Champions League: Arsenal still perfect; top-8 fight getting messy

The penultimate matchday of the Champions League league phase was quite the random outcome generator. The less sense you tried to make of things, the better.

Manchester City getting sliced and diced by Bodo/Glimt in Pep Guardiola's first trip to the Arctic Circle? Sure! Sporting CP scoring twice in the last 20 minutes and beating PSG? OK! Ten-man Copenhagen generating basically all of the good second-half opportunities and taking points from a Napoli team that is now threatened with elimination? Makes sense!

Athletic Club, having scored four goals in 6.5 matches, scoring three in 16 minutes to steal three points and send Atalanta from a potential third to 13th in the table? Of course! Tottenham Hotspur, with dismal form and a coach (Thomas Frank) on the brink of getting fired, completely dominating Borussia Dortmund to move quite a bit higher in the Champions League table (fifth) than the Premier League table (14th)? Why not? Qarabag pulled another dramatic upset? Figures!

The result of this batch of nonsense: We head into the final matchday of the league phase with only two teams guaranteed of a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16 (Arsenal and Bayern Munich), and only four teams with no chance of advancing to the knockouts (Kairat Almaty, Slavia Prague and terribly disappointing Villarreal and Eintracht Frankfurt). The other 30 teams have stakes to play for.

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The table, and the top remaining storylines

Here's what the enormous league phase table currently looks like, with each team's points and goal differential, plus their odds of both advancing to the round of 16 and winning the title, per xStandings.com.

Almost everyone has something to play for. With 10 teams clogged in at 12 or 13 points, the race for a top-eight finish should end up pretty messy next week and with eight teams at either eight or nine points, it could be the same story for the final spots in the 24-team knockout rounds. When people were advocating for the so-called Swiss Model -- the wide-open schedule and table that replaced the old group stage -- this is what they were hoping to see. Of 18 final-matchday matches next Wednesday, only one (Kairat's trip to Arsenal) doesn't really have any stakes.

Arsenal remain perfect. Technically, Bayern could still end up atop the table if Kairat pull an all-time upset at the Emirates next week, but the odds are obviously very much in Arsenal's favor for that one. In fact, the odds favor them ending up a perfect 8-for-8 in the league phase. With virtually every other super club (besides Bayern) battling ups and downs this season, Arsenal, with their defense, newfound depth and unholy set-piece capabilities, have been the sport's sure thing.

Big Five clubs on the brink. A surprising draw against 10-man Copenhagen dropped Napoli to 25th in the table. Only 24 advance to the knockout rounds. With Villarreal and Eintracht Frankfurt already eliminated after sustained duds, and with Athletic Club far from guaranteed a spot -- their comeback win at Atalanta boosted them to 23rd, but they play smoking hot Sporting CP next week -- it's possible that quite a few teams from Big Five leagues fail to advance to the knockouts. Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco aren't totally out of the water yet, either.

About 16 teams still have a shot at a top-eight finish. Atletico Madrid and Atalanta both blew prime opportunities to move up into the top five and are instead very much stuck in the kludgy mess of teams with 13 points. While Arsenal and Bayern have clinched top-eight finishes and Liverpool have almost done so, no one else is entirely safe from the round-of-24 playoff. The live table is going to be bouncing all over the place during next Wednesday's all-at-once action.

Ranking all 36 teams after Matchday 7

We know what the table looks like, in all its messy glory. But who's actually good right now? Here's my ranking of each Champions League team, 1 through 36.

(Note: These rankings are based on my opinions for where teams stand at the moment: it's not intended to directly reflect the current table.)

1. Arsenal. According to StatsPerform data, Arsenal have scored 25 set-piece goals in all competitions, and in the 18 matches from which these goals came, the Gunners have won 17 (plus one draw). So basically, Gabriel Jesus' 31st-minute goal against Inter at the San Siro, which came off of a corner and put Arsenal up 2-1, ended the match. I'm not sure why they even had to play the other 59 minutes (though it gave Victor Gyokeres a chance to join in the scoring, too).

2. Bayern München. They overran RB Leipzig last weekend with both nonstop chance creation and strong finishing (five goals from shots worth 4.6 xG), but while the former wasn't much of an issue against Union Saint-Gilloise, the latter lacked. I forgot it was even possible for Harry Kane to miss a penalty, but he did so, and Bayern scored just twice from shots worth 3.1 xG.

Of course, Kane did still score twice, and if you keep generating over 3.0 xG in every match, you're probably going to end up alright. Bayern are positioned well for a pretty friendly knockout-round draw.

3. Barcelona (up 7 spots since Matchday 6). Slavia Prague did an excellent job of gumming up the Barcelona attack and not allowing very many high quality opportunities -- of Barca's 20 shot attempts, only two were worth more than 0.1 xG. But Robert Lewandowski tapped one of those high-quality chances in, Dani Olmo scored on a long-range screamer, and Barca drew six offsides and didn't allow anything good in transition after Vasil Kusej's early goal.

Barca did their job, and with so many other teams in this area of the rankings failing to do that lately, they're suddenly up to third here.

4. Real Madrid (up 3). What's the best way to release some tension when you're wobbling all over the place, you just fired your celebrated new manager, Xabi Alonso, after just half a season and your fans are booing both your players and your club president? Play a team in even worse form than you! Monaco has lost eight of its last 14 in all competitions (five by multiple goals) and Real Madrid absolutely laid waste to them, 6-1, getting an early brace from Kylian Mbappé and glorious goals from Vinícius Júnior and, for the first time in the Champions League, Franco Mastantuono.

Granted, they allowed Monaco to attempt 20 shots and generate 1.4 xG, but attacking is fun, and Real Madrid did that nonstop (25 shots, 3.9 xG).

Mbappe's brace gave him 11 goals in the competition; that's so far ahead of the field that he's comfortably generated the most combined goals and assists in the Champions League ... with zero assists.

5. PSG (down 1). This time last year, PSG's transition into World's Best Club was well underway. Between late November 2024 and mid-April 2025, they lost just once. They've currently lost twice since January 12. They were xG'd a bit in their 2-1 loss to Sporting -- their 28 shots generated 1.4 xG while Sporting's 10 generated just 0.9 -- and Achraf Hakimi hasn't yet returned to the squad following AFCON heartbreak. But we're still waiting for fifth gear here, in both Champions League play and Ligue 1 (where they still trail Lens by a point).

6. Inter Milan. There's no shame in losing at Atletico Madrid (2-1) or to Liverpool (1-0) and Arsenal (3-1) at home, but those are Inter's last three Champions League results. They're unbeaten in their last 11 non-UEFA matches, so we can't say they lack confidence, but they now need a result at Borussia Dortmund in Matchday 8 to secure a top-eight finish after starting the league phase with four straight wins.

7. Manchester City (down 4). City finished 2025 on an eight-game winning streak and looked like they were just about back into Prime City range. Since then they've won only two of their past seven. Falling to Manchester United and Bodo/Glimt, each by multiple goals, certainly wasn't what I've predicted this week. Things could improve when new signee Marc Guéhi is up to speed, but their transition defense looks about as poor as it ever has. (Then again, I've said that a lot in the last 14 months or so.)

8. Liverpool (up 6). Mo Salah missed a pretty high-value chance but created value with his passing, while Alexis Mac Alister and Ryan Gravenberch were excellent in midfield, and Dominik Szoboszlai did something we're growing awfully accustomed to at this point.

When Liverpool are avoiding transition breakdowns, they're still awfully good. They limited Marseille's opportunities and turned a potentially tricky road trip into a comfortable 3-0 win.

9. Newcastle (up 3). Sustainability has been an issue for Newcastle this season -- for every tremendous performance, there's been an equally frustrating one like, say, last Sunday's scoreless draw with Wolves (or the meek 2-0 defeat a few days before that). But when they look good, they are fabulous, and Wednesday's 3-0 win over PSV went in the "fabulous" category. They weren't peppering Matej Kovar's goal with endless chances, but every chance they created was great; both Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes scored (they've combined for 21 goals in all competitions this season), and with a goal and an assist, Yoane Wissa put together his best performance in a Newcastle shirt in only 26 touches.

Dominant stuff.

10. Chelsea (down 5). Pafos have proved to be awfully annoying to play in this competition -- outside of a 5-1 loss to Bayern that got away from them, they've allowed just seven goals in eight matches -- so simply handling business and taking three points was decent for Chelsea. But after managing only two wins in their previous eight matches, it was fair to hope for a bit more than an average of 0.09 xG per shot and zero goals from open play.

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Have Chelsea secured Champions League qualification after victory vs. Pafos?

The ESPN "FC TV" crew reacts to Chelsea's 1-0 victory over Pafos FC in the UEFA Champions League.

11. Tottenham Hotspur (down 3). In their past 10 matches in all competitions, Spurs have won three matches -- two in two Champions League matches and one in the other eight. That's not quite how that's supposed to go. Granted, Borussia Dortmund were poor from the start and got a red card in the 26th minute, but Spurs established superiority and played the type of poised, creative ball that we haven't seen very much of under Thomas Frank.

12. Atletico Madrid (down 3). Diego Simeone's side controlled the game at Galatasaray, producing shots worth 1.4 to their hosts' 0.5, but a dire Marcos Llorente own goal in the 20th minute meant they had to settle for a draw. A win would've boosted them to fifth, but now they're part of the giant 13-point morass.

13. Borussia Dortmund (down 2). They were done in against Spurs by a 26th-minute red card for Daniel Svensson, but make no mistake: They were awful before that, too. And that pretty much snuffed out any hope of a bye to the round of 16.

14. Sporting CP (up 5). Want to make yourself a giant pain in the butt in a knockout-round scenario? Always win at home. Sporting have taken 12 points from four Champions League home matches, including Tuesday's 2-1 victory over PSG, and they're very much in the mix for a top-eight finish because of it. (Granted, they also have one point from three away matches, but we're focusing on the positives here.)

Since Oct. 1, they haven't lost in Primeira Liga play, and they've only lost to Bayern in the Champions League. This is an awfully good team, and 28-year-old Luis Suárez has become quite the late bloomer -- he had never scored more than eight goals in a season with a first-division side, and he has 22 goals for Sporting in January. That includes a brace against PSG.

15. Atalanta (down 2). Like Atletico, Atalanta had a fantastic chance to move pretty high up the table and give themselves great odds of skipping to the round of 16. They even took a 1-0 home lead against Athletic Club, and they only allowed four shot attempts all evening.

Of course, three of those shots went into the net in short succession, as their 1-0 lead became an intensely frustrating 3-2 loss. They'll need a win at Union Saint-Gilloise to have a shot at the top eight.

16. Juventus (up 2). When Juventus play against a Jose Mourinho team, stereotypes suggest a slugfest with minimal high-quality scoring chances. In fact, there were only three shot attempts all game worth over 0.1 xG and only two worth over 0.2. Benfica missed a penalty, and Weston McKennie -- who never seems to miss in the Champions League -- placed his high-quality chance (0.64 xG) in the net.

McKennie has scored in three straight Champions League appearances. May "Big Game Wes" make plenty of World Cup appearances this summer.

17. Bayer Leverkusen (down 2). It was overshadowed by other duds, and they definitely got cursed by the xG gods a bit (xG: Leverkusen 2.6, Olympiacos 1.0), but woof, what a poor result for the Bundesliga side Leverkusen on Tuesday. The loss eliminated them from a potential top-eight finish, meaning it's round-of-24 or nothing for Kasper Hjulmand's squad. Christian Kofane, Lucas Vázquez and Patrik Schick combined for five shots worth 2.0 xG and put three of them on goal, but none went in. (Creating high-value chances is a good thing, at least.)

18. Marseille (down 2). They suffered their worst loss of the season Wednesday at home against Liverpool, though the underlying xG figures (Liverpool 1.5, OM 0.9) were less damning. They're very likely to advance to the playoff round, and they've basically looked like a borderline round-of-16 team for the entire competition.

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Was Liverpool's victory vs. Marseille their best performance of the season?

The ESPN 'FC TV' crew react to Liverpool's dominant 3-0 victory over Marseille in the UEFA Champions League.

19. Galatasaray (up 2). After losses to Union Saint-Gilloise and Monaco, Galatasaray really needed a result against Atletico Madrid and immediately fell behind thanks to a fourth-minute goal from Atletico's Giuliano Simeone. After that, a 1-1 draw probably felt pretty acceptable. Still, they scored only on an own goal, and the duo of Victor Osimhen and Leroy Sané combined for zero shot attempts. Not great.

20. Monaco (down 3). Woof. Monaco have fallen to ninth in Ligue 1, and after Tuesday's 6-1 face-plant against Real Madrid, they've allowed 30 goals in their last 15 matches in all competitions. They're still pretty fun to watch in attack, but a season-long finishing funk -- their players have scored 39 goals from shots worth 53.0 xG -- has made them pretty frustrating in that regard too. The whole is less than the sum of the parts right now, and passage to the knockout rounds isn't guaranteed if they don't get a result against Juventus.

21. PSV (down 1). I admire how PSV doesn't play it safe. They're going to attack and attack, and that has allowed them to both destroy Napoli and Liverpool by a combined 10-3 while also losing to Union Saint-Gilloise and Newcastle by a combined 6-1. They're right on the in-or-out border, which is scary with Bayern coming to town next week. But the great version of PSV can beat anyone, at least.

22. Olympiacos (up 2). They attempted only six shots against Bayer Leverkusen. Just two of them were on target, but both went in the net; both were also assisted by Rodinei, who's enjoying the first Champions League action of his career at age 33. The win was unlikely from an xG perspective, but now they have a greater than 50% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds, per Opta's supercomputer.

23. Club Brugge (up 3). Brugge have enjoyed some delightful and prolific performances in this tournament -- 4-1 over Monaco in Matchday 1, 3-3 vs. Barcelona in Matchday 4, and now, after a couple of duds (both domestically and in the Champions League), 4-1 over Kairat. They'll need to beat Marseille to advance, but if the goal spigot is turned on, their odds are strong.

24. Bodo/Glimt (up 1). I'm not sure I will ever get enough of teams from Big Five leagues going up to the Arctic Circle to play Bodo/Glimt and finding themselves in hell. I can't say I expected it to happen to Manchester City, however.

Kasper Høgh bags a brace in three minutes to put Bodo/Glimt in dreamland 🤯 pic.twitter.com/GiZNC5LMhD

They'll need a win at Atletico Madrid to have a chance at advancing, which I'm guessing isn't likely, but between this and draws against Spurs and Borussia Dortmund, you can't say their campaign has been unmemorable (even if it maybe played a role in them falling one point short of a domestic title).

25. Qarabag (up 3). The Cinderella of this year's Champions League ball lives in Azerbaijan.

BAHLUL MUSTAFAZADA WINS IT FOR QARABAĞ FK WITH THE LAST KICK OF THE GAME 🤯 pic.twitter.com/GWkcdvCrJ8

Qarabag are almost guaranteed to advance to the knockout rounds, but with the success they've had to date, they probably aren't ruling out a result at Anfield next week. And hey, if Liverpool aren't all the way dialed in ...

26. Napoli (down 3). It's been a pretty dismal campaign for Napoli in this competition. This is clearly a solid team -- third in Serie A (only six points out of first), winner of the Supercoppa Italiana, still alive in the Coppa Italia -- but they've given up at least two goals in three Champions League matches, and allowing one to 10-man Copenhagen on Tuesday was almost even worse. Without at least a draw against Chelsea next week (and maybe more), they don't advance.

27. Benfica (down 5). Benfica's Champions League form has been solid since Mourinho took over in late September: In six matches, they've generated the positive xG differential five times, including on Wednesday against Juve. But they've won only two of those matches -- they've turned shots worth 7.6 xG into only four goals in that span -- and they're going to need to beat Real Madrid and get some help to advance in the competition. Not incredibly likely.

28. Union Saint-Gilloise (up 1). They've hinted at solid firepower throughout the competition -- especially players like Promise David (16 shots, eight shots on goal and two goals from 3.0 xG in seven matches) and Anan Khalaili (by far the most chances created and defensive interventions on the team). But they just haven't had the defense. Their 17 goals allowed are the fourth-most in the competition, better than only Kairat (19), Ajax (19) and the sieve known as Eintracht Frankfurt.

29. Athletic Club (up 3). After starting the competition with three losses in four, Athletic have dug themselves out of a hole, and the stunning comeback against Atalanta moved them right to the borderline for advancing.

It's not really how I expected this match to go considering that whole "They went 57 minutes without attempting a shot" thing.

30. Copenhagen (up 1). After generating nothing against Napoli -- literally nothing, zero shot attempts -- for 60 minutes, and after going a man down thanks to Thomas Delaney's 35th-minute red card, Copenhagen generated 1.6 xG from just five shots the rest of the way. They nearly scored in the 61st minute and then tied the game with a Jordan Larsson penalty putback in the 72nd. They fended Napoli off despite a late field-tilting barrage, and they secured a huge eighth point, though advancing to the knockouts will likely require at least a point at Barcelona.

31. Eintracht Frankfurt (down 4). As it turns out, firing manager Dino Toppmoller didn't immediately solve Eintracht's defensive woes. With Wednesday's 3-2 loss to Qarabag, they've now won just one of their last 10 matches, and they've allowed 28 goals in their last 11. Fun young attackers will evidently only take you so far.

32. Ajax (up 2). Credit where it's due: Ajax haven't quit. They lost their first five Champions League matches by a combined 16-1, but away wins against Qarabag (4-2) and Villarreal (2-1) have allowed them to take a sliver of hope for advancing into their final match against Olympiacos. Twenty-year-old winger Mika Godts (12 progressive carries, seven progressive passes, 17 ground-duels with a 59% success rate) was an absolute ball-progression menace on Tuesday.

33. Pafos (down 3). They'll need a pretty big win over Slavia Prague and a lot of help to advance to the knockout rounds, but I've been immensely impressed with Pafos' ability to define their identity and force others to play their game. I've written this a million times in these recaps, but no league punches above its weight class like the Cypriot First Division. Pafos just needed a bit more firepower - it's a miracle that they have any chance of advancing after scoring four goals in seven matches.

34. Villarreal (down 1). Maybe the most befuddling team in this year's Champions League field. Villarreal are averaging the third-most points per game in LaLiga this season -- slightly ahead of Atletico -- and are well on their way toward qualifying for next year's competition. But they've managed one point from seven matches in the Champions League and couldn't even tie Ajax at home. A totally wasted campaign.

35. Slavia Prague. They haven't been able to keep up with the stronger teams in this competition, but they played well against Barca, and they'll have one last chance to score a league phase win at Pafos.

36. Kairat Almaty. This has obviously been a pretty dismal league phase campaign for Kairat, but individual triumphs are still pretty cool. Midfielder Adilet Sadybekov scored a long-range screamer in stoppage time against Club Brugge, when Kairat was already down 4-0, and the crowd celebrated it like a match-winner. I'm a sucker for that stuff.