Don't be surprised if ... Cooper Flagg finishes as a top-25 fantasy option, Jalen Green averages 20 PPG

Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised.

Don't be surprised if ... Dallas Mavericks SF/PG/PF Cooper Flagg finishes as a top-25 fantasy option this season

Flagg averaged 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG and more than one steal, block and 3-pointer in December while shooting 51.6% from the field and 80.8% from the line. Those are top-20 fantasy numbers, quite easily. Nobody is averaging every one of those numbers for the season. There are 25 players averaging 23.5 PPG per game. Most of them are relevant in rebounds, 3-pointers and steals, but they don't do all these things consistently, including hitting half their field goal attempts, either. They are all also considerably older than Flagg, who recently turned 19.

We can see inconsistency and passiveness on a game-by-game basis, and that can be frustrating for fantasy managers, and it occasionally appears that Flagg is more comfortable blending in on offense. He isn't always assertive. That figures to change in the second half of this season because these Mavericks are not winning the championship, and they will not have C/PF Anthony Davis on the court. Flagg, who missed a pair of games recently with a left ankle sprain, scored an easy 18 points at Madison Square Garden (in a win!) on Monday. His January numbers (scoring, mainly) do not match his December ones, but we know what he can achieve, and it is remarkable.

I fully admit I was generally fading Flagg on draft day at an ESPN ADP of 25, because, well, he was 18 years old, and it was asking a lot for him to be a top-25 statistical player so quickly. The Mavericks had a crew of big men to handle roughness and rebounding in the paint (Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II), and one presumed someone the size and skill level of a typical NBA point guard would handle that role (D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Williams, Ryan Nembhard) until Kyrie Irving (knee) returned to play. Today, Flagg is the big man and, at times, the facilitator of offense.

Flagg leads the 18-26 Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists and steals, and he may do so in blocks, too. It is quite safe to say Flagg is outperforming even the loftiest of expectations, even as a teenager, and he is clearly a fantasy building block, not only for future seasons, but this one.

Don't be surprised if ... Phoenix Suns SG Jalen Green averages 20 PPG ... and Dillon Brooks does not

Fantasy managers didn't exactly forget about Green, but they could have. Green scored 2,600 fantasy points for the Houston Rockets last season, a top-50 figure, and fantasy managers expected similar production for Phoenix after the mammoth offseason Kevin Durant trade. Instead, Green suffered a right hamstring strain in early October, missed the first few weeks of the season, finally debuted and in his second game, he hurt it worse. Green participated in only his third game of the season Tuesday, coming off the bench in a win over the Philadelphia 76ers. He scored 15 fantasy points while dealing with a minutes restriction.

Green will not be coming off the bench for long, and it will be interesting to see how this changes fantasy value for other Suns. Green is going to play at least 30 minutes per night as a starter, he will see ample shots, and he will be valuable to fantasy managers. As of Wednesday morning, Green remained available in 23% of ESPN standard leagues. He isn't PG/SG Devin Booker, of course, but there is no way overachieving Brooks (who shot 2-of-13 Tuesday) will continue to earn 17 field goal attempts per game, or he will score 20 PPG. Surprise PG Collin Gillespie can't keep averaging 32 fantasy points, either. He figures to go to a reserve role.

While Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, ultimately underachieved for fantasy during his Rockets days because what he mainly did was hit 3-pointers and score, he will be the No. 2 Suns player from here on out. It's not like Brooks is doing much rebounding or passing, either. In fact, these players are quite similar in that respect. There are 42 players averaging 20 PPG; only Brooks gives us fewer than 3.5 RPG and 2.0 APG. Green surely will perform better than that.

Other thoughts

• I get why fantasy managers are adding Golden State Warriors PF Jonathan Kuminga, because he is offensively skilled and one would think the team must play him after the season-ending injury to SF/SG/PF Jimmy Butler III (knee). In fact, coach Steve Kerr played Kuminga for 21 minutes in Tuesday's blowout home loss to the Toronto Raptors. It was Kuminga's first game in more than a month, and he scored 31 fantasy points. Still, I don't think the Warriors want Kuminga on the team. I bet he is on another team within two weeks, and it's anyone's guess if he provides fantasy numbers there. I am fading this situation.

  What concerns me more about the Warriors losing Butler -- and any semblance of a strong defense, as was apparent Tuesday -- is what happens with PG Stephen Curry in March/April, as the team clings to a Western Conference play-in spot but may view a spot in the lottery as more enticing. Curry, who turns 38 in mid-March, may sit games because it is in the team's best interest (like Washington's Trae Young, who may not play at all), and same goes for PF/C Draymond Green, though he has never been less valuable for fantasy purposes. Curry averages 44.2 fantasy points, a top-20 figure. In a season with so many postseason injuries affecting the following season (Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, etc.), will the Warriors want Curry to suit up regularly in the closing weeks?

• Desperate for rebounds in a super deep dynasty roto league (thank you, injured Zach Edey and sporadic Andre Drummond), I turned to Mavericks rookie C Moussa Cisse and Sacramento Kings rookie C Dylan Cardwell. It is hardly ideal, but the energetic Cisse looks great, with 48 rebounds and 10 blocks over five games, and Cardwell has his moments, too. This is a league with a FAAB budget, so there is little risk in throwing a dollar out there every Sunday night for a young player that may make good, efficient use of minutes and be worth relying on. I did this in recent seasons with Drummond and last year with Charlotte Hornets C Moussa Diabate, and it worked. Diabate averages 8.4 RPG. Perhaps the Mavericks bury Cisse when Gafford (ankle) returns to health, but they should not.

• Orlando Magic PG/SG Anthony Black didn't intrigue me much when he came off the bench for the first six weeks of the season. He averaged 12.8 PPG and 3.1 APG in that role, shooting 45.8% from the field and 68.4% from the line. Eh. Everything has changed now, and it is surprising he remains available in 35% of ESPN leagues. Black, now in his third NBA season after being the No. 6 pick in 2023, averages 18.7 PPG as a starter, and 5.0 APG. He shoots better, too. Perhaps he just didn't like being a reserve? The most stunning number is the 6-foot-7 Black averaging 6.4 APG in January, while also hitting 49.5% of field goals and 82.1% of free throws. This is a top 30 fantasy producer over the past 30 days.