsea, who have won the last six titles.

Arsenal, Manchester United and surprise package Tottenham are following closely behind in the race for a European place.

Down at the other end, winless Liverpool are rooted to the bottom of the table and occupy the relegation play-off place, two points adrift of fellow strugglers West Ham.

BBC Sport looks at how things stand, what the Opta Supercomputer is saying and what managers and pundits are thinking.

The 2024-25 season was a disappointing one for Manchester City - they finished fourth and missed out on a place in the Champions League.

But their failure to qualify for Europe might prove a blessing in disguise.

City are on a 10-game winning streak and thriving under Jeglertz, who has reignited the club's title ambitions and introduced an energetic, high-pressing brand of football since arriving in July.

"They've just gone about their business quietly and grown in confidence, and I think if you're six points clear at the end of Christmas then you'd be looking forward to that break and to go again in January," ex-England defender Lindsay Johnson told BBC Radio 5 Live.

"They're showing they've got what it takes to go and win this league and take it from Chelsea possibly. Their quality is hard to deal with."

But Jeglertz is not getting carried away.

"We can't take anything for granted. What we have done, nobody will take that away from us but it's in spring that everything will be determined," he said on 5 Live.

City's tally of 30 points from their opening 11 games has only been bettered once in the last eight WSL campaigns, with Chelsea picking up 31 points last season.

The team that have been top after 11 matches has gone on to lift the trophy in six of the last eight seasons.

Despite slipping up in recent weeks, Chelsea will be keen to keep their tight grip on the WSL and add a seventh successive trophy to their collection.

The Blues have already dropped nine points this season - three more than they dropped over the entire 2024-25 season - and they saw their 34-game unbeaten run ended by Everton earlier this month.

But Sonia Bompastor believes her side can make up the six-point gap and "reverse the situation" - even if City are, as she says "performing really well".

"Since I joined the club, we have always been at the top of the table. This is the first time we are behind. That's fine, sometimes that happens, I still trust my players and know the quality we have," she told Sky Sports.

"I'm really enjoying watching my team play. The fact the players can adjust to different systems is really important. We can be more unpredictable."

Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham are hot on Chelsea's tails, with just four points separating the four sides.

While Arsenal and United are expected to be there, or thereabouts, when it comes to Champions League places - having finished second and third respectively last season - Spurs have emerged as surprise contenders for a European spot.

After finishing 11th last season, Tottenham are exceeding expectations under new head coach Martin Ho.

Spurs have won six of their 11 WSL games and have held Arsenal and United to draws - although they let a three-goal lead slip against the Red Devils on Sunday.

Speaking after their stalemate against United, former England midfielder Fara Williams told BBC Two: "To come away with a draw and be disappointed shows they are ambitions now and they are wanting to compete with these teams in the top four.

"They look like a different team, a more organised team, [with] more structure to them and their position suggests they've improved massively."

Arsenal and United have less cause for celebration but they retain a small glimmer of hope in the title race and are firmly in the hunt for a European place.

Opta's Supercomputer simulates every WSL match and estimates where each team will finish. Here's who they have predicted to win the title this season:

And here's the Supercomputer calculations for each team's chances of finishing in the top three and earning a European place:

With the WSL expanding to 14 teams next season, there is no outright relegation this term.

Instead, the team that finishes bottom will play the third-placed team in WSL 2 in a play-off, with the winner earning a place in the top division next season.

As it stands, Liverpool would be the team to go into that play-off, having picked up just two points in their opening 11 games.

They head into the New Year without a win and there is little cause for positivity for under-pressure boss Gareth Taylor, who said the club have "regressed".

Since the 2017-18 season, only twice has the bottom-placed team after 11 games survived relegation - Leicester in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

But Liverpool can take belief from the fact there are only six points separating the bottom four teams.

West Ham have won just once this season, while Everton and Leicester's stats aren't much better - having each claimed just two league victories.

Opta Supercomputer's predictions for who will finish bottom of the WSL and go into a relegation play-off: