Forward tier list: From must-haves to lottery tickets

What do Steven Stamkos, Fabian Zetterlund, Mark Stone, Tyler Toffoli, Jake DeBrusk, Kiefer Sherwood, Nikolaj Ehlers, Ryan O'Reilly and Morgan Geekie have in common?

Don't worry if you can't answer that off the top of your head.

Last season, these fantasy-relevant players all finished within a single power-play goal of each other for total fantasy points. Nine players, essentially interchangeable from a production standpoint.

Is there any chance someone tiered them all together at this time last season? None. But it perfectly illustrates why tiering your rankings for the draft can give you an edge: When multiple players are on the same level, knowing where the drop-offs happen keeps you from panicking when your top choice vanishes.

Think about it: if you walked into your draft with just a single linear list, you'd be scrambling when one of your targets disappears. Maybe you were planning on Player A or Player B, but both go off the table in the picks leading up to you. Without tiers, your "backup plan" is whatever's left, often a last-second, messy choice.

Tiering turns chaos into clarity. You group players who are essentially equals in your eyes into one bucket. When the first pick in that tier gets taken, you don't flinch, you move down the line confidently because every option in that tier is one you like just as much. You know who's replaceable, who's unique, and where you expect the true drop-offs happen. That's how a smart drafter turns a list into a strategy.

To understand how to make your own tier list, check out the defensemen tier list.

The rankings you see here will be different from the rankings you see inside the ESPN Fantasy Hockey game, as those are the in-game built rankings. I have my own custom projections and use those for tiering.

Note: Points based on the ESPN standard scoring system.

Tier 1: The no-brainers

1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 260.5, last season: 174.1)

2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 253.7, last season: 231.6)

3. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 245.9, last season: 199.6)

4. Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 232.9, last season: 214.2)

Notes: The only quibble to be made here is whether Draisaitl should be in this group, or with the players in Tier 2. But if we look back to the 2018-19 season, this group of forwards appears in the top 10 fantasy forwards at least five times each across the past seven seasons (and it's actually MacKinnon, not Draisaitl, that stops us from saying at least six each). No one else has more than four appearances.

Tier 2: Still kind of no-brainers

5. David Pastrnak, W, Boston Bruins: (projected: 224.3, last season: 210.2)

6. Sam Reinhart, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 218.5, last season: 200.5)

7. Nikita Kucherov, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 208.6, last season: 226.4)

8. Kirill Kaprizov, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 205.9, last season: 112.6)

Notes: Our first whiff of controversy is having Kucherov down here in Tier 2. He's at least two years older than everyone else in these top tiers and will be pushing 33 by the end of the season. That's not drop-off-a-cliff territory yet, but he's arguably out of his prime now.

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Tier 3: I'm gonna get some flack here

9. Dylan Guenther, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 198.2, last season: 148.4)

10. Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 197.8, last season: 124.7)

11. Brady Tkachuk, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 195.7, last season: 162.3)

12. J.T. Miller, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 195.4, last season: 160.4)

13. Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 193.3, last season: 183.4)

Notes: Let's start with the inclusion of both Guenther and Pettersson in the top 10 forwards. You have full support and understanding for knocking them down several tiers for your own rankings, but this is how the projections played out for me. Pettersson is a little more understandable, as even this projection is below his four-year fantasy peak and not even much higher than his four-year average; it's a question of whether you believe the locker-room drama from last season is what truly suppressed him.

With Guenther, this is all on faith for what were phenomenal underlying numbers from a 21-year-old with nothing but runway to carve out his own role at the top of an improved (possibly playoff-contending) depth chart.

Aside from Guenther and Pettersson, the rest of this top dozen sits a clear step behind the upper two tiers.

Tier 4: Still fantasy top-line worthy

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14. Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 190.6, last season: 192.5)

15. Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 190.3, last season: 149.5)

16. William Nylander, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 189.9, last season: 184.3)

17. Mikko Rantanen, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 189.4, last season: 181.0)

18. Kyle Connor, W, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 188.3, last season: 204.8)

19. Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 187.8, last season: 171.0)

20. Jason Robertson, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 187.4, last season: 174.0)

21. Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 186.3, last season: 192.6)

22. Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 186.2, last season: 166.2)

23. Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 185.9, last season: 170.6)

24. Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 185.7, last season: 192.9)

25. Seth Jarvis, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 185.3, last season: 167.1)

26. Dylan Holloway, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 183.8, last season: 154.7)

27. Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 181.5, last season: 186.3)

28. Alex Tuch, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 180.5, last season: 196.4)

29. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 177.5, last season: 172.5)

30. Mitch Marner, W, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 176.9, last season: 188.7)

31. Artemi Panarin, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 176.5, last season: 169.0)

32. Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 176.2, last season: 151.8)

33. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 176.1, last season: 152.8)

34. Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 175.7, last season: 169.2)

Notes: Bigger group here, but only a 15-point gap from top to bottom, so it really comes down to how you want to slice it.

Hughes, Rantanen and Connor all have top-10 upside, and yes, I know most rankings slot two of them where I've put Guenther and Pettersson. Risky? Absolutely.

Holloway is another curveball, though he flashed real upside with the Blues: 2.95 fantasy points per game over 15 games from Feb. 27 to March 27, or 2.60 FPPG over 20 games from late November into January.

In 12-team leagues, the goal is to have at least three forwards by this point and this year, that's more doable than usual, with a deeper pool of names that don't make me wrinkle my nose.

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Tier 5: Finnishing moves

35. Jake Guentzel, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 173.3, last season: 186.0)

36. Martin Necas, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 172.4, last season: 165.7)

37. Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 171.3, last season: 157.5)

38. Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 170.7, last season: 175.0)

39. Jesper Bratt, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 170.3, last season: 176.6)

40. Filip Forsberg, W, Nashville Predators: (projected: 169.6, last season: 189.0)

41. Clayton Keller, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 169.3, last season: 176.3)

42. JJ Peterka, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 168.6, last season: 132.3)

43. Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 168.6, last season: 147.2)

44. Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 167.5, last season: 172.2)

45. Lucas Raymond, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 166.3, last season: 166.4)

46. Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 165.7, last season: 159.6)

Notes: This group still has plenty of bankable talent, led by Finnish stars Barkov and Aho.

Bedard's hype may be trailing a bit in fantasy circles, but he still has many prime seasons ahead to find the next gear and last year he posted the sixth-best fantasy season since 2009-10 for any player his age or younger.

Beyond him, Peterka, Guentzel and Forsberg offer a mix of upside and proven production, making this tier a strong pool of contributors, even if none are quite breaking into the top tiers.

Tier 6: Bounce-back candidates

47. Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 165.4, last season: 170.2)

48. Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 164.9, last season: 136.5)

49. Adrian Kempe, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 164.5, last season: 169.0)

50. Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 163.6, last season: 140.6)

51. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 162.8, last season: 193.8)

52. Cole Caufield, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 162.5, last season: 161.4)

53. Travis Konecny, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 161.9, last season: 159.2)

54. Kirill Marchenko, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 161.6, last season: 159.7)

55. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 161.5, last season: 88.2)

56. Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 161.3, last season: 140.1)

57. John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 161.1, last season: 173.5)

58. Timo Meier, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 160.3, last season: 155.5)

59. Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 159.9, last season: 124.9)

Notes: Stamkos and Zibanejad have a clear template for rebounds: Tavares was the poster child last season. After posting the lowest points-per-game total of his career in 2023-24 since his rookie season, he bounced back to score the second-highest goal total of his career in 2024-25. Stamkos's first season outside Tampa was rough, and Zibanejad has been fading offensively, but both still have strong supporting casts and time to sort things out.

With Kempe, Konecny, Marchenko and Beniers, 30 of the 32 NHL teams now have at least one forward represented so far.

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Tier 7: Upside abounds

60. Juraj Slafkovsky, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 159.0, last season: 137.7)

61. Matthew Tkachuk, W, Florida Panthers: (projected: 157.6, last season: 120.5)

62. Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 156.6, last season: 157.7)

63. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 155.0, last season: 128.7)

64. Matt Boldy, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 154.6, last season: 177.2)

65. Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 154.0, last season: 147.4)

66. Matvei Michkov, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 154.0, last season: 131.8)

67. Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 153.6, last season: 143.8)

68. Jordan Kyrou, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 152.9, last season: 161.4)

69. Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 152.8, last season: 145.8)

70. Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 152.8, last season: 50.2)

71. Fabian Zetterlund, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 152.1, last season: 137.5)

72. Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 151.8, last season: 124.1)

73. Matthew Knies, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 151.6, last season: 148.8)

74. Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 151.5, last season: 135.7)

75. Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 151.1, last season: 115.6)

76. Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 150.5, last season: 150.3)

77. Morgan Geekie, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 149.8, last season: 134.9)

78. Jake Neighbours, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 149.7, last season: 131.6)

79. Quinton Byfield, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 149.4, last season: 121.4)

80. Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 147.3, last season: 184.8)

Notes: This tier is brimming with upside. From Slafkovsky and Fantilli to Michkov and Byfield -- even a veteran like Ehlers in his first season outside Winnipeg -- there are likely fantasy superstars hiding here. By this stage of the draft, you should have two full lines of forwards, so high-upside options are important.

Sometimes choosing safety is best. If you've already taken a couple of risks earlier (like, say, putting Guenther in the top 10), targeting Larkin, Kyrou or Kopitar here makes sense.

Tkachuk's projection accounts for the expectation that he'll miss much of the 2025 portion of the 2025-26 season.

With Horvat, 31 of 32 NHL teams are now represented among the forwards.

Tier 8: Reclamation projects

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Trailer: 'Unrivaled: Red Wings v Avalanche'

Trailer: 'Unrivaled: Red Wings v Avalanche'

81. Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames: (projected: 146.1, last season: 160.2)

82. Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 145.7, last season: 160.0)

83. Elias Lindholm, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 145.6, last season: 138.3)

84. Owen Tippett, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 145.1, last season: 128.3)

85. Logan Cooley, C, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 144.8, last season: 138.0)

86. Kevin Fiala, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 144.4, last season: 149.2)

87. Gabriel Landeskog, W, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 144.3, last season: N/A)

88. Simon Holmstrom, W, New York Islanders: (projected: 143.8, last season: 109.8)

89. Pavel Dorofeyev, W, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 143.6, last season: 142.1)

90. Bryan Rust, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 142.6, last season: 157.3)

91. Brock Nelson, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 142.5, last season: 131.2)

92. Eeli Tolvanen, W, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 141.5, last season: 130.4)

93. Anthony Cirelli, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 141.4, last season: 146.5)

94. Drake Batherson, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 140.9, last season: 158.4)

95. Jared McCann, W, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 140.8, last season: 141.5)

96. Pierre-Luc Dubois, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 140.8, last season: 144.8)

97. Andrei Svechnikov, W, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 140.5, last season: 120.7)

98. Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 139.6, last season: 115.0)

99. Aliaksei Protas, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 139.4, last season: 131.6)

100. Cole Perfetti, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 139.0, last season: 119.1)

101. Tom Wilson, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 138.7, last season: 184.7)

102. Josh Norris, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 138.6, last season: 110.2)

103. Dylan Cozens, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 138.5, last season: 130.6)

104. Will Cuylle, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 138.3, last season: 138.2)

105. Frank Vatrano, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 138.0, last season: 143.7)

106. Cutter Gauthier, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 137.5, last season: 118.3)

107. Jonathan Huberdeau, W, Calgary Flames: (projected: 137.3, last season: 155.8)

108. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 137.0, last season: 123.0)

109. Chris Kreider, W, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 136.5, last season: 93.5)

110. Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 136.4, last season: 153.9)

111. Brad Marchand, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 136.4, last season: 125.4)

112. Kent Johnson, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 135.5, last season: 117.1)

113. Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 134.9, last season: 132.4)

114. Jamie Benn, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 134.7, last season: 117.4)

Notes: Kadri started hot but flamed out last season, while Huberdeau showed signs of fantasy recovery later in the campaign. Lindholm struggled in Boston, and Kreider gets a fresh start with the Ducks after a tough stretch.

However, above them all from the perspective of reclamation, stands Landeskog, preparing for his first regular season game since April 2022. He looked solid in a handful of postseason games this past spring, but it's hard to predict exactly what he'll deliver fantasy-wise over a full season.

With Vatrano, Gauthier and Kreider, the 32nd NHL team finally makes its debut.

Dorofeyev could be a major sleeper if the Golden Knights end up using Eichel and Marner on the top line, as he is arguably the top candidate to join them.

Tier 9: Still some diamonds in the rough

115. Jonathan Marchessault, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 134.4, last season: 130.2)

116. Tyler Toffoli, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 134.0, last season: 136.2)

117. Kiefer Sherwood, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 133.4, last season: 136.1)

118. Mikael Granlund, C, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 132.7, last season: 150.5)

119. Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 132.2, last season: 128.1)

120. Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 131.2, last season: 142.2)

121. Mathieu Olivier, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 131.2, last season: 132.4)

122. Mats Zuccarello, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 129.9, last season: 123.4)

123. Anders Lee, W, New York Islanders: (projected: 129.8, last season: 142.3)

124. Trevor Moore, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 129.8, last season: 96.9)

125. William Eklund, W, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 129.0, last season: 128.0)

126. Matt Coronato, W, Calgary Flames: (projected: 128.7, last season: 119.6)

127. Ryan Donato, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 128.4, last season: 137.6)

128. Jake DeBrusk, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 128.4, last season: 136.1)

129. Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 128.3, last season: 109.5)

130. Patrik Laine, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 127.4, last season: 90.7)

131. Frank Nazar, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 126.6, last season: 70.6)

132. Marco Kasper, C, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 126.5, last season: 112.1)

133. Jimmy Snuggerud, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 126.1, last season: 8.8)

134. Dmitri Voronkov, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 125.8, last season: 119.4)

135. Mason McTavish, C, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 125.7, last season: 120.5)

136. Ivan Demidov, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 125.5, last season: 3.7)

137. Nick Schmaltz, C, Utah Hockey Club: (projected: 125.3, last season: 137.9)

138. Claude Giroux, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 124.5, last season: 115.2)

139. Patrick Kane, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 124.4, last season: 125.4)

140. Yegor Chinakhov, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 123.9, last season: 41.0)

141. Trevor Zegras, C, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 123.8, last season: 74.3)

142. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 123.8, last season: 113.7)

Notes: By this stage of the draft, you should have a full complement of nine forwards. In 12-team leagues of standard size, this is the time to add bench depth and target breakout potential. If you've already taken some risks, consider steady contributors like Marchessault, Bennett or Schmaltz.

Recap

When you sit down to tier using whatever ranking you choose, keep this guidance in mind:

• Tier 1-2: Locked-in elite, must-have producers. Low risk, high reward.

• Tier 3-4: Top-line contributors with some volatility -- balance upside with reliability.

• Tier 5-6: Bankable talent and bounce-back candidates -- steady contributors with some upside.

• Tier 7-8: High-upside swings and reclamation projects -- good for bold moves or filling gaps.

• Tier 9 or later: Late-round bench players or lottery tickets -- low risk if you're replacing them, but potential upside if a player breaks out.

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