Duke stirs CFP pot, calls for bid as ACC champion

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Duke defensive end Wesley Williams said he heard the refrain throughout the run-up to Saturday's ACC championship game: A Blue Devils win would be "a doomsday scenario."

At 7-5 and unranked, Duke arrived in Charlotte with a chance to win the conference and, in doing so, knock the ACC out of the College Football Playoff entirely, with two teams from the Group of 5 -- Tulane and James Madison -- potentially making it instead.

Well, doomsday has arrived, thanks to a series of fourth-down calls by Duke coach Manny Diaz, including one in overtime that resulted in the game-winning touchdown in a 27-20 Blue Devils win.

"Coach Diaz said this week, 'If you think people hate Duke now, just wait until we win the ACC,'" Williams said.

The ACC's fifth tie-breaker -- combined win percentage of conference opponents -- sent Duke to the league's title game from among five teams tied for second place in the standings, including Miami, a team on the fringe of an at-large CFP bid that could have benefited significantly from an extra game to wow the selection committee.

Instead, it was Duke that got the chance to avenge a Nov. 15 loss to Virginia and make its own case for playoff inclusion.

"I'm not going to take anything away from James Madison," Diaz said. "They had a really great season. ... The Sun Belt has been a really good conference in years past, but most of their top teams are having a down year. So, when you start comparing strength of schedule -- you can't just look at wins and losses. It's who you play against. That's the whole point of playing a Power 4 schedule. There's a reason all these coaches are all leaving for Power 4 jobs. There's recognition that's where the best competition is.

"The ACC champion should go to the College Football Playoff this year and every year. And we'll be very excited to see how they rule on that tomorrow."

James Madison coach Bob Chesney has accepted the head coaching position at UCLA, but he is expected to stay with the Dukes through any potential playoff run.

James Madison finished the season 12-1 but lost its lone game against a Power 4 foe 28-14 to Louisville in September. The Dukes beat Troy 31-14 on Friday to win the Sun Belt championship.

JMU athletic director Matt Roan offered a counterpoint, noting that Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett III was just coming back after a long-term injury and the Dukes still played Louisville close.

"The next week we started what is now the second-longest winning streak in the country," Roan said. "This team is clicking since that time and separated itself as one of the five best conference champions in the country after winning the Sun Belt. JMU led the nation in wins over bowl-eligible teams with seven, matching Indiana and Ohio State. We can score points and stop points with anyone in the country. Our second halves, and fourth quarter in particular, have been untouchable. Who you play matters, but more important is how you play. Our players and our coaches have been elite all season and are deserving of this opportunity."

James Madison was No. 25 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings. Duke was unranked.

Diaz said after Saturday's win, however, that the committee now has a more complete body of work to consider.

According to ESPN's metrics, James Madison has the No. 18 strength of record but the No. 123 strength of schedule. Duke entered Saturday's game with the No. 59 strength of record and the No. 74 strength of schedule. Two of the Blue Devils' losses are to teams outside the Power 4 too -- playoff hopeful Tulane and 9-3 UConn.

"Having been on the selection committee, I understand it's complicated," Duke athletic director Nina King said. "I think we're deserving when you look at some of these numbers like strength of schedule, number of Power 4 teams we've played and won. I think we're deserving, but I fully appreciate the challenge [for the committee]."

The ACC's doomsday scenario was in some ways more of a "Mission: Impossible." After Duke lost to Virginia in Week 11, the Blue Devils were +1800 to win the conference and, according to ESPN's FPI, had just a 3.8% chance of winning the ACC.

Now, the conference will wait for the committee to deliver a verdict on both Duke and No. 12 Miami on Sunday. The Hurricanes are 10-2 but have consistently been ranked behind several other two-loss teams, including Notre Dame, a team the Canes beat in Week 1 of the season.

"Miami should get in," Diaz said after Saturday's win. "The head-to-head should matter. And so should we because we're the conference champion."

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips argued the same before Saturday's kickoff, but he declined to comment after Duke's win over Virginia that might have left the conference with no playoff bids.

The doomsday scenario for the ACC, however, could just as easily turn into a boon with two teams in, should the committee buy into Duke's sales pitch, and linebacker Luke Mergott, who hauled in the game-clinching interception in overtime, believes it will.

"We represent the ACC, and the ACC is a respected conference," Mergott said. "I think we'll be in, and I'm confident our name will be called."