Mark OgdenMar 11, 2026, 02:57 PM ET
The 2026 FIFA men's World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada is due to start in less than three months, but the conflict in Iran and neighboring countries, following President Donald Trump's announcement on March 1 of "major combat operations" against the Iranian regime, has led to growing uncertainty over the participation of teams from that region.
The conflict has already seen longtime Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in airstrikes in Tehran, as well as missile and drone attacks in response from Iran, targeting Israel, regional U.S. bases and Gulf nations. And while Iran's involvement at the World Cup has been in doubt since the outbreak of hostilities -- they're scheduled in Group G, with games against Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand -- the instability in the Gulf has now placed a question mark over Iraq's ability to take part in this month's intercontinental playoffs in Mexico.
So what is happening, and how -- and when -- will there be any clarity over which teams will take part in the World Cup?
What's the latest with Iran?
Within 24 hours of the first missile strikes on Iran, a senior official from the Islamic Republic of Iran Football Federation (FFIRI) said that there was little optimism that the team, which was the first non-host to qualify for this year's World Cup, would play in the tournament.
"What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope," said FFIRI official Mehdi Taj, who is also a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation.
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FIFA's initial response was that it would "monitor" the situation, and sources told ESPN that there was confidence that the situation would resolve itself ahead of the World Cup, which begins when Mexico face South Africa in Mexico City on June 11. Although the conflict is continuing in the Persian Gulf, FIFA president Gianni Infantino delivered a positive update on Wednesday, saying after a meeting with President Trump that Iran would be "welcome" at the tournament in the U.S., where they are due to play two games in Los Angeles and one in Seattle.
"During the discussions, President Trump reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States," Infantino said.
However, Iran's sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said shortly after Infantino's comments that the national team would not take part in the World Cup. "Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup," Donyamali said.
Does that mean Iran are definitely out?
No. This is clearly a fast-moving situation and with FFIRI controlled by the Iranian government, the decision on whether Iran participate in the World Cup will ultimately be down to political figures in the country.
President Trump has stated that he expects the conflict to last between four to six weeks. If the outcome of the conflict leads to a change of government in Iran, it will have implications for the football team and those in charge of the federation. However, while it would be foolish to speculate on what the picture will look like in four to six weeks' time, that time frame allows FIFA to delay any decision until the FIFA Congress in Vancouver on April 30.
Sources have said that FIFA continues to monitor the situation, but that no decision on Iran needs to be taken at this stage. If the conflict continues to be ongoing at the time of the FIFA Congress, contingency plans for Iran's potential World Cup withdrawal, and replacement, will have to be made.
What are the likely backup options?
If Iran withdraws from the tournament, sources have said that their replacement would almost certainly come from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) in the form of the nation that came closest to qualifying. Right now, that nation would be Iraq, but they can seal qualification by winning their intercontinental playoff against either Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey, Mexico, on March 31.
If Iraq lose the playoff final, they would take Iran's place at the World Cup in the event of their neighbors pulling out of the competition. In the event of Iraq winning the playoff and qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1986, the next Asian team in line would be the United Arab Emirates, as a result of their AFC playoff final defeat against Iraq last November.
What is the complication with Iraq right now?
As a consequence of the conflict in the Gulf, Iraq's players and their Australian coach, Graham Arnold, are unable to travel outside of the region and the Iraq-based players cannot secure Mexican visas to enable them to make the trip to Monterrey.
Iraqi players based in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been able to secure visas by visiting the Mexican Embassy in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but with Iraqi airspace closed until at least April 1 and Mexico not having an embassy in Iraq, the domestic players cannot travel to an embassy in a neighboring country.
As a result of the difficulties facing his team, Iraq coach Arnold has canceled a planned training camp in Houston, Texas, and has called on FIFA to postpone the playoff until closer to the World Cup. FIFA has not responded to an ESPN question about that request.
"Right now we are struggling to get our players out of Iraq," Arnold said. "In my opinion, if FIFA were to delay the game it gives us time to prepare properly. Let Bolivia play Suriname this month and then a week before the World Cup, we play the winner in the U.S. -- the winner of that game stays on, and the loser goes home."
Arnold said that such a delay could also enable FIFA to take time over a decision on Iran's participation and potential replacement.
"In my opinion, it also gives FIFA more time to decide what Iran is going to do," Arnold said. "If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup and it gives the UAE, who we beat in qualifying, the chance to prepare for either Bolivia or Suriname.
"Our federation's president, Adnan Dirjal, is working round the clock trying to plan and prepare to make everyone in Iraq's dream come true, so we need this decision made quickly."
How long can FIFA wait before making a decision?
There is no modern-day precedent of a team withdrawing or being removed from a World Cup. But in 1992, Denmark were handed a place at Euro '92 by UEFA just 10 days before the start of the tournament in Sweden after Yugoslavia were kicked out of the competition as a result of United Nations sanctions due to military conflict in the Balkans. Denmark went on to win the tournament.
Sources have told ESPN that FIFA is prepared to wait for the situation in Iran to resolve itself before having to make a final decision. In terms of key dates, the outcome of the playoffs on March 31 -- if they go ahead -- will be significant, but firm decisions are unlikely before the FIFA Congress on April 30.
