Pamela MaldonadoJan 21, 2026, 07:11 AM ET
- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
The American Express in LaQuinta, California, is a unique format: three courses with short, scorable desert tracks at PGA West Stadium Course, plus La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament Course in the rotation.
The winning score is pretty much prewritten at 20-under or better. This is a green light event, where fairways are wide, pins are attackable and birdies are plentiful. Power and distance isn't required. Instead, what matters is who can create chances with wedges and short irons, and actually convert when scoring is easy.
Putting spikes comes into play, moment matters and guys who can live in birdie mode without pressing tend to go low.
This is a light card, because early weeks into any sporting season adds volatility with little information to build from. I'm betting players I think can actually win, but I'm taking the most probable outcome that still pays, usually the top-20 window.
Best bets
Ben Griffin: Bet Top 20 (-115)
Full odds:
Top 10 +185
Top 5 +370
To win +2000
Griffin is a name I kept coming back to last season, and this year feels like a continuation rather than a reset. He consistently gains tee-to-green, with his biggest edge coming on approach, the most repeatable skill in golf and one that matters most at the American Express. This tournament turns into a birdie race across easy scoring conditions, so Griffin's iron play puts him in a position to score without needing hero shots.
What separates him here is balance. Griffin gains with his irons, but he's also competent around the greens and his putting is steady enough to avoid bleeding rounds. At courses where low scores are required, that well-roundedness comes into play. At -115, his efficiency makes him a buy. I contemplated Top 10, but I always lean on the conservative end in golf.
Harry Hall: Bet Top 20 (+165)
Full odds:
Top 10 +350
Top 5 +700
To win +4500
Since this tournament is a scoring contest with easy setups, receptive greens and low pressure on the tee, that shifts the edge away from raw power toward players who can turn good iron shots into birdies. That's Hall's lane. His putting profile is elite relative to the field, and when courses reward approach-to-putt conversion, Hall can hang around the leaderboard even without perfect ball striking.
His profile at easy-scoring events and desert-style setups shows that a hot round on one of the shorter tracks can give momentum into this number. This is a bet on fit, and Hall's game fits low scoring.
Is Scottie Scheffler worth the (-150) price?
I saw this price and thought, wow, that's kind of cheap. Last season, this was my go-to market with Scheffler, even though hefty, it was profitable. It was on the higher end though, -170 to -180 range. This spot is different.
First, this is his first start of the season. That alone adds uncertainty. Even elite players use their opener to knock rust off. Second, this tournament doesn't really reward Scottie's biggest edge. Putting variance matters more than tee-to-green dominance, and that's where Scottie can be mortal.
His history here has one top-five finish in five appearances. He's played well without separating. To justify (-150) in this tournament, you're basically saying he should land top-five six out of 10 times in this setup, a high bar in a low-difficulty event.
So yes, (-150) looks cheap but it's cheap for a reason. We're too early to click on juice this high.
It's a pass for me, but I'll be ready to click on Scheffler when the time is right.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Kurt Kitayama, $8,700: Volatility with real upside. His value comes from ballstriking, not putting which can work in his favor where approach can separate quickly. When his irons are on, Kitayama can pile up scoring chances in a hurry. The risk is obvious -- but you're paying for the ceiling, not safety. He fits best in builds that can absorb variance and chase top-end outcomes.
Lee Hodges, $6,700: He's a pure salary release play with a narrow path to success. Hodges' best results here came when his ball striking spiked, not from putting variance, making the outcome fragile. Backing Hodges is asking for a clean approach week. The floor is low, but the price reflects that. He's viable only if you need savings and building for first place.
DFS player to fade
Jacob Bridgeman, $7,400: Yes, he finished T4 last week, which is exactly why he's overvalued here. The result was driven by short term execution, not a profile built for a birdie fest. This tourney rewards sustained scoring and conversion, but Bridgeman struggles on easy setups where birdies are mandatory. His strokes gained profile doesn't create enough chances and chasing last week's finish ignores how different this event plays.
