Housing market to soften amid Iran war fallout, Nationwide says

The UK's housing market is likely to soften as households face rising mortgage and energy costs due to the impact of the Iran war, Nationwide has said.

The bank's comments came as it reported a jump in house prices for March, up by 0.9%, saying the market "had regained momentum" during the month.

However, Nationwide said the surge in energy prices sparked by the Middle East conflict was a "significant shock to the global economy, clouding the outlook".

Expectations interest rates will rise have caused lenders to push up mortgage rates and pull hundreds of mortgage products over the past few weeks.

Nationwide's figures showed March's increase took the average cost of a property to £277,186. Annual price growth jumped to 2.2%, up from 1% in February.

But the building society warned the market will take a hit in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Mortgage rates have been rising sharply due to a dramatic change in expectations over the future direction of interest rates.

Before the war began, the Bank of England had been expected to cut rates twice this year. However, the surge in energy prices means financial markets are now expecting the Bank to raise rates to counter any rise in inflation.

This change in expectations has led lenders to raise their mortgage rates.

Last week the average two-year fixed rate hit 5.75%, up from 4.83% at the start of March, according to the financial information service Moneyfacts. The average five-year fixed rate has risen from 4.95% to 5.69% over the same period and is now at its highest level since July 2024.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said if higher rates are sustained, "this could reverse some of the improvement in housing affordability that has taken place in recent years".

"With consumer sentiment also likely to be dented by the uncertain outlook and the prospect of rising energy costs, housing market activity is likely to soften," he said.