Bill ConnellyMay 24, 2025, 01:04 PM ET
- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Professional tennis is in a rather funky place at the moment. On the men's side, top-ranked Jannik Sinner just came off a three-month doping suspension that, while almost certainly a no-fault issue on his part, left a void atop the sport. No one really took advantage of Sinner's absence. Alexander Zverev had a chance to move to No. 1 but lost before the semifinals in seven of eight tournaments and fell to third. All-time Slam champion Novak Djokovic has struggled as well.
On the women's side, No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, No. 2 Coco Gauff and No. 6 Mirra Andreeva have reached a combined eight finals in Slams or 1000-level events in 2025. But Roland Garros is typically Iga Swiatek's purview; the 23-year-old has won four French Opens -- matching Rafael Nadal's early-career pace -- but dealt with her own no-fault doping suspension in the fall, and she has already lost as many matches in 2025 (nine) as she did in 2024.
Can anyone in the men's draw prevent a Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz finale? Has Swiatek's shaky form (and a brutal draw) made Sabalenka, Gauff or Andreeva the women's title favorite?
Intriguing questions abound, and the entertainment should begin right from the start of a first round that includes matchups like 2024 Olympic gold medalist Zheng Qinwen against 2021 French Open finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, defending men's champion Alcaraz against Kei Nishikori and a battle of former top-5 women, Elena Rybakina vs. Belinda Bencic.
There are 256 men and women in the singles fields, but on this French Open fortnight, let's look at 20 players who have a particularly good chance at winning a lot of matches.
The favorites
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +105
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Casper Ruud (quarterfinals)
Jannik Sinner might be the best men's player in the world, but he has one pretty glaring flaw at the moment: He can't beat Carlos Alcaraz. The defending French Open champ has beaten Sinner four times in a row, including two clay-court matchups: a five-set Alcaraz win in last year's French Open semis and a 7-6, 6-1 decision last week in Rome. Sinner was obviously still playing his way into shape after months on the sideline, but this rivalry has become increasingly fascinating in that, in 12 total meetings, the lower-ranked player has won nine times. Right now, that player is Alcaraz.
Alcaraz comes to Paris in excellent form. After a bumpy hard-court season, he's 15-1 on clay in 2025, beating Lorenzo Musetti to win in Monte Carlo, then Jack Draper, Musetti and Sinner in the last three rounds to win in Rome. In fact, going back to last year's French Open, he has lost only two of his past 29 clay matches: to Holger Rune in Barcelona in April and to Novak Djokovic in last year's surprising Olympic gold medal match.
We might find out that Sinner has an extra gear to deploy this year once he's fully in match shape, but right now Alcaraz is a known quantity and the gold standard on the dirt.
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +220
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 9 Alex de Minaur (quarterfinals)
Jannik Sinner's breakthrough began almost exactly two years ago. After a frustrating early-round exit in the 2023 French Open, he reached the Wimbledon semis and was off to the races: He won 33 of his last 39 matches in 2023, and he's a staggering 85-7 since the start of 2024. He might not be the best clay-court player in the world yet -- Alcaraz might still claim that title -- but he's the best player overall.
And his utterly ruthless 6-0, 6-1 win over Casper Ruud in the Rome quarterfinals was as dominant a victory as you'll see against a top-10 player. Ruud has made two French Open finals, but Sinner finished the match having won 76% of his own service points and 68% of Ruud's.
It's not particularly fun to root for chalk in tournaments, but the idea of a first Sinner-Alcaraz Slam final is tantalizing.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +250
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Zheng Qinwen (quarterfinals)
Considering Iga Swiatek has won 32 of her past 33 French Open matches, it would be fair to just pencil her in as the favorite no matter her current form. But using any 2025 evidence whatsoever, you might have to give the edge to the World No. 1: Aryna Sabalenka.
Sabalenka has made the finals in six of eight tournaments in 2025, plus four of her past six clay-court tournaments and five of her past eight Slams. She fell into a February funk after losing to Madison Keys in the Australian Open final, dropping three of four matches overall. Otherwise she's 33-3 in 2025. Clay is probably her worst surface, but it might not matter. She doesn't win every final she reaches, but she's the most likely player to get there in any tournament she enters.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +340
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (quarterfinals)
Iga Swiatek is on pace to end up as the greatest women's clay-courter ever, but her form is a question mark. She's 0-4 this year against Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva, and she failed to make the finals of any of the three clay tournaments she entered this spring. This is the shakiest she has looked in years. Will that matter? Or will the Iga aura return the moment she walks onto Court Philippe-Chatrier?
The aura better return quickly. Swiatek could play an in-form Marta Kostyuk in the third round, Jelena Ostapenko (against whom she's 0-6) or Elena Rybakina (0-2 on clay) in the fourth, 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals, Aryna Sabalenka in the semis and Andreeva or Gauff in the finals. That is a ridiculous draw. Better find the A-game quickly.
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +550
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Madison Keys or No. 9 Emma Navarro (quarterfinals)
During a three-match losing streak early in the season, Coco Gauff lost six straight sets and was broken 11 times. She was broken seven times in a three-set win over Dayana Yastremska in Madrid and 10 times in a three-set win over Zheng Qinwen. She's double-faulting 8.9% of the time, and she's winning just 42.3% of her second-serve points, her lowest rate since 2020.
Gauff is also the No. 2 player in the world, having reached the finals in Madrid and Rome. She has swept Mirra Andreeva twice in the past month. She's returning serve as well as ever, and until a faulty final against Jasmine Paolini, her serve was steady and strong in Rome. When Aryna Sabalenka lost control of her serve in 2021, the rest of her game improved to compensate, and when she conquered her serve again in 2022, she was a completely different player. It's impossible not to think the same thing might happen with Gauff one day. It might already have started.
Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET odds: +600
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Paula Badosa (fourth round)
She hasn't figured out Coco Gauff yet, but otherwise, Mirra Andreeva is way ahead of schedule. Between her 17th and 18th birthdays, she beat Aryna Sabalenka to reach the French Open semis and won back-to-back 1000-level tournaments in Dubai and Indian Wells. She was ranked 43rd when she turned 17 and was seventh when she turned 18. She's 20-4 since mid-February, and her serve numbers are skyrocketing. She's absorbing lessons and improving at every turn.
No Slam path is easy, but Andreeva's isn't bad. She could play Ashlyn Krueger (who upset her in last year's US Open) in the second round and Paula Badosa or Naomi Osaka in the fourth. But she's 20-4 since mid-February. The holes in her game are closing quickly.
Only need a few breaks
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +1100
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Alexander Zverev (quarterfinals)
"Underdog Novak Djokovic." It just never quite sounds right. And technically, it really isn't correct. Per ESPN BET, the 38-year-old is still the No. 3 favorite in the tournament, and per Tennis Abstract's power ratings, he's still the third-best player in the world -- behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
But Djokovic hasn't offered a ton of evidence of that lately. Before entering the Geneva tournament this week, he was 0-3 on clay in 2025 and just 5-6 since his injury retirement at the Australian Open.
Winning some matches in Geneva, then returning to the best-of-five format that has long been his specialty, could spark another French Open run for the greatest player of all time. But the thought of him beating Alexander Zverev (quarterfinals), Sinner (semis) and Alcaraz (finals) sure seems like a lot to ask.
Jasmine Paolini
ESPN BET odds: +1400
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)
It was easy to underestimate 5-foot-4 Jasmine Paolini at first. She didn't really enjoy a career breakthrough until age 28, when she reached the 2024 French Open finals. But instead of serving as a one-off in her career, it served to shift her into a new gear. She reached the Wimbledon final, too, and while hard courts really aren't her thing -- she's just 22-13 on the surface over the past year -- she's 10-2 on clay in 2025. She won Rome last week, and she has beaten Coco Gauff twice in straight sets. She's ready for another run.
Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET odds: +1400
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Novak Djokovic (quarterfinals)
It's been a disappointing year for 28-year-old Alexander Zverev, who was poised to reach No. 1 for the first time and instead played shakier and shakier tennis until No. 1 was no longer an option. Still, he won the Munich title in April and has reached the French Open semifinals for four straight years. He took Carlos Alcaraz to five sets in last year's final.
Zverev can play sufferball with the best of them, though he struggles on clay to grind his way past Jannik Sinner (he's 0-2 since Sinner's 2024 breakthrough) or Alcaraz (to whom he has lost 10 of 13 sets on clay).
Zheng Qinwen
ESPN BET odds: +1800
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
Zheng Qinwen, 22, reached her first Slam final in 2024 (Australian Open), then beat Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros on the way to Olympic gold last summer. Since a bumpy winter run, she has reached four quarterfinals and one semi since March, and she just beat Aryna Sabalenka for the first time (in Rome).
Like Coco Gauff, Zheng struggled with her serve in the year's early months, but she's returning better than ever. She does, however, have a potentially rough first-round matchup with 2021 finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who beat her last year in their only encounter.
Lorenzo Musetti
ESPN BET odds: +2200
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Holger Rune (fourth round)
Few players on the men's side are as in-form as the Italian, who reached the finals in Monte Carlo and the semis in Madrid and Rome. He wobbled a bit in the early months of 2025, but the 2024 Olympic bronze medalist (and Wimbledon semifinalist) is a hell of a shotmaker. He's just 2-16 against Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic but is capable of taking down anyone else in the field.
Casper Ruud
ESPN BET odds: +3300
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (quarterfinals)
Casper Ruud has made it past the fourth round of four Slams, three of which were French Opens. He has made it to the finals of three 1000-level events, two of which were on clay. The 26-year-old uses heavily torqued topspin to push opponents behind the baseline on clay, and he's 16-3 over the past three years at Roland Garros. The jarring loss to Jannik Sinner was a reminder that he might have a lower ceiling than others, but the nine-match winning streak that preceded the loss was a reminder that his floor on clay is quite high.
ESPN BET odds: +4000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Mirra Andreeva or No. 10 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)
Jessica Pegula has passed the third round of the French Open only once, but the 2024 US Open finalist remains one of tennis' steadiest forces. She has reached four finals in 2025, winning two, and one was on the clay in Charleston. She has dropped three of five matches since that win in South Carolina, but she continues to vacuum up tour points and ranks third in the world.
Others: Elena Rybakina (+3300), Elina Svitolina (+3300), Jelena Ostapenko (+4000), Jack Draper (+4000), Paula Badosa (+4000), Madison Keys (+5000), Francisco Cerundolo (+5000), Daniil Medvedev (+5000), Belinda Bencic (+5000)
They love Roland Garros
Holger Rune
ESPN BET odds: +4000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round)
Still only 22, Holger Rune has reached three Slam quarterfinals, and two were in Paris (2022, 2023). He has battled minor injury and major inconsistency, but he's an excellent 6-4 against top-5 players on clay and swept Carlos Alcaraz, 7-6, 6-2, to win Barcelona in April. You might end up frustrated whether you bet on him or against him.
ESPN BET odds: +5000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth round)
There are lots of players with French Open success on their résumé, and so many of them have battled spotty form of late. Take Stefanos Tsitsipas. The 2021 finalist, who led Novak Djokovic by two sets in that final before succumbing from there, has reached the past two French Open quarterfinals, but they're the only quarters he has reached in his past eight Slams.
He's down to 20th in the world, and lost three of his past five matches. He hasn't beaten a top-10 opponent on any surface for over a year. If Tsitsipas is going to find fifth gear again, it'll be in Paris.
Others: Alex de Minaur (+5000, 2024 quarterfinalist), Ons Jabeur (+5000, two-time quarterfinalist), Karolina Muchova (+5000, 2023 finalist), Maria Sakkari (+5000, 2021 semifinalist), Donna Vekic (+6600, 2024 Olympic silver medalist), Grigor Dimitrov (+6600, 2024 quarterfinalist), Beatriz Haddad Maia (+6600, 2023 semifinalist), Daria Kasatkina (+6600, 2022 semifinalist), Barbora Krejcikova (+6600, 2021 champion), Sofia Kenin (+6600, 2020 finalist), Marketa Vondrousova (+6600, 2019 finalist), Stan Wawrinka (+6600, 2015 champion)
The most well-positioned Americans not named Gauff or Pegula
ESPN BET odds: +5000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Qinwen Zheng (third round)
Coco Gauff is clearly the most likely American to win a title at Roland Garros, and Jessica Pegula's high floor probably keeps her second on the list. But 23-year-old Peyton Stearns, a former Texas Longhorn, sure seems to like the burnt orange surface. Her past four semifinals at any level have come on clay, and her run to the Rome semifinals bumped her up to a career-high 28th in the world. In her past 10 clay matches, she has won eight and lost only to Jasmine Paolini and Aryna Sabalenka.
ESPN BET odds: +6600
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Casper Ruud (fourth round)
There are four American males seeded in the top 15 and seven seeded overall, led by No. 5 Taylor Fritz and 12-seed Tommy Paul. But these seven males are a combined 32-34 at Roland Garros, and only Fritz (2024) and Sebastian Korda (2020) have reached even the fourth round. Over the past year, however, Paul has won 52.9% of his points on clay -- seventh best in the world and easily the most of the American men. He has beaten three top-25 opponents in his past two clay events and lost only to Jack Draper and Jannik Sinner. Paul might be primed for a run.
Other Americans: Emma Navarro (+5000), Amanda Anisimova (+5000), Taylor Fritz (+6600), Danielle Collins (+6600), Sebastian Korda (+6600), Ben Shelton (+10000), Frances Tiafoe (+10000)
The unluckiest
Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET odds: +5000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Paula Badosa (first round)
When you're trying to reestablish your ranking after a tour absence, you need the luck of the draw. Naomi Osaka has not gotten that. Since returning to the tour in 2024, she has played in five Slams and drawn top-20 opponents twice in the first round and twice in the second.
Osaka came closer than anyone to beating Iga Swiatek in Paris last year but only got second-round points for it. She beat No. 20 Karolina Muchova in the Australian Open second round but had to withdraw from the third with injury. And oh look: She drew Paula Badosa in the first round in Paris. Ugh. Osaka clearly has massive upside, and is 8-1 on clay this year, but she's still searching for a Slam breakthrough.
The 22-and-unders
ESPN BET odds: +5000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Alex de Minaur (third round)
It's the Year of the Youngster, with five 23-and-under males ranked in the top 10 and eight in the top 19. In Jannik Sinner's absence, two of these youngsters won 1000-level events: Jack Draper in Indian Wells and Jakub Mensik, a 6-foot-4, 19-year-old, in Miami. Mensik is powerful and has won five of his past seven matches on clay. At the very least, he should give Alex de Minaur a tough first-week test. He could make Sinner work in the quarterfinals, too.
Marta Kostyuk
ESPN BET odds: +5000
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Iga Swiatek (third round)
As an 18-year-old in 2021, Marta Kostyuk walloped former French Open champion Garbine Muguruza at Roland Garros on the way to the fourth round, where she made Iga Swiatek work quite a bit, too. She has won only one French Open match since, but is unbeaten on clay in 2025 against players not named Aryna Sabalenka. If nothing else, she could loom as a tough early test for Swiatek.
Others: Arthur Fils (+5000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Emma Raducanu (+5000), Joao Fonseca (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Clara Tauson (+6600)
