Tristan H. Cockcroft
Apr 16, 2025, 01:04 PM ET
We fantasy baseball managers can be an impatient lot.
Every year -- every year -- we're tasked with resisting the loudness that is April statistics, that sinking feeling we get when the certain-to-win team we rostered exiting the draft languishes in seventh place of the standings 20 days into the season. And every year, too many of us make the mistake of overreacting to small-sample disappointments by our foundational players.
We are now exactly 20 days into the 2025 season. Chris Sale, the defending National League Cy Young Award winner and No. 26 overall pick (on average) during the preseason, has a mere 20 fantasy points through four starts to place 126th among starting pitchers. Francisco Lindor, the second-place finisher in the NL Most Valuable Player balloting and No. 13 overall fantasy pick, has scored only 32 points -- good for just 105th among hitters -- despite the supposed benefit of now having Juan Soto batting behind him.
Across the league, 20 players have already been dropped in more than 20% of ESPN leagues since Opening Day. Among these are rational cuts, such as the suspended Jurickson Profar, since-demoted David Bednar and players dealing with long-term injuries such as Jared Jones, Reynaldo Lopez and Justin Steele. But that list also includes a trio of top-100 preseason picks in Alec Bohm, Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker, as well as popular catcher-turned-first baseman Willson Contreras.
Heck, Sale himself has seen his roster rate drop 3.4% since games started in March. Seeing those reactionary levels, there's one critical piece of advice to dish out today:
RELAX!
The 2024 campaign provides us one of the greatest all-time examples of the aberration that can be 20-day, season-starting slumps. Through this point last season, Aaron Judge was batting just .182/.337/.394 with three home runs over 18 games for a paltry 39 fantasy points. While fantasy managers weren't dropping him in wholesale amounts, he was within a week's time of hitting his season-low roster rate.
The day after he hit that low point, Judge began one of the most torrid 44-game hot streaks we've ever seen: He hit .383/.505/.922 with 22 home runs and 237 fantasy points, ultimately coasting to both an American League MVP Award and the second-best overall 2025 fantasy point total.
To illustrate how foolish it was to put such an emphasis upon that 20-day, season-opening slump, relative to a 20-day funk later in the year, consider this: Jose Ramirez, a universal top-five fantasy player last season, hit just .239/.280/.310 without a home run, scoring only 26 fantasy points across his own 18-game span last July. It was scarcely noticed by fantasy managers at the time, best indicated by the fact that his roster rate in ESPN leagues actually increased during that stretch.
Yes, ESPN's standard format is a different beast than deeper leagues, or even many rotisserie leagues. With a wealth of actually performing players regularly available on the free-agent list, change isn't only necessary in the format -- it's imperative. Still, you must use caution before making rash decisions with any of your slow-starting stars.
As with the aforementioned Profar, Bednar and Steele examples where the logic is obvious, ensure that there's a sound rationale before making any cut. To help you make those decisions, let's put some of the more notable stars off to uninspiring starts under the microscope:
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets: Although his managers haven't yet pressed the panic button wholesale -- his roster rate is down only 0.12% -- he'll probably see that number balloon in the coming days. That said, he's the quintessential example of a slow starter, notorious for needing several weeks at the onset of a new season to hit his stride.
Lindor has averaged just 2.47 fantasy points per game in April (lumping those few March days in) across his 11-year career -- easily his worst single month, compared to 3.07 in the other five combined. It's a well-known trend of his and one certain to change course soon, especially with all of the positive traits that surrounded him in the preseason (an elevated hard-contact rate, a top-shelf supporting cast and Soto batting behind him) still present.
Verdict: Practice patience if you have him, target in trade if you don't.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres: Among the top-20 overall preseason picks, he has seen the largest dip in roster rate since Opening Day (down 2.3%). It's completely undeserved -- and I'd frankly liken him to a pitcher comp for Judge's 2024 -- considering he has faced nothing but middle-to-poor matchups through four starts.
Additionally, his ERA spike almost is entirely the result of a single nine-run nightmare at Sacramento's Sutter Health Park, which has already seen averages of 10.6 runs, 18.9 hits and 2.4 home runs through nine games. Give him a mulligan there and Cease's ERA is a more palatable 3.31. Even if you include it, he's still reflecting every bit the same elite raw stuff that he did last year.
Verdict: Practice patience. He remains among the strongest trade targets.
Anthony Santander, Toronto Blue Jays: His Canadian career hasn't begun quite as well as the team had hoped after signing him to a five-year, $92.5 million contract in January, but that change of scenery alone should grant him some forgiveness (and patience) in fantasy circles. Santander, like Lindor, is another player with a history of starting seasons slowly, averaging 1.53 fantasy points per game in April behind .213/.293/.367 rates that are easily his worst in any single month. From May forward, he averages 2.47 points per game. Also, don't overlook that he has hit home runs in two of his past four games.
Verdict: Practice patience.
Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers: Fantasy managers largely forgave him for what was a more disappointing 2024 than you might remember, selecting him 35th overall in the preseason, but thus far things have proceeded even more poorly than they did last year. Semien has just 16 fantasy points through as many games -- a total exceeded by 48 other second base-eligibles.
He's arrived where he is with what would be his worst single-year rates in terms of Barrels, hard-hit balls and ground balls. Now 34, Semien is performing like a player on the clear downslope of his career arc and, while he'll inevitably boost his hitting rates, he's the one name on this list that comes with clear red flags and flashing warning lights.
Verdict: Give some serious thought to trading him now, despite his current low point.
Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks: He's the most-dropped player since Opening Day among those selected within the top 25 (down 2.7%), after what has been a forgettable start to his Diamondbacks career. Due to his being pushed to the back of their rotation to start the season -- still a head-scratching move -- he has made only three appearances, averaging 5.3 fantasy points. That's an average exceeded by 109 other pitchers who have made at least as many starts.
Burnes wasn't an aggressive draft-day target of mine, mostly due to concerns about his declining strikeout rate and Chase Field's generally hitter-friendly environment, but he's also one of the few pitchers with a track record of durability and a high-floor skill set. There are probably leagues where he could be more easily acquired than you think, and he's likely to rebound to the neighborhood a top-10 SP, even if he's not ultimately a member of that tier.
Verdict: Practice patience, at least while he settles into the desert atmosphere over the next few weeks.
Other quick verdicts
Chris Sale has faced one of the most brutal schedules of any pitcher (@SD, @LAD, PHI, @TB), and his improved velocity in his most recent turn cements the need for a patient approach.
Be patient as well with Corey Seager, a fellow notorious slow starter whose .761 career April OPS is 95 points beneath that in any other month.
Alec Bohm, thus far, has given back almost all of his 2024 gains in terms of chase and walk rates, which were integral to his breakthrough. He'll improve -- it's hard not to with his stat line -- but especially in ESPN standard leagues, it's rational to not want to wait on him.
Yainer Diaz's free-swinging skill set should always be subject to peaks and valleys. He hit .200/.214/.259 without a homer in May 2024, for example. As such, there's little reason to place such emphasis on his April that he'd see a whopping 22% roster rate decline.
