Pamela MaldonadoFeb 11, 2026, 06:57 AM ET
- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
The PGA is headed to Pebble Beach, a course that looks simple on paper but can expose everything. It's short by modern standards but not at all forgiving. Small greens, coastal air and sharp decision-making force players to play with controlled aggression.
Distance helps but it only matters if you can convert chances on the green, meaning tee-to-green sets the table but putting decides how far you can go.
You'll see that this week I included both "To win" and "To win without Scottie Scheffler." If you opt to sprinkle on the outright market, I prefer the full To win. Removing Scheffler costs you upside, and the players I'm backing need volatility to win anyway. If they get there, it's because they spike with birdies and distance, not because Scottie politely stepped aside. The price difference rarely justifies sacrificing payout.
That said ... new week, same method. I like the "Top 20" wagers for consistency, but I only target players whose profile actually supports a win if everything clicks. Full odds are listed, so you can choose your own risk level whether you're chasing ceiling or playing with higher probability.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Best bets
Jake Knapp: Top 20 (+114)
Full odds:
Top 10 +270
Top 5 +590
To win +3800
Winner w/o Scheffler +3100
Knapp is a high-ceiling, volatility type of player. When his timing clicks, he contends, but when it doesn't, accuracy can get exposed. Pebble rewards exactly what he brings: power, birdies and putts. Knapp is an aggressive scorer with legit upside, bogey-free 64 kind of upside.
He's top five off the tee and driving distance, while also top 10 in putting, birdie or better, and Poa putting splits. That's a stellar combo to create scoring chances and convert. With a T5 at Torrey both strong off the tee and with the flatstick, plus a T8 at Scottsdale, and solid at Waialae, that's Torrey prep DNA written all over his recent form.
Last year at Pebble was mediocre, but that was because of cold putting. The 2026 version of Knapp is different. I like Top 20s so +114 works for me but the value technically lives in top 10 or top five if you want more risk. With Knapp, you either let him contend or he misses.
Pierceson Coody: Top 20 (+152)
Full odds:
Top 10 +365
Top 5 +830
To win +5700
Winner w/o Scheffler +4600
Coody's profile kept getting better the longer I stared at his numbers. He's a power-forward player that fits Pebble really well as a long hitter who uses distance as a tool. Coody is fifth both off the tee and in driving distance, which means he's consistently creating shorter approach shots and easier scoring chances.
What sold me was his overall baseline, sixth from tee-to-green and 12th in birdie or better rate, giving him margin. If his putter is even average, he can still stay relevant on the leaderboard.
The quiet edge is putting. Overall, putting can run hot or cold but on Poa annua, Cody is second best. If he's on, his ceiling jumps. If he doesn't, the ball striking alone can still carry him inside the top 20. Recent form -- T2 at Torrey and T10 at Scottsdale -- along with his distance plus elite tee-to-green plus strong Poa splits, is what you want coming in.
For info sake, Top 30 at -102 is an option but feels like playing defense. His Top 20 price is best for the upside to land near the top of the leaderboard, not just sneak in late.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Chris Gotterup, $9,000: I like Gotterup in fantasy versus a top 20 at (-102) because he can spike and carry a lineup, which works for DFS upside but not as a betting anchor.
He has two wins in his past three starts, which tells you the ceiling is real but the path is narrow. He's sixth off the tee and sixth in distance, so he can overwhelm courses from tee-to-green, which is great for birdie opportunities. The problem is Pebble also needs putts, and his Poa putting is 73rd with a mid birdie rate overall. He's priced as a ball striking favorite but capped the upside.
Maverick McNealy $8,800: He's top 10 in putting, on Poa, and strokes gained at Pebble, which means he knows how to score on this track. Strong putting plus improving irons gives him a solid path to greens and birdie looks. The trade-off, which makes him more of a fantasy player than wager, is off the tee. Driving is average and accuracy can wander, which caps his true win equity. McNealy relies more on approach and putter than power, so he's not a -21 type of guy unless he has an outlier driving week. For fantasy, that's fine.
DFS player to fade
Michael Thorbjornsen, $8,600: He's flashy on the surface with a T18 at Torrey and T3 at Phoenix but let's pump the brakes. His profile could be shaky for Pebble. The driver is good but the putter isn't. He's a negative player on Poa, volatile week to week and still dependent on ball striking spikes to contend. Pebble punishes inconsistency. His birdie rate is fine but the misses can turn into stress quick here with small greens and awkward lies. His price is chasing recent finishes rather than being a good fit.
